The news two railway lines have been destroyed shows a new strategy designed to hurt Putin and degrade Moscow’s ability to wage war
29 April 2024 • 3:33pm
Sometimes the metaphors write themselves. As Putin purportedly seeks to showcase the illusion of Russian strength by parading a captured British Saxon armoured personnel carrier from the 1970s in Red Square – donated to Ukraine in 2015 from mothballed British stocks – Ukrainian saboteurs are deep behind Russian lines actually doing the business.
Whereas Russia is desperate to display ‘destroyed’ western kit, Ukraine is hard at work eroding Russian capacity and, crucially, hitting Moscow where it hurts – inside its own borders. The news today that two railway lines in Russia have been destroyed is a clear example of an evolving strategy designed to hurt a security-obsessed Putin and degrade Moscow’s ability to wage war.
One train was set on fire in Orenburg, 1,100 kilometers east of the Ukrainian border, by “unknown persons” on 28 April. Another was destroyed in a fire in the Russian city of Vladikavkaz, close to the border with Georgia, overnight on 26 April.
As long-awaited US military aid recently passed by Congress begins to make its way to Europe over the coming days and weeks, Russia’s war of aggression is changing, as Kyiv increases the number of guerrilla operations against Russian forces. This comes at a time of decreasing conventional operations – particularly offensive actions – due to the reduced armaments available during this spring’s Congressional budget deadlock.
Kyiv is relying on SAS-in-WW2-style operations, therefore, to make the difference on the battlefield – targeting rail networks, infrastructure and energy depots, seeking to cause death by a thousand cuts to Russia’s increasingly vulnerable and exposed critical supply lines.
This comes only one week after further likely partisan action on the border of Russia and Belarus, as suspected saboteurs set fire to two relay cabinets and burned railway equipment on the Gusino-Krasnoe section in the Smolensk region of western Russia, on the route to Moscow.
The Russian rail network has been critical for Russia throughout the war, with the Kremlin often relying on trains to ferry tens of thousands of troops and enormous amounts of artillery and armoured vehicles to the front.
As Kyiv has had to grapple with the existential uncertainty of continued US funding and assistance, in addition to being denied long-range German-made Taurus cruise missiles perfectly designed to destroy Russia war infrastructure, it’s little wonder Ukraine have stepped up their attacks inside Russia’s borders – something many western leaders advised caution against, fearful of potential Russian retaliation.
That caution is misplaced though. Whenever the Kremlin mouthpiece Dmitry Peskov, or even Putin himself, has vaguely threatened the West – such as when Britain announced the sending of main battle tanks to Ukraine last January – it has always resulted in a sabre-rattling…then nothing.
Rather than hamstringing Kyiv from taking action against legitimate military targets inside Russia, the West should be supporting such actions, particularly if it is still unprepared to supply weapons that will make a tangible difference to Ukraine’s defence, or if choosing to hold Ukraine economically hostage.
As Moscow continues its unrelenting scorched earth policy across Ukraine – bombing population centres and targeting cities – the brave Ukrainian people are steadfast and resolute. They will not falter. Can the same be said about Russians, as Ukraine rightly steps up legitimate attacks within Russia’s borders?
If Ukraine really wants to hit Russia where it hurts, it must increase attacks against its rail network and other core infrastructure. Oil and gas depots, too, offer ample opportunities, which is why they have made such good targets, albeit at the alleged frustration of Washington, who – absurdly – apparently feared the implications for global energy markets.
Such examples of Western weakness, tying Ukrainian hands, must end. Just imagine where we might be if we had given Kyiv the conventional weapons they asked for on Day One: they would never have had to be launching these strikes inside Russia at all. Western attempts to ‘deescalate’ the conflict have done the complete opposite.
We should remember that in the weeks and months ahead when Russia threatens retribution for ‘escalatory’ acts. The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.
Robert Clark is a senior fellow at the think tank Civitas, where he writes on defence and security. He spent nine years undertaking active service, including tours of Iraq and Afghanistan
Comment from :
Carl Martin
Putin is content to throw thousands to the slaughter because he knows Ukraine will run out of numbers before his larger population does. He also recruits from regions of Russia that in his perverse world require ethnic cleansing. So it serves two purposes. This also explains why the prisons are being emptied. If NATO persists to allow containment to continue and prevent a Ukrainian victory by giving it what it needs, this will eventually make direct NATO involvement more likely. Ukraine will run out of men. Women will then be forced to fight. The current NATO policy is not sustainable. Macron has grasped this with his talk of French troops being deployed. This is the horrific future if the Ukrainians themselves are not given the weapons to drive Russia out of their country.
Aj Arn
Excellent article, including the first Comment, by our journal, on Scholz’s lily-livered refusal to ship Taurus Cruise missiles in an obvious continued attempt to Appease the War-Criminal Tsar, in anticipation of Russian favours to be granted to Germany in future, in continuation of Merkel’s infamous and thoroughly discredited “Ostpolitik”. Not least the eventual resumption of NordStream gas at commercially-advantageous prices, thereby destroying the EU’s Common Energy Security Policy.
Richard Kelsey
Scale matters and from the outside in perspective, these attacks appear to be too few and far between to impact logistics, the frontline, or economy. Applaud everything the brave Ukrainians are doing and these operations are to be congratulated. However, more is needed and eliminating 2 trains from thousands won’t make a dent. It’s amazing they’re able to do this despite our fearful, ignorant or apathetic “leaders.”
Keep hoping to wake up and hear they’ve taken out the Bridge.
“Putin is content to throw thousands to the slaughter because he knows Ukraine will run out of numbers before his larger population does.”
The loss ratio would have to be nearly equal, but its nowhere near it, so this premise is wrong.
Prof Gerdes often talks about Ukraine achieving 2:1 as a kill ratio. But Ukraine needs 4:1 just to maintain parity. The winning ratio is 8:1 plus.
Cluster munitions in all variants would help.
As would many more attack drones and long range fires.
The kill ratio is much better than just 2:1.
Putler seems able to sustain daily losses of 1000 indefinitely.
Only when orcs start getting smoked at a constant daily rate of 2000+, will the occupation become unviable.
Burn, mafia land, burn!
Ashes to ashes, dust to dust! Let a strong wind from the west blow all that toxic shit away.
🌬🌪
“Just imagine where we might be if we had given Kyiv the conventional weapons they asked for on Day One: they would never have had to be launching these strikes inside Russia at all. Western attempts to ‘deescalate’ the conflict have done the complete opposite.”
Very wise words. And so damn frustrating to read.