Ekaterina Zhiriy10:47, 31.01.25

Another 200,000 people are expected to leave the country this year, but they will return later.

During 2024, the outflow of migrants from Ukraine continued and in total for the year amounted to about 500 thousand people, and this trend is expected to continue in 2025.

As stated in the NBU’s “Inflation Report”, security risks and power outages have a negative impact on the quality of life of Ukrainians, which leads to their leaving the country. The NBU assumed that this situation will continue this year. They predict that another 200,000 people will leave the country.

However, starting in 2026, people will begin to return to Ukraine (about 0.2 million people), which will accelerate in 2027 (about 0.5 million people).

The National Bank explained that the reduction in the share of those wishing to return is happening because Ukrainians are adapting abroad. Therefore, a mass and rapid return of Ukrainians home under the status quo is unlikely, as a result of which the labor shortage will persist in the coming years.

“This will lead to the preservation of imbalances in the labor market and wage growth at a rate higher than the increase in productivity in certain sectors, which will increase inflationary pressure. The slow return of migrants home will also limit the recovery of domestic demand,” the NBU noted.

The risks of a greater outflow of migrants abroad and a smaller return of them remain. In such a situation, the state of the labor market will worsen, and domestic consumer demand may decrease. At the same time, a change in the policy of recipient countries towards Ukrainian migrants and the policy of the Ukrainian authorities to return migrants home may improve the situation.

(c)UNIAN 2025