If we don’t fight two wars, we may find ourselves fighting three
13 November 2023 •
Today, the Western and allied democracies face challenges all around the world. Two of Iran’s proxies, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi rebels of Yemen, are actively engaged in war against Israel following the shocking Hamas atrocities of October 7. Iran itself is acting directly in attempts to interdict shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz, entrance to the Gulf. An even bigger war grinds on in Ukraine, where Russia has committed many of the same atrocities as Hamas – including the mass abduction of children.
Russia is benefiting significantly as Western attention is diverted from its bloody invasion and war crimes in Ukraine, and I do not believe it is a coincidence that Russia’s firm ally Iran stands behind the groups which have attacked Israel. There may not be an orchestrated plan underway, but it is not mere chance that the world’s various villains take action together to undermine the West and its allies.
Meanwhile China watches. Beijing is waiting to see if the US and UK and other Western nations have the political will, military capability, and industrial capacity to help Ukraine defeat Russia, limit the war in Gaza from spreading beyond the borders of Israel, help bring about a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine, deter Iran from further strikes against US forces in Syria, and still have enough wherewithal left to deter China from its own aggression against the Philippines or Taiwan. This will be front of mind for President Xi when he meets President Biden this week.
China, Iran and Russia share a disdain for the current international rules-based order created after World War II from which so many of us have benefited and prospered and which we now seem to take for granted. They see weakness and exploit the lack of trust and coherence in so many of our societies. They see the disastrous conclusion to the 20 years of war in Afghanistan as evidence that no nation can really trust the Western powers as reliable partners.
Ukraine now fears it may be the next to be abandoned, and with good reason. An element in US politics, specifically the extreme right wing of the Republican Party, has decided to oppose support for Ukraine, apparently for no better reason than that their domestic political opponents are in favour of it. It’s incredible to see the “Party of Reagan” using Kremlin talking points and turning their back on Ukraine which is fighting a Russian invader.
Support for Ukraine, in perpetuity if need be, ought to be a no-brainer for any American. This is not some far off regional border dispute, as one Republican Presidential Candidate described it. What’s happening in Ukraine is about so much more than Ukraine. American prosperity depends on European prosperity and European prosperity depends on stability, security, and secure food and energy supply chains. The aforementioned rules-based order is under threat from Russia and Ukraine is the front line in defending that order.
The monetary cost is trivial, a few per cent of our normal defence spending, and it is delivering enormous value for money. Russian land combat power and large parts of its air and naval capability have been nullified for a period of years at the very least: deterring that combat power by our normal methods costs us many times as much. The Ukrainians are doing the West a huge favour and fighting our battles for us at a terrible price in blood, with their hands tied behind their backs due to the limitations we have placed on them.
The other major beneficiary of Hamas’ attack on Israel is Iran. The Hamas attack on Israel has not only diverted attention and resources from Ukraine, a gift to the Kremlin. It has also severely damaged progress in the implementation of the Abraham Accords. Even those Arab nations who don’t genuinely care about the plight of innocent Palestinians, who don’t like Hamas and who do fear Iran, are unable to be seen as embracing or cooperating with Israel in light of the large number of innocent Palestinians who have been killed as a result of IDF operations in Gaza the last several weeks.
Clearly, Hamas is a terrorist organization and its use of innocent people and hospitals as shields is a war crime but the IDF is still bound under international law to protect innocent people in these operations. Hamas, and Iran, knew that the Israeli government would respond with force as a result of the savage murders of 1200 people and the abduction of over 200 others – indeed this was premeditated to elicit exactly this sort of response by the IDF in order to undermine Arab-Israeli cooperation and thus prevent a shift in the balance of power in the region against Iran.
Unfortunately, the Netanyahu government with its support for continued illegal settlements in the West Bank and its focus on destruction of Hamas as opposed to finding a peaceful solution while punishing Hamas is unlikely to make much progress anytime soon in achieving such a solution. The mission statement to the IDF of “Destroy Hamas” fails to address an actual, achievable end state or anything about who or how Gaza will be governed after the operations are concluded.
There are calls across the West for a ceasefire: an immediate end to Israel’s effort to remove Hamas from control of Gaza. President Biden is correctly resisting these calls, while at the same time encouraging Israel to continue providing operational pauses for the delivery of humanitarian aid into Gaza. He and his tireless Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, are working with other Nations to press Israel and Palestinians to move towards the elusive two-state solution. That plan needs to address the root causes of Hamas, rather than simply “mowing the grass” yet again.
As an Israeli paratroop colonel on the ground in Gaza told this paper recently:
“Jews are not going anywhere. Palestinians are not going anywhere. We need to find a way to coexist.”
That colonel evidently knows that he and his men can only deliver part of the solution. Much as some members of the Israeli ruling coalition may dislike the idea, post-Hamas Gaza will have to be run as something other than a prison. Illegal Jewish settlements must be brought to a halt. And the IDF, rightly very sparing of their soldiers’ lives, must also acknowledge that the methods they choose to use can make peace much harder or easier to achieve.
There are some hopeful notes in the Middle East. The leadership of Hezbollah seems keen not to get decisively involved, wisely perhaps as the IDF is fully mobilised with immense firepower at its disposal and “blood in its mouth”. An attack by Hezbollah would result in the loss of huge amounts of its troops and equipment for no likely gain, so the organisation’s stance is understandable.
Meanwhile it is critical that the leaders of the West, President Biden first among them, do not allow themselves to focus their entire attention on Gaza to the neglect of the other conflicts and flashpoints. The US and its allies must continue with robust freedom-of-navigation operations (FONOPS) in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, backed up by overwhelming naval and air power to ensure that China does not miscalculate American capability and resolve. The West must also stand ready to preserve freedom of navigation through the Hormuz chokepoint, and the Bab el Mandeb off Yemen with its Houthi-controlled shoreline. US action to contain the Houthis could help in bringing Saudi Arabia back to the table: it is a good sign that there are now significant US Navy and Marine resources in the Red Sea.
In Ukraine, Biden should move to end the war by arming Kyiv to win, not merely to keep fighting. The US should send the 300km-range ATACMS missile with a unitary warhead, necessary for destruction of Russian naval and air and logistics facilities in Crimea, rendering the Crimean peninsula untenable for Russian forces. This should be in addition to the shorter-ranged M39 ATACMS missile carrying cluster munitions. This will hopefully inspire Germany to provide the very effective 500km-range Taurus which would add decisive capability to Ukrainian efforts to destroy Russian headquarters, artillery, and logistics. Committing to Ukrainian victory would also accelerate the delivery to Ukraine of their promised F-16 fighters armed with a full panoply of weapons.
With all occupied Ukrainian territory under Zelensky’s guns, the Kerch bridges down and armed with proper Western air power, Ukraine would be able to make its drive to the Azov and cut off half the Russian invasion army. There would be little point fighting for the Donbas after that: the scene would be set for Ukrainian victory and rebuilding. Previously the British and French have shown that long-range weapons can be given to Ukraine without causing a Russian nuclear attack: there is no reason for timidity from President Biden or Chancellor Scholz.
It is time for the West to find its resolve. Russia’s war against Ukraine is the result of failed deterrence by the West. Putin was sure that based on our past history and unwillingness to respond with firmness to his previous aggression that we would not do anything effective, so he launched his large scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
If we show weakness again we may be inviting China to make a similar miscalculation which could lead to a far worse conflict than those now underway.
Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges served as commanding general, United States Army Europe. Previously he was a brigade commander during the 2003 invasion of Iraq
Selected DT readers’ comments:
Alternative Winker:
Absolutely agree. Israel has got more than enough military capability to defeat Hamas in the short term. They may need support in the long term to defeat Iran and the Hizbollah.
Ukraine is, and has not been given the support to win outright. Whether this is intentional, or just due to poor decision making we may never know. The fact that the GOP are using this for a domestic advantage is insane. The base they are appealing to have no idea about geopolitics and have ‘America First’ baked into their brains. They therefore can be easily manipulated and their votes won based on an anti Ukraine campaign. It is time for Europe to step up. Germany is leading the way currently, but all countries in Europe should be put onto a war footing. America is an ocean away and is clearly unable to wake from its slumber.
Michael D. Galvin:
Ron DeSantis lost my vote permanently when he described Ukraine as a far-off place most of us couldn’t find on a map (not that most Under Thirties could find China or France without Googling it but …) which is exactly how Neville Chamberlain described the Sudenten.
Elizabeth Foster:
An excellent assessment but I doubt the west is capable of the resolve to fight long term. Being too timid to give Ukraine the fighting power it needs bodes ill for the future.
Roger Radford:
When will otherwise intelligent people keep parroting the lie that Israeli settlements in the West Bank are illegal. The territories are disputed. They were part of the historical Land of Israel designated by the League of Nations in 1922 as a place where Jews had the right to settle. That decision has never been abrogated by the League’s successor, the United Nations.
A filthy, stinking troll writes :
Dave Sutton:
“It’s incredible to see the “Party of Reagan” using Kremlin talking points and turning their back on Ukraine which is fighting a Russian invader.”
Oh be quiet, neocon. The vast majority of Republicans stopped listening to your branch of the party since people realised Bush and Cheney lied their faces off about Iraq.
And the narrative of ‘Russia decided to invade Ukraine because Putin is evil’ is looking more dubious by the week, there was decades of provocation by NATO.
Alternative Winker
Reply to Dave Sutton:
NATO expanded because countries bordering Russia understood the threat that Russia poses to their freedom. They know what the Russian world brings and wanted no part of it. Is this a difficult concept to grasp? Should NATO have ignored all of these requests?
M Spooner:
Agree with everything. Israel can look after itself, but Ukraine needs far more help than it is getting. The US is spending 5% of its defence budget on Ukraine and getting great benifit without its military personnel being in harms way.
A victory for Putin would be a massive defeat for the US.
Dario O’Grady:
Put my taxes up if this helps towards exterminating Orcs, the more the merrier.
Troll: “Tom Purcell” writes:
If America took its nose out of everybody else’s business – 70 years of war mongering and resource theft – the world would be a quieter and safer place…in an instant. So, Gen Whoever You Are…we’re not interested in what you have to say. Leave us all alone.
Dario O’Grady
Reply to Tom Purcell:
Shut up ivan.
john stubbington:
Ukraine must thank Heavens for the US and the UK; the EU has high intentions but is shafted by Hungary which clearly has strong faith in Russia and obstructs EU-wide assistance to Ukraine. Thankfully some EU nations act independently.
Sam Peeps:
The West should have told Putin to get out of Ukraine or be removed more than 18 months ago.
Ronald Price:
Our priority is Ukraine, not helping Netanyahu save his political skin. If you want to get Israel to face the reality that only a two state solution will ultimately bring peace to the middle east, then Israel should not feel that it gets carte blanche to do what it wants and with an automatic flow of weapons from finite Western stock piles better employed for use in Ukraine.
Ben Hodges is absolutely correct, Israel needs to get back to the Abraham accords, normalise its relations with the Saudi’s and seriously re begin a search for a permanent settlement with the Palestinians. If Israel can destroy Hamas, well, all power to them.
But European priorities remain with the defeat of Russia in Ukraine.
Albert Lachlan:
Look up Dugin’s “Foundations of Geopolitics” if in any doubt as to why Russia attacked Ukraine.
XY XY
Reply to Albert Lachlan.
Russia signed the Budapest memorandum in 1994. Russia broke it. Russia lies, cheats and betrays ( as usual ) and oulss a lot of strings world-wide. Which cost a lot of money the Russian population will never see and have for living. So it’s not rheir dault they have to steal toilets elsewhere as it’s unaffordable luxury in this robbed country, sucked out from it’s own nomenclature, oligarchs and expenses to a lot of the other dictators worldwide subjugating and terrorizing and plundering also their own population with Russia’s help.
William Stewart:
The US media is throwing Ukraine under the bus. The narrative has shifted. The Washington Post claimed that Ukraine, acting on its own, destroyed the Nordstream pipelines. You won’t read that in the DT. Time Magazine claims Zelensky is delusional in not accepting he can’t win the war. The neocons in Washington and the Israeli government want the US to go to war with Iran. Will Britain join in?
Albert Lachlan. Reply to William Stewart : It’s the Trump cabal in the Republican Party and some media outlets like Fox News that are really pushing the Russia narrative.
ALAN WALTERS
“We will mete out to the Germans the measure and more than the measure that they have meted out to us. We will have no truce or parley with you, or the grisly gang who work your wicked will. You do your worst and we will do our best.”
— Winston Churchill
Ron Flolid:
General Hodges, your article has distilled down the vast wants and needs of the war in Ukraine into a very clear roadmap to attain peace or at least neutralize the Russian invasion. As a US citizen living in the Midwest, I’ve followed the Telegraph’s coverage of the war in Ukraine since the beginning of the 2022 invasion. In my opinion, the domestic coverage of the war in Ukraine seems more about fractures created by a vocal right wing minority who insist that the war is in some far off land with no implications to the US. That narrow and short sighted minority pretend that they represent the majority, but I believe – and hope – that there exists in the US a majority that supports your views. I’m so disappointed that the US has forced Ukraine to fight with limited access to the vast US arsenal and parse out weapons as if it were candy to a child at Halloween. Ukraine deserves the full support of the US with the advanced weapons that were called for in the beginning of the 2022 invasion and outlined in your article. I so appreciate the insight that you have provided to the Telegraph in all their media outlets and I only wish that it would be at the top of the daily read for our congressional members.
paul atkinson
He’s dead right
I read that the aid the USA has given ukraine is equivalent to 5% of its annual defence budget,this is unbelievable value for money ,and not a drop of American blood
As to Iran ,the world should impose ever tightening sanctions on the restricting their ability to export terrorism ,no one should advocate a military solution .
If the free world can continue this way China will think twice before attacking anyone.
James Devlin
“We must be the great arsenal of democracy. For us this is an emergency as serious as war itself. We must apply ourselves to our task with the same resolution, the same sense of urgency, the same spirit of patriotism and sacrifice as we would show were we at war.”
— Franklin D. Roosevelt
J Finnemore
Germany has just announced it will be doubling its support for Ukraine in the coming year to its levels during 2023. Very good.
To help leverage that increase taking the steps that General Hodges outlines with respect to the supply of long range German missiles would be sensible to build on existing supplies of such weapons for Ukraine from other countries.
2024 will see the arrival in Ukrainian hands of the F16 and the air launched weapons it can fire, that will provide a more challenging environment both for Russian aircraft and their military in general. Further good news.
Sustained, high quality support from Western allies will give Ukraine the military tools to finish the job. That is all she is asking for to repel Russian invasion.
As usual, there are some great comments. Thanks for sharing, Scradge. BTW, the first two are the same.
Thank you facts.
Mr Galvin’s comment has now been corrected!
Agreed. Thank you Sir Scradgel. I don’t think this site would be nearly as effective without your great input. Thank you.
“Meanwhile China watches. Beijing is waiting to see if the US and UK and other Western nations have the political will, military capability, and industrial capacity to help Ukraine defeat Russia…”
It doesn’t look very good for us in this respect. Our political will is not nearly as powerful as it should be. We’re not even fully united in this war. Some give a lot, some give a little less, some give barely anything at all. Some are fully against Ukraine aid. We are refusing Ukraine some weapons and refusing to allow it to attack mafia land with our stuff.
All-in-all, we’re not using our full military capabilities to help Ukraine WIN this war, only NOT TO LOSE it.
What industrial capacity? North Korea, for Christ’s sake, is delivering more ammo to mafia land than the ENTIRE EU/NATO combined is to Ukraine.
What would YOU think about all of this, Mr. and Mrs. Reader, if you were Xi?
” ‘America First’ baked into their brains”
Amerikkka Uber Alles – why does that sound familiar?
Netanyahu is not fighting for his political skin. That’s gone already. The people are just giving him time to finish the job in Gaza. After it’s over, Netanyahu will not have a political future. Israel has the ability to deal with Hamas by herself.
Ukraine is a different story. She needs all the help we can give, and then some. It’s a shame she hasn’t gotten it.
Hodges knows that too many Americans aren’t thinking about the effects of a positive outcome for Putin. To that extent, they are anti-American and being intentionally stupid.