Hans Petter Midttun
Nonresident fellow hos Centre of Defence Strategies
The Norwegian National Defence College Centre of Defence Strategies
May 3, 2025
At what point does the perception of defeat turn into a conviction of victory?
For years, reporting on the war in Ukraine has presented various levels of gloom. Heads of State do not always help to balance the strategic assessment. Trump recently said he believes Ukraine will be “crushed very shortly,” as it is up against Russia’s “big war machine” that it cannot defeat.
I find the statements to be often politically biased or uninformed. On 9 January, I wrote an article explaining why I am confident Russia will lose this year. Despite 100 days of Trump, I still believe in victory. My timeline has, however, shifted as US defence aid is grinding to a halt.
Why do I remain optimistic?
The scale and scope of Ukraine’s technological innovation is having a major impact on the situation on the battlefield. Over the last two years, more than 3,600 developments from 1,500 developers have been registered on the Brave1 platform. This is the coordination platform created by the Ukrainian Government to promote collaboration between all stakeholders of the defence tech industry. This includes ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones and EW systems.
The innovation is reflected on the battlefield. In April, Ukraine regained 115 positions and struck 62 targets inside Russia. This included the destruction of military facilities and the defence industry. Over the past 2 months, Ukrainian drones have struck and destroyed more than 160,000 enemy targets.
The Russian advance has slowed since November. Russian forces seized roughly 730 sq km in November 2024, 393 sq km in December, 326 sq km in January, 195 sq km in February and 143 sq km in March.
Russian losses, however, remain high. Russia’s losses amounted to 35,010 troops in April — enough to staff nearly three motorised rifle divisions. In April, Ukrainian forces destroyed or disabled 1,560 Russian artillery systems — the equivalent of 86 artillery battalions. Since the beginning of 2025, a total of 5,604 Russian artillery pieces have been destroyed or damaged.
In April, the Defence Forces also destroyed or disabled 217 Russian tanks. Since the beginning of 2025, Russia has lost 1,060 tanks in Ukraine. Last month, Ukrainian forces also destroyed or disabled 484 enemy armored fighting vehicles and 4,063 units of Russian military transport.
Still, Russia continues to push its armed forces forward for persistent destruction. The number of combat engagements on the front line increased in April compared to March: 4,647 versus 4,270. For comparison, there were 3,274 such engagements recorded in February. Since the beginning of the year, the total number has surpassed 17,000.
Russian forces suffered 125,970 killed and wounded in the first quarter of 2025.
Like Nazi-Germany, Russia has achieved some territorial gains during the first 3 years. It has, however, come at extreme costs. Like Nazi-Germany, Russia’s war of aggression is getting closer to its culmination point.
Political cartoon: Drew Sheneman
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Comment from :
Trump is on the wrong side of this issue. Russia is persistently trying to absorb Ukraine into Russia again and subjugating Ukraine for more than the 70 years it already has held sway over Ukraine. Wake up world and prevent this from happening.
Mafia land’s three-day-war with minimum casualties has been turned into a three-hundred-year-war with a potential two hundred million casualties. But, of course, it won’t last that long.