There are signs that Belarus is preparing for war.
7.05.2024
The Lukashenka regime updated its military doctrine, allowing the country’s armed forces to participate in hostilities on the side of “friendly” states.
What are Belarusians trained for? Charter97.org spoke to a Belarusian officer about this on condition of anonymity:
— Among the highest military ranks and ideologists, I think, this is not the question. They are really preparing to fight on the side of Russia. But this is far from the entire Belarusian army.
The highest ranks were trained by Soviet and Russian military schools, where from the first year they talked about “enemies from NATO”. This is already a certain system of values, a mindset.
Ideologists have a job to do. And they do not fight, they have another task. Mid-level officers, junior officers, these people are clearly not eager to fight anywhere, not to mention privates.
Is it worth worrying about the fact that they are somehow reshaping this “military doctrine”? I think we need to worry. After all, there is a methodical preparation of the Belarusian legal framework to participate in the war. Why was the clause on the nuclear-free status of our country removed from the Constitution? Why are all these exercises held, territorial defence forces were created, there are constant drills and rumors about the closure of the border for conscripts, and SMS summons.
These are all signs of preparation for war. Another question is that we can slip through. However, every Belarusian officer should think about what he will do if war breaks out and be ready.
— What preparations did you personally make?
— I changed the expiring passport and reserved some money. Contacts for surrender to the Armed Forces of Ukraine were recorded (I know that these data are in the phones of many Belarusian officers). I think the most important thing is to be ready morally. I will say that many Belarusian troops have “survival kits”.
— What do you need to be ready for?
— Resist the will of others, resist the execution of criminal orders. There are many books on countering psychological pressure. The pressure at such moments is enormous.
In such cases, it is better to act together. In the event of such an order, I would advise the entire unit to go to the officer at once and say that you refuse to follow the order.
— Do you think they will close the borders for conscripts, which has been increasingly talked about lately?
— Such conversations are going on. And I am inclined to believe that the authorities will take such a step. After all, this is a global action. It is easiest to test the closure of borders on conscripts, and there to tighten up other categories of citizens who will be needed.
Again, if you are acutely faced with the question of not serving in the Belarusian army — make minimal preparations. Change your passport, if it expires, make a visa.
I think that in Russia everything is also going to the fact that a new mobilization will be carried out. Actions to close the borders may be coordinated.
The Belarusian army doesn’t look like an army ready, willing, and able to fight, especially against the Ukrainians. The biggest majority would surrender, escape, or revolt. Luka knows this. So, maybe these “preparations” of the Belarusian military are meant only to appease the smelly gutter rat in muscovy … to buy time.
Ukraine should just march into the country. I dare to say that it would be a virtual walk in the park.
My suspicion, too. Seems to me that Lukashenko risks so much in denying Putin active participation in the war because he’s afraid his army may rather turn against him. Still, the RuSSian madman is so desperate now that he may replace his Belarussian minion with a bootlicking puppet and order the attack. Nato needs to get ready for this. Old mustache’s army certainly ain’t on the combat level of the RuSSkies, but I’m afraid the quite inexperienced Nato troops (fighting insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan is a whole different matter) aren’t really ready for this, neither. After Nato’s announcement of red lines, the organisation needs to prepare for a speedy deployment at adequate strength. Half assed measures, like undermanned and measly supllied units reaching the theatre after a full ten days, could be disastrous. Ci vis pacem, para bellum! ✊😠
NATO troops should allow Ukrainians to show them how to fight a real war. The only action seen by most NATO troops is in exercises involving counter terrorism.
Indeed, that’s my concern, my friend. And also that many among Nato’s brass have arrogant delusions about their forces’ combat strength against the RuSSians, which have two years more of bloodily earned war experiences. Tbh, I fear it will be WWI all over again, when overconfident Allied troops mounted trains with slogans like “vacation travel to Berlin”, only to end up in massacres. Any realistic preparation for this mission requires training based on Ukrainian experiences! 🤨
Mr. Potato head has been in a precarious situation ever since the war started. It’s downright baffling how he managed to keep out of the war, so far.