ANALYSIS: Ukraine’s Drone and Cruise Missile Bombardment of Russia Is Accelerating

Kyiv’s recent deep strike campaign against high-value targets within Russia features longer-range drones, improved warheads, cleverer tactics, and bigger kamikaze aircraft swarms.

March 2, 2026

Ukrainian attack drones hit and set ablaze an oil refinery and air defense installations in and around the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk overnight Sunday, marking the acceleration of Kyiv’s deep strike campaign against high-value targets within Russia.

The densest impacts and explosions were observed in the vicinity of the Sheskharis oil terminal, one of Russia’s highest-capacity oil and petroleum transshipment hubs. At least 11 kamikaze aircraft directly targeted the terminal, with images posted to local social media of orange-red explosions and three major fires.

Ukrainian strikes have targeted the Sheskharis terminal repeatedly in past months – most recently in November 2025, when the facility’s oil exports were disrupted for over a month. 

Other targets hit by Ukrainian drones in the attack on Novorossiysk include warships, oil tankers, oil loading facilities and air defense installations.

Veniamin Kondratyev, governor of Russia’s Krasnodar Krai administrative district, told local media on Monday morning that the “massive” Ukrainian attack was the “most powerful strike” to hit Novorossiysk yet, and declared a state of emergency. 

His office also issued a statement claiming that five people had been injured by “falling debris,” and 20 buildings around the city had been damaged, including 17 residential buildings and a daycare center.

In a statement, Russia’s defense ministry said that 67 Ukrainian drones had been shot down over Krasnodar Krai and in the skies over Novorossiysk, 23 kamikaze aircraft over Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula, and 8 drones over the Sea of Azov. There was no mention of damage.

Krymsky Viter, an aerial warfare tracking platform, reported on Monday that most of the Ukrainian drones flew a route bypassing Russian air defenses, citing a Ukrainian military source. 

Launches took place between 8 p.m. and 11 p.m. Kyiv time, from sites across southern Ukraine, that source said, with most aircraft heading more than 200 kilometers (124 miles) south over the open waters of the Black Sea before turning east to bypass Crimea and the Russian air defenses deployed there.

The ongoing Ukrainian strike campaign targeting Russian radar systems and anti-aircraft missiles long predates this attack, and probably helped the Ukrainian drones reach and hit the Novorossiysk refinery, a Kyiv Post review of recent confirmed strikes found.

On Feb. 25, Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces (SSO) published still and moving images of its strike aircraft hitting a Russian S-400 Triumf interceptor missile launcher, an associated 92N6E fire-control/multifunctional radar, and a Pantsir-S1 short-range air defense system. 

Some but not all of that footage was geolocated to a village outside Crimea’s second largest city, Simferopol.

The S-400 is Russia’s premier air defense system, firing heavy missiles designed to engage and destroy targets at ranges up to 400 kilometers away. The Pantsir system is equipped with autocannon, light missiles, and agile radars, and is designed to seek out and knock down drones. All these systems were destroyed by the strikes, an SSO statement said.

On Feb. 27, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) published a statement and video content showing its drone zoning in on and hitting a Pantsir-S1 air defense system in a nocturnal strike on the territory of an abandoned steel factory in the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol. 

The attack degraded the local Russian air defense network, USF commander Maj. Robert “Magyar” Brovdi said in a statement, adding that more attacks would follow.

Sunday’s operation also saw an engagement radar for an S-300 PMU-2 Favorit near Novorossiysk hit by Ukrainian drones – along with another Panstir system positioned to defend the city’s port against drones, Ukrinform reported, citing military sources.

Data published by Russia’s Defense Ministry documents the growing frequency of Ukrainian drone strikes, although Moscow always claims that all Ukrainian drones are shot down. 

Russian figures claim that 4,379 Ukrainian drones were shot down in December 2025, compared with an average of 3,300-3,600 in previous months – representing an increase of roughly 30%.

The Kremlin claims that Russian air defenses engaged and destroyed 102 drones overnight on Feb. 12, 345 on Feb. 16, 220 on Feb. 26, 98 on Feb. 28 – and, most recently, 172 kamikaze aircraft overnight Sunday, a Kyiv Post review found.

These figures reflect a number of intense, sustained waves of drone attacks by Ukraine, which are arguably among the most ambitious of Russia’s full-scale war. 

Sources within Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, along with independent observers, confirmed that large-scale attacks on Russia took place on all those dates, often directly contradicting the Kremlin’s account. Kyiv claims that several of these attacks actually found their targets, causing substantial damage. 

The most devastating Ukrainian attacks on Russia recorded in February include the setting alight of a Lukoil-operated oil refinery in Volgograd overnight Feb. 11 and the destruction of at least two reservoirs of a Krasnodar oil storage site overnight Feb. 17.

A Tatarstan crude oil pumping station was demolished overnight Feb. 22, and a Smolensk chemical plant was set ablaze on Feb. 25. Satellite imagery later showed it had been burned to the ground.

Over the past two months, the bulk of Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian targets has been concentrated on southwestern Russia and Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea peninsula, with smaller air raids heading deeper into western Russia and occasionally reaching far-distant targets in the Ural Mountains and the Caspian Sea.

Otherwise, Ukrainian air operations overnight Sunday centered their efforts on Crimea and Russia’s Black Sea shore, while a secondary attack was launched at Russia’s central Tula region some 350 kilometers away. 

According to Ukrainian military sources, strike drones hit and disabled a Russian 92N6A radar system, which is a critical sensor for Russia’s S-400 strategic air defense system. 

The successful attack is said to have occurred near the village of Osinovaya Gora. Russian military sources claimed to have shot down all four Ukrainian drones breaching Tula airspace at about 2:30 a.m. 

Kyiv Post confirmed that Ukrainian drones were in the vicinity and engaged by ground defenses, but has been so far unable to confirm either Russia or Ukraine’s conflicting assessments of the damage caused. 

Prior to that strike, the most recent confirmed Ukrainian attack against Tula – which also targeted the region’s air defenses – took place overnight Feb. 26. Tula is one of Russia’s main arms-manufacturing regions.

https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/71054

3 comments

  1. Novorossiysk took a pummeling last night. There were some very spectacular explosions caused by drone debris.

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