The beginning of the end?
MAY 7
Last month was the first time in four years Ukraine has returned more ordinance into Russia than Russia has fired.
When the conflict in Ukraine began Russia held every numerical advantage. They were prepared to launch mass artillery bombardments and waves of infantry an armour into the battles in the belief their massive advantage would provide victory over Ukraine. However, many things worked against Russia. Their intelligence regarding Ukraine’s will and ability to defend itself was patently flawed. Their assessment of President Zelensky’s integrity and courage equally so. When leaders in Europe and the USA offered to assist him to withdraw to a foreign country, Zelensky replied ‘I don’t need a ride. I need ammunition!’
That has been the continuing situation since that beginning. Like their leader, Ukraine refused to run and stayed to fight. Their generals understood the weakness of their situation. Ukraine didn’t have the mass so it would need to fight with precision and make every Russian step forward expensive and painful. They would absorb the pressure, deplete the Russian forces, and create time. Time to build defences, time to make alliances, build factories, produce weapons, develop more advanced systems, and hit the Russians where they could do the most damage.
Russian incompetence was an asset; it slowed the decision-making process on the battlefield always allowing time. While Ukraine adapted and innovated Russia did more of the same believing the method used in WW2 were still relevant. They might have been but the inherent corruption inside the Russian forces and government had hollowed out the military infrastructure. Guns, armour, and munitions had not been maintained and were in many cases unserviceable. Russian generals and senior officers used military funding as personal bank accounts. They could not do what they claimed to be able to do and Ukraine exposed those limitations.
Economically, Russia was rich
with an ever-increasing income from oil and gas. They had built up their national wealth fund to $150 billion and were confident they could outspend Ukraine. Since February 2022, Russia’s war chest has been reduced by 70% and now holds less than $40 billion.
Russia has lost 1.4 million serious casualties in four years. Conservative estimates of comparative Ukrainian losses are about seven Russian for every one Ukrainian. These figures might be further enhanced by the lack of Russian medical support for front line soldiers. Many recoverable casualties die before reaching medical assistance while others are simply abandoned. A wounded Russian infantryman now has a longer life expectancy if he is captured.
Russia is no longer able to replace its monthly losses of 35,000 with new recruits unless it introduces conscription in the main population centres of Moscow and St Petersburg. Putin is loath to send the children of his main support group, the affluent urban middle class into battle.
Russia has lost 70% of it tanks and armour
70% of its artillery
60% of its air force
Its Black Sea fleet has been sunk or forced into safe harbour.
Russia has slowly adapted to drone warfare and continues to launch large numbers of Shahed drones into Ukraine, but these weapons are inaccurate. Ukraine manages to bring down about 90% but enough still get through to cause damage especially in civilian population areas.
In response Ukraine is striking oil and energy infrastructure and had most recently concentrated its efforts against Russian oil terminals on the coast. The Russian shadow fleet that is so crucial to delivering Russian oil to customers are struggling to store and load under repeated and accurate strikes. Terminals in the Black Sea and on Russia’s only route into the Baltic have been severely damaged. If they can’t load it or transport it, they cannot deliver or sell it. This has neutered the effects of the surge in oil prices created by the US induced crisis in Iran.
In March 2026 Ukraine recovered 450 square miles of occupied territory from Russia. Such an area is small in the great scheme but is significant when Russia has been trying to launch a Spring offensive. As they attack they lose ground. IF Putin is forced to withdraw from Crimea this will unlock the door to Donbas and Russia will be forced to sue for terms.
Ukraine has air superiority. This combined with the technical superiority of their drones and missiles has carved open Russian airspace. Ukraine will manufacture and fire more than 100,000 drones into Russia this year plus their own cruise missiles. Russia is no longer able to match these figures.
With the end of Victor Orban’s rule in Hungary, the vetoed 90 billion Euro loan to Ukraine will be released and enlarge Ukraine’s war chest at a crucial time. As the leading nation in drone technology, Ukraine is now providing expertise to oil rich, Arab states affected by the US/ Iran war which will provide even more reward for their courage and intelligence. Ukraine is not only gaining military superiority it is discovering ways to become economically dominant.
The strategy of Ukraine has been to absorb and counter-attack until the enemy is worn down while building up reserves. To defeat mass with precision.
Russia will attempt to open new negotiations while it creates frictions on the sidelines. It recently moved submarines into UK northern waters. Easily discovered and chased away one should surmise this exposure was deliberate and intended to undermine UK confidence. Air incursions continue and only stop when a nation like Turkey promise lethal force. Russia has attempted to insert insurrectionists into Estonia and Lithuania and have received the same strict promises. These are all distractions. Russia must look for methods other than military mass to win its war. If it can’t win the battle it must try to win the politics.
Ukraine understands the Russian methodology better than any western leaders. They are not fooled. Fortunately for Ukraine they have held the moral high ground throughout the war. They have not targeted civilian areas, have not murdered prisoners or civilians in occupied territories. In the face of the greatest adversity they have held onto values the west continues to respect and support.
2026 is a watershed year for Ukraine. With continued support from their allies, it could mean the beginning of the end and open the path of victory for Ukraine.
Slava Ukraini!
I write to fight.
Robin Horsfall
© 2026 ROBIN HORSFALL
548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104
“2026 is a watershed year for Ukraine. With continued support from their allies, it could mean the beginning of the end and open the path of victory for Ukraine.”
I agree Robin.
But we must caveat that with two imponderables:
1: Allied support is desperately in need of a massive increase. That $90 billion is nowhere near enough. Ukraine needs many more fighters, artillery, ammo and long range fires.
Plus it needs tactical nukes.
2: Krasnov is desperate for a putler victory. So is his squalid criminal regime.
Krasnov has a limited window of opportunity to help his mafia boyfriend win this war or to reach an unjust peace for Ukraine. November is his deadline. So, none of this is going to happen.
Additionally, the man baby is distracted by several other things besides the war in Ukraine. There is the aforementioned midterm elections, the deflating economy and inflating gas prices, then the stupid ballroom, and finally, his lost war with Iran.
Not a fan of W, but he would have finished off iran quick