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By Andrew Neil For The Daily Mail 02 Apr 2022

President Putin launched his unprovoked attack on Ukraine just over five weeks ago. It’s already clear he’s lost.

He thought Russian forces would sweep everything before them and all of Ukraine would be occupied in a matter of days.

Its right to exist as a sovereign nation (which he denies) would be quickly extinguished as he forced it into his vainglorious vision of a Greater Russia ruled from Moscow with, at best, a puppet government in Kyiv.

Putin’s dream has turned into a nightmare. His war dead and wrecked armour litter the Ukrainian ground, leaving his hopes of overwhelming the country in tatters. He simply doesn’t have the reserves or reinforcements to replace the massive scale of his losses.

But defeat for President Putin is not quite the same as victory for President Zelensky. It is time for Britain and its Nato allies to give Ukraine and its formidable military the resources it needs to put victory beyond doubt. It is quite remarkable that we can already contemplate such a course of action.

Two days after the Russian invasion began I wrote on those pages: ‘As you read this, Russian forces could already have taken Kyiv . . . if not, its fall will be days if not hours away.’ I have never been so delighted to be so wrong.

I had totally overestimated the fighting capabilities of the Russian military and hopelessly underestimated the resilience, training (by Britain, America, Canada) and bravery of the Ukrainian military.

It’s little comfort that nearly every Western military and intelligence expert (wrongly) was saying the same thing.

It is of enormous comfort that not only has Ukraine stopped much of the Russian advance but in key areas, especially around Kyiv, it is mounting counterattacks and the invaders are in some retreat. So much so that the Ukrainian capital, as of this weekend, is now safe from Russian occupation.

The Kremlin has recognised reality. Last Tuesday the Russian military announced it was ‘fundamentally cutting back’ the forces it had deployed to take Kyiv. Some feared this was a ruse — that they’d pull back only to regroup and return in greater strength and ferocity.

In fact, they are in no condition to do that and the retreat in places is turning into a rout. Russia is leaving the north en masse, discarding much equipment as it flees and even leaving behind trapped pockets of Russian troops, on which Ukrainian forces are advancing fast.

Heavy armour is being shipped out by flatbed railway trucks, which suggests they’re not going up the road for a short break.

This is a momentous event for western Ukraine. It means there is now no prospect of Putin cajoling his fellow dictator in neighbouring Belarus, the thuggish Alexander Lukashenko, to send in his army in aid of the invasion: though there was probably little chance of that anyway since Western intelligence believes the Belarusian army would have mutinied if ordered to attack Ukraine.

It could also mean a reprieve for the beautiful Ukrainian port of Odessa on the Black Sea. The Russians have been moving in on it, with some difficulty, to create a land corridor with Kyiv. But if you don’t control the capital there’s no point in a corridor to it.

All of this explains why Ukrainians are beginning to see that victory — not just a debilitating stalemate — is possible.

But there are still formidable obstacles before it can be declared. Above all, there is Russia’s growing grip on the Ukraine Black Sea coast from Crimea, which includes the bombed-out city of Mariupol.

Then there are the disputed regions in eastern Ukraine, including Donbas, which Russia seized through its proxies and special forces eight years ago and from which it has been advancing.

Together this amounts to a large swathe of Ukrainian land. Russia will not be easily dislodged from it — and that is why Putin’s defeat is not yet Zelensky’s victory. A huge chunk of the Ukrainian military is operating in the country’s eastern heartland, and as long as Russia holds these areas it risks being encircled.

In the past three weeks alone, about $500 million of weapons have gone to Ukraine.

But they are mainly defensive, like anti-tank missiles, which have been used by Ukraine forces trained by Britain and America in mobile insurgency. Now they want other weapons — heavy armour, aircraft, artillery — to dislodge Russian forces in the east holed up on their land.

Ukrainians are realistic enough to know they cannot entirely dislodge the Russians from their country. But they think if they can achieve some gains and make life hell for the occupiers, Russia will be more accommodating when proper peace negotiations begin.

The case for supplying Ukraine with more offensive weapons while implementing even tougher sanctions is strong.

For a start, a clear defeat for a dictator who invaded another country on the basis of lies and deceit is likely to deter other dictators who are thinking of doing the same (yes, you, President Xi).

A clear Ukrainian victory, bar some minor concessions to Russia for the sake of peace, would also allow Ukraine to escape Moscow’s baleful influence and look confidently towards Europe for its future. The freedom to begin the long road to membership of the European Union should be part of any peace deal, if that is what Ukraine wants.

It would also mark the beginning of the end for Putin. What happens inside the Kremlin is always a guessing game.

But Western intelligence is picking up a lot of friction. ‘It’s impossible to predict,’ says one Western intelligence source ‘but these are the classic signs of an impending coup.’

Original article, with pictures and videos, here:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10677717/ANDREW-NEIL-time-Britain-Nato-allies-Ukraine-weapons-needs-win.html