09/27/2025 

There is a lot of good and bad news right now. There are advantages to this, but there are also risks. It is very tempting to filter according to your mood. To avoid a one-sided picture, let’s grab the main thing with a different sign.

1. The day before yesterday there was an airstrike on Kharkiv, something that hasn’t happened in a long time. Airstrikes on Zaporizhia continue (dozens of wounded). Today there is a massive strike on Kherson.

We have some progress on interceptor drones, the issue of resources to saturate mobile groups with them. However, these drones do not solve the problem of Russian tactical aviation.

Yesterday, a Russian Su-34 was shot down in the Zaporizhia direction. To reliably establish a “no-fly zone” in the same south, long-range air defense systems are needed, as well as F-16s with appropriate missiles. And along with them, long-range means for regularly digging up Russian airfields.

Hybrid terror by Russian drones and European aircraft is aimed, among other things, at preventing the strengthening of Ukrainian air defense/missile defense. But here the opposite logic should work.

NATO members do not shoot down Russian planes and will not. And ours shoot them down better than anyone and will. Plus, they reach the airfields. If we multiply the capabilities of the Ukrainian army, the Russian aviation simply will not have the resources to tease anyone. If you do not want anyone to make you nervous in the Baltics, give Ukraine the appropriate weapons.

2. The Russians have begun to concentrate their attacks on regional energy. They are probably delaying Kyiv for now to reduce the resonance.

Also, there are constant strikes on the railway. We practically don’t feel them thanks to the superhuman abilities of UZ employees. They are probably second only to Kharkiv utility workers in eliminating the consequences of Russian attacks.

But there is a limit to any safety margin. That’s why it makes sense to have a little insurance. A spare sandwich for the road and more time leeway in case of surprises.

It will be useful to take an inventory of chargers and lighting devices.

3. The next two months, the key internal issue is the budget. Since the mass of people have switched to the election mode, the degree of cliquishness is starting to go off scale. Here, as with the review of the front, it is worth listening to the experts. There will definitely be little pleasant, but it is not worth lying in a state of unconsciousness as a precaution.

4. According to various people, all of the above and much more is psychologically easier to bear, because there are visible results of strikes on Russia. The Ukrainian Defense Forces are responding. Diversely, painfully, regularly. There is a tendency to increase intensity.

Today, sanctions have once again been “imposed” against the Afipsky Oil Refinery (Krasnodar Territory).

Yesterday, in the Krasnodar Territory, something happened at the Eurochem-Belorichenskiye Dobriva enterprise. This is the largest chemical plant in the south of the Russian Federation, producing, among other things, raw materials for explosives and gunpowder.

The most striking episode of the last few days was the visit of the good drones of the GUR to the ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse. The Novorossiysk air defense was so happy that it attacked its own city. Well, the beautiful explosion near the oil loading pier in Tuapse is another bell for Russian exports of oil and oil products through the Black Sea. Just the day before, there were another attack on the NPS of the Kuibyshev-Tikhoretsk oil pipeline. That is, they started cutting out the cash flow from this pipe from both land and sea.

5. Why is it possible to reach the Kuban? In particular, because the enemy’s military infrastructure in Crimea is being consistently worked out.

In recent days alone, ten anti-aircraft missiles have decimated the helicopter fleet in Crimea, hitting two Be-12 amphibious aircraft and two transports. Together, the defense forces are working on Russian detection systems. All this reduces the occupiers’ ability to counter air strikes and control the water area.

6. The main topic from the Russian Federation that comes to us is fuel problems.

The introduction of sanctions against the refinery by various structures of the Defense Forces is yielding results. In addition, there are reasons to talk about the inclusion of internal Russian factors.

Kommersant recently published statistics: about 360 gas stations have stopped selling gasoline in two months. But there are big differences both by region and by type of gas station.

The so-called independent networks are suffering the most (4.1% of gas stations have stopped selling), vertically integrated companies – Rosneft, Lukoil, Gazprom-Nafta – are suffering less (0.8% of gas stations). Independents are tied to exchanges and wholesalers, they depend on uninterrupted logistics and prices. Both logistics and prices in Russia are bad now.

As a result, the most problematic federal district in terms of fuel has become the Southern Federal District, which is being dragged down by Crimea (14% of gas stations are without fuel) and Sevastopol (50%).

The occupation authorities have explained the problems in different ways, but the fact is: large Russian companies are trying to keep their distance in the occupied territories. Given the nuances of logistics and the generally “independent” nature of gas stations, Crimea and Sevastopol are doomed to a fuel shortage.

Since such a crisis has arisen, the inevitable consequence will be a partial redistribution of the fuel market, which will add to internal sparks in Russia.

7. As bad news in Russia becomes more and more prevalent, it gradually resonates, and a cumulative effect is evident.

For example, today a truck broke the rules and collided with a freight train in the Smolensk region. The train overturned, 12 fuel tanks caught fire. Which will not reach anywhere. And somewhere a local problem will arise, which will be the background to the topic of shortage.

Today, there was an explosion on a railway in the Pskov region. No one was injured, there was no traffic at the time of the explosion. From the point of view of conspiracy theory (and this is the most accurate science), spontaneous explosions without damage on railways in the Russian Federation resemble hybrid flights of some UAVs in Europe.

In general, it will now be very interesting to watch all sorts of incidents in the western regions of the Russian Federation.

8. A separate layer of atmospheric news from the Russian Federation is the difficult fate of current and former officials.

Yesterday, former (2022-2024) Chairman of the Committee for the Development of Transport Infrastructure of St. Petersburg, Alexander Fedotov, fell out of the window of a hotel at Sheremetyevo Airport. The official version is suicide. The stated reason is that he came for an interview with an employer, was rejected, got upset, and jumped out the window.

Which looks quite exotic and makes you wonder what level the refusal could have been. Because anyone familiar with transport projects in St. Petersburg in recent years can imagine what cyclopean construction projects were under Fedotov’s responsibility.

Earlier, Transport Minister Roman Starovoyt received a kind of “rejection from his employer”, and according to the official version, he shot himself.

“Employer’s refusal” in Russia is becoming a kind of analogue of a “black mark.”

Today, in the Tikhoretsk district of the Krasnodar Territory, a local deputy from United Russia, Vitaly Kapustin, was found hanged. They emphasize that he was the director of Kubanspecstroy LLC (revenue for 2024 – 936 million rubles). But he was also the chairman of the commission on agriculture and land management, utilities, transport, communications and landscaping. Rumors have already been started that he would not have been able to reach the branch on which he hanged himself without outside help. Plus, his hands were allegedly tied behind his back. Industry publications have already given an assessment – this is a redistricting in the style of the 90s.

All of this is quite unnerving for the russians. And it is a sign of drying up cash flows. When there is no room left for people in a system or extreme measures are used to resolve conflicts.

https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/poganih-novin-u-rosii-stae-bilshe.htm