Jun 28, 2024
- Russia is on the offensive, but not contributing all it can into the assault, reflecting Russia’s plans.
- Putin’s strategy focuses on attrition and limiting Ukraine’s counteroffensive capabilities.
- ISW experts warn that delays in Western aid could lead to Ukraine’s collapse and Russian victory.
Russian forces are making a push along an axis between Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka but not throwing their full weight into it. War analysts say that the tactics appear to reflect Russian President Putin’s theory of victory in Ukraine, revealed earlier this month.
“Russian forces have committed only limited forces to this operation so far, which suggests that Russian forces continue to prioritize gradual advances through consistent grinding assaults over operationally significant gains through rapid maneuver,” analysts at the Institute of the Study of War assess.
Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 7, Putin said that speed is unnecessary, explaining that Russian forces can gradually “squeeze” the Ukrainians out of territories Moscow seeks to control.
Putin theorized that the gradual progress Russian forces make will allow them to achieve the Kremlin’s aims, as it prevents Ukraine from conducting effective counteroffensive tactics.
Slow, steady, grinding operations in the Toretsk direction are a goal for Russian forces, as they believe it will block Ukraine from gathering critical resources, as well as personnel, and drain what it already has. And that, ISW experts said, may be more important than seizing territory.
Analysts from the Washington-based ISW predict that Russia’s approach to this conflict, which aims to “win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces,” could take anywhere from months to years to accomplish. At the forum this month, Putin said he was confident the plans to make gradual gains will come to fruition.
ISW analysts advise that Western partner nations supply Ukraine’s military with the resources it needs to “liberate significant swaths of occupied Ukraine and challenge Putin’s belief that he can gradually subsume Ukraine.”
Ukraine has overcome some of the dangerous shortfalls it faced earlier in the years as partners step up support, but the pace at which Ukraine is currently receiving aid is limited and enforces Putin’s strategy, which is focused on outlasting Ukraine.
ISW experts noted that the end of Western assistance for Ukraine could lead to a total collapse of its front line and an all-out, complete victory for Russia.
“Ukraine should contest the initiative as soon as possible because Russian forces are reaping a variety of benefits from holding the initiative, including their ability to pursue a strategy of attritional warfare,” the analysts concluded.
Putin theorized that the gradual progress Russian forces make will allow them to achieve the Kremlin’s aims, as it prevents Ukraine from conducting effective counteroffensive tactics.
Slow, steady, grinding operations in the Toretsk direction are a goal for Russian forces, as they believe it will block Ukraine from gathering critical resources, as well as personnel, and drain what it already has. And that, ISW experts said, may be more important than seizing territory.
Analysts from the Washington-based ISW predict that Russia’s approach to this conflict, which aims to “win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces,” could take anywhere from months to years to accomplish. At the forum this month, Putin said he was confident the plans to make gradual gains will come to fruition.
ISW analysts advise that Western partner nations supply Ukraine’s military with the resources it needs to “liberate significant swaths of occupied Ukraine and challenge Putin’s belief that he can gradually subsume Ukraine.”
Ukraine has overcome some of the dangerous shortfalls it faced earlier in the years as partners step up support, but the pace at which Ukraine is currently receiving aid is limited and enforces Putin’s strategy, which is focused on outlasting Ukraine.
ISW experts noted that the end of Western assistance for Ukraine could lead to a total collapse of its front line and an all-out, complete victory for Russia.
“Ukraine should contest the initiative as soon as possible because Russian forces are reaping a variety of benefits from holding the initiative, including their ability to pursue a strategy of attritional warfare,” the analysts concluded.
I completely disagree with this assessment.
A war of attrition is not particularly good for any side. However, the attacking force always loses a lot more in meat and material, and in this case, it is mafia land.
Ukraine is smarter by keeping up its active defense; stay put when it must and make advances when it’s possible.
No, mafia land is not immune to the constant hammer blows that transform its forces into rotting corpses and burning wrecks in aeternum. The way the potato generals send their assets to certain destruction for dubious gains is not a viable strategy. It never was and never will be.
ISW analysts advise that Western partner nations supply Ukraine’s military with the resources it needs to “liberate significant swaths of occupied Ukraine and challenge Putin’s belief that he can gradually subsume Ukraine.”
You might as well talk to an outhouse door than talk to the jellyfish. From day one the trickle of weapons has been just enough to keep Ukraine in the game. All we have got from the WH, is about weapons to defend itself, and a half cocked counteroffensive without the tools to do the job properly.
I hate to think about how long we’ve been damned to look at this reprehensible mechanism used by the collective marshmallows to assist Ukraine.
At times it’s like a bad fricken “groundhog Day”.🙄
Yeah, that’s a good comparison.
The rat Nazi has sufficient (allegedly) human resources for his plan to work. Being a fascist dictatorship, time is immaterial to them. The death of putler won’t signify the end of anything. The thieves, degenerates and savages that comprise the oligarchs are fully onboard with the putler genocide.
The best Ukraine can hope for is the liberation of their legal territory, followed by fortification on an unparalleled basis, but this will need an increase in help of 500%.
The orc kill rate must exceed the replacement rate by a factor of no less than 300%.
Once their artillery forces are reduced to be a skeleton crew, it’s pretty much over for the roach army. The numbers of orcs they sent into battle then is moot.
Another strategy Ukraine could follow is to demolish their supply infrastructure. But, I guess this would first require certain squishmallows to concur.