07:00, 21.12.2022

9 min.2241INTERVIEW

Valery Yakovenko, an expert in the field of unmanned technologies and robotics, told UNIAN in an interview why the Russians resorted to nighttime drone attacks, how vulnerable the “Shahids” are to the cold, and whether Ukraine has the potential for mass production of combat UAVs for the Armed Forces.

Mr. Valery, on the night of December 19, the Russians attacked Ukraine with drones, and this happened almost immediately after the missile strike. In addition, enemy UAVs were launched at night. Can this be considered a new enemy tactic? 

The root cause of night strikes is the element of surprise. Another reason is the desire of the Russians to resort to terror. Let’s not forget that the Rashists attack civilian infrastructure, because the main goal they pursue is to intimidate the citizens of Ukraine. If we are talking about the possibility of attacking such drones at night, or in difficult weather conditions (there was fog), then this is another matter. 

The head of the joint coordination press center of the Southern Defense Forces, Nataliya Gumenyuk, previously stated that Iranian drones can freeze in cold weather. Later, the Air Force also referred to the possibility of icing of UAV systems. Why do Iranian drones still attack when it’s freezing outside? 

Many things change over time. The comments of the official representatives of the Armed Forces at the beginning of December were correct. However, the temperature is below freezing outside, and drones are flying. But this only means that the enemy is developing and also understands the shortcomings of the equipment that must be eliminated. 

We did question whether Iranian drones would be effective in cold temperatures. So now we need to wait for official comments, whether the technical characteristics of “Shahids” have really been changed.

From a technical point of view, it is clear what exactly could have changed in the “assembly” of these UAVs. It is necessary to look at the electronics system, at the way of thermal insulation of equipment control departments, autopilots. It is necessary to study how electronics are now better protected against frost. You also need to pay attention to the batteries in the drones themselves. Usually, in order for the equipment to work at temperatures from -20 to +10, it is necessary to additionally adjust the heating of the batteries or their insulation.

Are there any weather conditions that prevent Iranian drones from flying? 

There must be very difficult weather conditions. Extremely gusty wind, heavy precipitation – torrential rain with snow, downpour – those conditions under which drone flights would be in question. After all, such weather conditions create a very high risk that the drone will simply break. In all other conditions, the use of such equipment is, in a certain sense, possible. 

What other weaknesses do these drones have? 

We have official information that Iranian drones have a high failure rate. Some of them do not fly due to the fact that the structure itself is not sufficiently protected against failures. It is very simple, it uses not complicated civil technologies…

But over time, the risk components can be replaced. This will increase the danger of this equipment even at low temperatures.

Today, kamikaze drones are being destroyed by air defense forces. But speaking of technology, perhaps there is some shortcut to disable Iranian UAVs?

There are many options for combating UAVs, but I would not say that by simply turning off the GPS, we will be able to easily deprive the Iranian “mopeds” of the ability to strike. Even in the absence of navigation, these drones continue to perform their mission according to the inertial system. That is, they will try to hit the target in any case. 

At the same time, it is worth understanding that it is good when such a drone does not hit the programmed target. However, this device is still loaded with explosives: wherever it falls, there will be damage…  

In general, “Shahids” are created for autonomous navigation. They are able to create certain non-linear routes, that is, change the trajectory during flights. And the basis of their work is navigation using a satellite.

It is possible to break it. So technologies to disable these drones are currently under consideration. And although inside the “Shahids” there are certain boards that allow filtering, for example, fake GPS signals, in my opinion, all this is a matter of time. Eventually, after all, a mechanism will be selected that will not allow Russia to use these kamikaze drones. True, then “Shahid” can modernize again. That is, in this way, we will have an arms race. 

What developments does Ukraine need in this race today?

I believe that our country has all the necessary range of equipment that allows us to create truly revolutionary things on the battlefield and to have the ability to win back all temporarily occupied territories. 

If we talk about drones, Ukraine already has innovative equipment, access to which improves every week, which helps to quickly create new Ukrainian models. At the beginning of a full-scale war, we did not have such a number of drones that could be put into service with the Armed Forces. It was about three or four conventional UAV models. But thanks to the work of our developers, this number has increased several times. Over the past month alone, more than ten new models have been adopted by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 

At the beginning of October, you told UNIAN about the need for mass production of drones to meet the needs of the Armed Forces. How far have we come in achieving this goal? 

A certain revolution has taken place in the last two months. The Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Digital Transformation are joining the process to drive the development of diverse IT teams. There are teams that have gone far ahead. And there are those who concentrated on the development of certain elements: radio communication systems, autopilots or even just ammunition for Ukrainian kamikaze drones. In general, it is possible to observe an increase in the number of such development teams that assemble Ukrainian drones. 

What are these teams?  

There are a lot of people who want to create something. Some of the volunteers come together around the idea of ​​creating equipment because they have some experience or had a similar hobby. They have a volunteer history of creation: they themselves look for sources of funding and develop really interesting samples. 

We also see the development of ideas from existing development teams. That is, specialists who worked exclusively with large drones are currently producing updated models for reconnaissance with a different radius of action, covering another need of the Armed Forces. They do it qualitatively and systematically.

An example of the development of such groups is the already well-known reconnaissance drone “Shark”, which operates at a distance of up to 50 kilometers. Its developers were the team of the Ukrainian company Ukrspecsystems. 

There are also teams that exist as units in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They have the ability to move people from different departments to themselves, creating a kind of development center directly within the departments. 

Are new Ukrainian developments the work of only Ukrainian specialists or invited foreign specialists?

This is also an interesting story. Developers from all over the world are coming to Ukrainians today. We have examples when international groups of open source software developers united in order to help Ukrainians. These are the developers of various Ukrainian autopilots for drones, and teams that, for example, exist within the Dronecode foundation, joining various Ukrainian teams to help. 

We have examples when specialists from Switzerland helped and were involved in the development of Ukrainian equipment. There are examples when specialists from the USA did the same. Even Australian IT specialists help Ukrainians. Of course, they are not physically present here, but they remotely participate in the creation of truly advanced examples of equipment.  

Is there mass production of drones in Ukraine? 

This information is quite specific, and perhaps even secret. In my subjective opinion, Ukrainians are already at the stage when our production can be called mass production. We are talking about aerial reconnaissance. First of all, drones are our eyes in the sky. Their main function is always intelligence. 

When we talk about strike drones, or kamikaze drones, the dynamics are somewhat different. The equipment of combat drones is somewhat more complicated. Nevertheless, their production is also developing in Ukraine. And here, too, we will later see revolutionary changes. 

If we talk about shock technologies, in addition to our own developments, we already have Switchblade, Bayraktar TB2 and the new Sokil drone from Ukroboronprom.

But whether Ukrainian drones are involved in, say, “cotton” on the territory of the Russian Federation, it is too early to say. 

Ukroboronprom project manager Oleg Boldarev said that Ukraine already has a “zero patient” – a Ukrainian strike drone with a range of one thousand kilometers and the possibility of return. Is it about the Falcon drone? 

I’m not sure, so I won’t comment. The thing is that there are a lot of drones at the development stage. It is not clear which one we are talking about. And although the distance of 1000 km seems long, it is not somehow unattainable for Ukrainian developers. 

Today, the development of the Sokil-300 often appears in the news. It is unequivocally clear that this is a UAV that will strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities in various directions. It has a long enough range – the distance to get information from it – to work deep inside enemy territory. It is also known that “Sokil” is a new reconnaissance drone with the possibility of carrying certain weapons on board. 

What other examples of Ukrainian developers can we talk about?

Recently, the ex-CEO of Microsoft-Ukraine, Dmytro Shimkiv, who is currently working with the Aerodron development team, said that two of their developments were handed over to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We are talking about the D-80 and E-300 drone models. These drones can carry cargo while staying high in the air for quite a long time. The first model allows you to lift a load weighing up to 80 kilograms, and the second will carry up to 300 kilograms on board.  

Anastasia Svitlevska 

(C)UNIAN 2022