Putin neither wants a ceasefire, nor US weapons and intel to flow again to Kyiv. His response? Get ready for a new level of deviousness
Soldiers of Ukraine’s 100th mechanised brigade hold posters thanking the US for support Credit: Roman Chop
David Blair Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator
11 March 2025 9:02pm GMT
It took Marco Rubio barely 30 seconds to switch the glare of American pressure away from Ukraine and towards Russia.
As he announced Ukraine’s willingness to observe an immediate 30-day ceasefire, the US secretary of state emphasised how the “ball is now in Russia’s court”.
He was speaking only 11 days after Donald Trump turfed Volodymyr Zelensky out of the White House before cutting off arms supplies and intelligence, deliberately maximising Ukraine’s vulnerability to Russian attacks.
Yet by agreeing to a ceasefire – provided that Russia follows suit – and consenting to negotiations on an “enduring peace”, Ukraine did enough on Tuesday for America to announce the “immediate” restoration of “intelligence-sharing” and “security assistance”.
Superficially, the outcome of the Jeddah talks might seem to be an extraordinary reversal of America’s position. But under the surface, the truth is more complicated.
For all the sound and fury, Washington appears to be following the plan published last year by Gen Keith Kellogg, now Mr Trump’s Ukraine envoy.
This can be crudely summarised as follows: hammer the Ukrainians until they agree to a ceasefire and peace talks, then turn the screw on the Russians until they reciprocate.
But suppose the Russians do not reciprocate? Now there is one vital question: how will America respond if Vladimir Putin simply rejects the Jeddah offer?
He will be deeply reluctant to accept a ceasefire at the very moment when his forces are finally advancing against Ukraine’s salient in the Russian region of Kursk.
In Putin’s preferred sequence, a ceasefire would be the last step, when everything else has been settled, allowing the Russians to maintain every ounce of military pressure to wring concessions from Ukraine throughout any negotiations.
Yet Mr Rubio wants them to do the exact opposite and pause fighting at a time when Ukraine still holds perhaps 100 sq km of Russian territory as a bargaining chip to be traded for some of its own land.
If Russia rejects this offer, then America has one obvious option, described in the Kellogg plan – namely to turn the heat on the Kremlin by providing yet more military support for Ukraine.
That would probably entail going back to Congress and asking both Houses to vote for another package of exactly the kind that Mr Trump and JD Vance, the vice-president, have publicly ridiculed.
Mr Trump thrives on being unpredictable but such a step may be too spectacular a political somersault even for him.
Perhaps more likely is that Russia will pretend to accept the Jeddah offer and do just enough to prevent America from renewing its backing for Ukraine while in fact breaking the ceasefire and finding a way of blaming Mr Zelensky.
Putin’s key advantage is that Mr Trump and his acolytes are obviously influenced by Russian messages and Russian narratives.
But there is no doubting that some adroit Ukrainian diplomacy has suddenly placed the spotlight on Putin and landed him with a wrenching decision.
“Putin’s key advantage is that Mr Trump and his acolytes are obviously influenced by Russian messages and Russian narratives.”
A massive understatement.
That putler is a cold, clinical psychopath is beyond doubt; the creature is a textbook example whose brain should be studied while safely installed in a pickling jar.
All decisions he makes are determined by one thing only : are they beneficial for him personally?
He determined at the beginning of his savage rule that he would take any necessary actions, starting perhaps with the staged bombings/murder of russian civilians that was his pretext for unleashing a genocidal war against Chechnya; a war that killed one third of its population and leveled its capital city to the ground. He did the same thing in Georgia, Syria and Ukraine. Every time he played and continues to play his trump card : nukes.
And this is where we are now. A ceasefire proposal. He will be asking “what’s in it for me?”
Even if he agrees to one, it will of course be worthless.
Only defeat, or the high likelihood of defeat, will produce anything worthwhile. He will have an Idi Amin-type exit strategy in place of course, but he’s a long way from that.
If his orcs start being marmalised at the rate of 130,000/m, his oil refining capability destroyed, his armour destroyed at double the current rate, his currency destroyed, his banks destroyed, his economy destroyed, his occupation will be untenable.
A long way still to go then. We still have to hope for a miracle, such as Trump doing a 180° flip on Ukraine support.
Captain Cornflake used disgusting, borderline racist, anti-Ukraine rhetoric to justify the intel/weapons freeze. I don’t think they will forget this vile slur for a long time:
Envoy compares Ukraine intel sharing pause to “hitting a mule with a two-by-four”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/envoy-compares-ukraine-intel-sharing-pause-to-hitting-a-mule-with-a-two-by-four/ar-AA1ApG2T
Cornflakes is living proof that the US also has potato generals. This one even sold his soul and surrendered his morals and dignity to get on the ship of fools, captained by a convicted felon.
I am following this clown show with great mistrust in two parties involved; the ruskie side and the American one. Who would’ve ever figured that we’ve sunk to the level of mafia land?
“If Russia rejects this offer, then America has one obvious option, described in the Kellogg plan – namely to turn the heat on the Kremlin by providing yet more military support for Ukraine.”
They have many options.
Reduce the ceiling cap to $30 a barrel for russian oil.
Sanction every ship that russia are using to transport oil.
Flood Ukraine with weapons.
Create a no fly zone.
The US have many options, but not a lot of will.