He needs to exit.

ROBIN HORSFALL

SEP 04, 2025

It is at last becoming clear to Putin he is losing his war against Ukraine. He’s running out of money to continue. His National Wealth Fund which is down 75%. His oil and gas revenue has declined dramatically, and he cannot borrow from international institutions. His friends, Xi, Jong Un and Modi are creating distance. They don’t come to him; he goes to them begging for help. He has also joined the rest of the world in not knowing what Trump will do next.

Putin’s military losses are unsustainable. His post-Soviet Union stocks of arms and ammunition have been bled dry. His tanks losses in the past two weeks are as low as two per day while his infantry losses remain high indicating he has few tanks left. His air force has lost close to 50% of it’s aircraft to drone attacks and efficient Ukrainian air defences. Russian pilots no longer want to get close to Ukraine to launch their payloads. The Russian Black Sea Fleet is loath to leave harbour but even there, marine drones have struck capital ships. This week another Russian corvette missile launcher was seriously damaged in the Sea of Azov. Ukraine’s new ‘Flamingo’ Cruise missiles are ramp launched, mobile and carry one ton of explosives with a range of 3000km. There is no US or European input or oversight to their use. They can reach almost anywhere in Russia and will be able to strike Russian industry and infrastructure throughout the coming winter.

There is no current success for Putin to turn into a propaganda victory. Putin’s 2025 ambitions to take territory in Donbas have failed miserably and he is losing what small tactical gains he might have. He failed to take Pokrovsk or Sumy, failed to hold any significant ground, and failed to subdue the determination of the Ukrainian people with his bombing attacks of civilian residential areas in major cities.

The Russian military and the FSB sensing the weakness of their master are circling one another like dogs with bared teeth. One or the other will decide who rules when Putin falls.

Having passed through his repeated denial, aggression, barter, and more aggression, process of negotiation, Putin is still loathed to accept he cannot win. This will naturally lead him to a moment of desperation. For the first time he is unpredictable; clutching at straws: hoping for an opening or mistake by his opponent.

His most obvious and probably wisest path would be to withdraw and claim victory to his own people.

‘Our brave warriors have defeated Naziism in Ukraine and secured our borders.’

If he can convince the Russian public and give them hope for a return to the relative prosperity they had three years ago it could work, but would the oligarchs who have lost all their riches and seen many lose their lives feel the same? Could Putin rebuild the economy with sanctions still in place and without international investment?

Putin intends to make one hopeful and desperate mass suicide assault in Donbas in the last weeks of summer. Troops are being moved from Kherson in the south and Sumy in the Northeast to bolster the Donbas centre for one final push. This is no secret; Ukraine’s generals must decide whether to blunt the coming attacks with a fixed defence or to mount a controlled fighting withdrawal allowing their ‘horns of the buffalo’ to close the circle and cut off the Russian army. It is debateable whether Ukraine has the manpower for the latter approach, but it could be decisive.

There are increasing reports of retreats, surrenders and desertions from the Russian army. The conscripts know their leaders tactics are certain death, and no one cares. Morale among those still carrying on the fight is terribly low, and winter is coming. Most will never go home, even the seriously wounded are being returned to front line duties.

Putin could expand his cyber war against civil and military targets. This week his electronic warfare weapons jammed the GPS on an aircraft carrying Ursula von Leyden. Russia could try to unleash a cyber assault on public utilities in the UK and Europe hoping to adversely affect public opinion. It is also possible Putin could take his acts of desperation into orbit with nuclear device creating an Electro-magnetic pulse and bring down satellite communications. That would be as desperate as he could get, second to launching a nuclear weapon against an opponent. Either option would mean he knows he has lost and has decided to take the rest of the world down with him. It is unlikely his own generals would support such a move and there is doubt as to whether the Russian deterrent is still functional. Putin also has chemical and biological options which are part of the same self-destructive process. Their use is not completely out of the question, but they would however invoke fear in European governments who believe they cannot afford to prod Putin too hard when he feels trapped.

Assuming though, that Putin is not crazy and wants to survive he might be looking for a safe retreat with enough gold to keep him secure until he dies. China would be an obvious option but there are others. This would need to be done with an enormous amount of secrecy in his own house. If the boss is running off with the money, those left behind would not be pleased.

Putin will still use redirection as a weapon. It worked well for him when he encouraged Hamas to attack Israel. He probes the Baltic states with air incursions. Drones have fallen in Romania and Poland. These are tests not errors. He could mount accidental attacks on NATO, Japan, Australia, or false flag attacks on his allies or even persuade Trump to attack Venuzuala or Panama. However, Putin’s ‘plausible deniability’ gave way to implausible deniability’ and long time ago. He can’t fool all the people all of the time.

Peace negotiations are only a ploy to gain time while planning one of the above. Putin played his Trump card in Alaska, and it failed miserably. There can be no peace without a Ukrainian victory and the removal of Putin by the Russian people.

Putin is now goading Zelensky to come to Moscow for ‘Peace talks.’ President Zelensky would never be so foolish. Putin has made several attempts to have him assassinated. Zelensky is an important symbol of resistance, not only to his own people but to Europe. His death would be a cause for escalation not capitulation.

As Putin’s mind clears, he will see he has no path to victory and must exit from the game.

Slava Ukraini!

Robin Horsfall

Who Dares Shares.