Jaanika Merilo

Head of Digital Health and Care in Estonian Government / Digital Transformation / HealthTech /AI / OSINT / Security /NE100 Innovators that change the world (Google & FT) / Keynote speaker / Author

February 9, 2025

Elections During Wartime? Is the President’s Legitimacy really in Question?

Some Western leaders have begun directly calling for Ukraine to hold elections—a stance that, to Ukrainians, feels tone-deaf and, whether intentionally or not, plays into Russia’s narrative.

Ukrainian Law Does Not Permit It

While the Constitution does not explicitly ban elections during wartime, Ukraine’s election law does. Changing this law would require a parliamentary majority, which is highly unlikely. Even opposition parties agree that elections should not take place while the war is ongoing.

The President’s Legitimacy Is Unquestionable

Under Ukrainian law, the sitting president remains in office until a new one is elected and inaugurated. Whether five or seven years have passed since the last election, the current president’s legitimacy is legally upheld.

No One Can Guarantee Safety

In an active war, ensuring voter safety is impossible. Given Russia’s documented use of war crimes as a strategy, there is every reason to believe it would deliberately target polling stations to sow chaos and delegitimise Ukraine’s leadership.

No Meaningful Participation, No Democracy

A fifth of Ukraine is under occupation, and the entire country remains a target for Russian missile strikes. In regions facing constant shelling and destruction, many people physically cannot reach polling stations. As well, how would the soldiers defending the frontline participate? Can an election be truly democratic when millions are unable to vote?

No International Observation, No Legitimacy

Can you imagine international observers monitoring all 25,000+ polling stations in an active war zone? Neither can I. Without proper oversight, the legitimacy of any election would be in serious doubt.

No Full Representation, No Democracy

More than 5 million Ukrainians have fled the country, and hundreds of thousands have been forcibly deported. Most will be unable to vote, making full democratic representation impossible.

Ukrainians Do Not Want Elections During War

Most importantly, over 70% of Ukrainians oppose holding elections during wartime. They support elections after the war—but not while fighting continues. Meanwhile, more than half of the population still trusts the current president. Having said that, according to current sociology, there will most probably not be (any) president´s majority in the Parliament.

Pushing for elections in the middle of an active war is manipulative and unrealistic. Equally problematic is the Russian narrative that seeks to question the president’s legitimacy. Elections should, and will, take place—after the war. Because in a democracy, elections are fundamental—but so is the ability to vote freely and safely.

Oops, they did it again. Cables in the Baltic Sea Just Keep Breaking

In late January, two incidents occurred in the Baltic Sea, in Swedish and Norwegian waters, involving undersea cables. Both happened shortly after a similar incident in Finnish waters. While Russian ships or crew were involved in all cases, Russian intent wasn’t always confirmed. Just coincidences, you know. Hybrid warfare at its best—or rather, its worst.

This week, Swedish prosecutors announced that the crew of the detained ship Vezhen did not intentionally damage the Sweden-Latvia data cable on January 27. As a result, the ship was released from custody. Senior prosecutor Mats Ljunqvist stated that a thorough investigation ruled out sabotage, attributing the cable break to a combination of weather conditions, equipment issues, and navigation challenges. However, Vezhen was confirmed as the cause of the damage, and the investigation continues to determine whether other crimes were committed.

Earlier, Norwegian authorities had briefly detained another vessel, Silver Dania, but found no connection to the incident.

In the past three months, the Baltic Sea has seen three cases of underwater infrastructure damage. In December, a Russian-linked tanker severed two Estonia-Finland cables, and in November, a Chinese-flagged ship damaged cables between Germany, Finland, Sweden, and Lithuania.

Although, according to Occam’s razor theory, it might not always be Russia or China behind intentional damage, the situation still leaves a bitter taste. Was it really just coincidence, or are we witnessing an upgrade in Russian hybrid warfare skills—one so advanced that we can’t even prove intent, even when we see it?

Russians Worry More About Price Increases Than War

In Russia, there is a saying that “Revolutions happen when the fridge beats the TV,” implying that when people cease believing in propaganda and begin grappling with food shortages, change may follow. While a revolution seems unlikely, a recent Levada Center survey shows that Russians’ biggest concern today is rising prices—65% see it as their main worry, compared to 35% who are most concerned about the war. Other concerns include utility services, corruption, and immigration.

As inflation nears 30% annually (according to Romir), fears of poverty and unemployment have actually declined, likely due to wartime economic spending. However, Russia’s financial reserves are depleting, and internal borrowing has limits. Shortages are already visible in critical sectors. For example, Kursk’s acting governor, Aleksandr Hinshtein, admitted that the region cannot provide housing certificates to displaced residents due to a lack of funds.

This doesn’t mean there’s no money for war—it means funding for war will come at the expense of everything else. As a Russian joke goes: “Dad, now that we have less money, will you drink less?””No, son, you will eat less.” A second Levada survey reflects this reality: half of household income in Russia now goes to food.

Putin´s new special operation “Plan Heiress”?

Since December 2024 there have been circulating social media posts about heroic deeds of maria Vorontsova, who “organized in a zone of Special Military Operation a mobile military hospital, where 10,000 soldiers were treated. Allegedly, this hospital ended up surrounded, and the “enemy” dropped cluster bombs on it. Maria Vorontsova began heroically evacuating the wounded, managing to help four injured soldiers before a mine exploded nearby.

“She herself suffered a concussion, but, pulling herself together, continued treating the wounded. Doctor Maria Vorontsova, after being injured, stayed in the hospital for treatment and is now undergoing rehabilitation,” read most of the posts.

Why should we care, just another heroic fake from Russia, right? Well, not quite. Maria Vorontsova is not just “anybody” but the alleged daughter of Vladimir Putin. I doubt someone would dare to start making up stories without Kremlin´s acceptance.

Since early 2024 Maria Vorontsova has started making outcomings to media and press, as proclaimed endocrinologist interested in genetics. Coincidence or Putin is playing around with following the eternal Russian tradition of selecting a heir and successor? Well, I think he still keeps options open with Alexei Dyumin still around but it seems that he might have started thinking about it.