04/1/2026
A turning point has been reached in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Over the past six months, the pace of Russian troop advance has slowed noticeably, and Ukrainian counterattacks and medium-range strikes have exacerbated the Russian army’s systemic problems and called into question the Russian Armed Forces’ command’s plans for the spring-summer offensive.
This is stated in a new material from the Institute for the Study of War. Analysts claim that the inevitability of the Russian Federation’s victory in the war against Ukraine now looks even more doubtful than it has been until now.
Russia’s advance has slowed down
ISW stated that the advance of Russian occupation forces in Ukraine has slowed as the Defense Forces continue to contest the initiative in various sectors of the front for an extended period.
Russia’s position on the battlefield has changed over the past six months (October 2025 to March 2026), as Ukrainian counterattacks and medium-range strikes, blocking the Russian occupiers’ ability to use Starlink terminals, and the Kremlin’s efforts to block Telegram have exacerbated existing problems within the Russian armed forces.
ISW estimated that Russian forces captured 1,929.69 square kilometers between October 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, advancing an average of 10.66 square kilometers per day.
From October 1, 2024 to March 31, 2025, the rate of advance of the occupiers was about 14.9 square kilometers per day.
At the same time, the pace of advance of Russian troops has more than halved since the beginning of 2026 compared to the same period a year earlier. If in January-March 2025 they advanced at an average speed of 11.06 sq km per day, then in the first three months of 2026 this figure decreased to 5.5 sq km per day.
Among the reasons for this slowdown, analysts primarily cite Ukrainian counterattacks and medium-range strikes.
ISW recalled that in the winter and spring of this year, the Defense Forces achieved the greatest successes on the battlefield since the start of the Kursk operation in August 2024 and liberated the largest territory in Ukraine after the 2023 counteroffensive.
From late January to mid-March, Ukrainian forces liberated over 400 sq km in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipil directions in two separate attacks. According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukrainian forces are prioritizing counterattacks in areas where Russian forces are weakest in order to regain and maintain the operational and strategic initiative.
“Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine had a cascading effect on other sectors of the front, forcing Russian troops to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating manpower and resources for offensive operations in other sectors of the front,” the material states.
In addition, according to ISW estimates, the Defense Forces also liberated at least 183 sq km in and around Kupyansk in December 2025 – and Russia cannot retake this territory despite all efforts.
Analysts believe that the realities of the battlefield as of the end of March 2026 prove that significant Russian battlefield gains, let alone complete victory, are not inevitable.
There is currently no indication that the Russian Federation is capable of quickly retaking the lost territory in the Kupyansk direction or in southern Ukraine. Russian forces have slowed significantly, primarily because they continue to suffer casualties and increasingly rely on poorly trained and under-equipped infantry to achieve success.
Russian forces also switched to infiltration tactics to make gains across the entire front in 2025, but have recently struggled to gain a foothold where they have infiltrated – partly fueled by Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine in February 2026.
” Russian forces have held the initiative across the entire theater of operations since 2023, but recent Ukrainian gains in the Kupyansk direction and in southern Ukraine demonstrate that Ukrainian forces are capable of conducting successful counterattacks, achieving tactically significant successes, hindering Russia’s preparations for offensive operations, and challenging the initiative on the battlefield in some sectors,” the analysts concluded.
As OBOZ.UA wrote, ISW previously stated that Russia panicked due to Ukrainian strikes and the situation on the front.
Russian propagandists have complained that the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counterattacks have undermined the Russian Federation’s ability to conduct offensive operations in 2026. They are also concerned about the damage caused by Ukrainian deep strikes.
At the same time, Russia is saying that Putin’s army should focus on capturing Sloviansk and Kramatorsk to achieve “victory.”