18 December 2025
The economic slowdown has sent trucking companies and truck manufacturers into a tailspin. Last winter, market participants say, demand for trucking fell by about a third compared to the 2024 average and has not recovered.
The situation in the transport industry in 2025 could be described as critical: up to 40% of trucks are idle, according to a review by the HSE Development Center.
According to Rosstat, freight rates this year are 7.4% higher than last year (based on the 10-month results), but market participants say otherwise: around 2024-2025, rates began to fall in line with demand, while carrier costs continued to rise. As a result, by mid-year, the cost per kilometer was 66 rubles, while carriers’ actual costs reached 82 rubles. Rates have now recovered to approximately 75 rubles per kilometer, but this is not enough to pull the industry out of the crisis.
The result has been mass carrier bankruptcies: according to market participants, approximately 7,000 transport companies—or approximately 7-10% of market participants—are currently in bankruptcy or liquidation. Next year, approximately 10% more will be at financial risk, resulting in the industry approaching a point where carrier withdrawals could escalate into a systemic crisis.
“Industry experts and company representatives are noting the risks of a deterioration in the financial health of freight carriers, primarily medium-sized and large firms,” the Gaidar Institute writes . One of the main problems is the high debt burden: “While a few years ago, the interest rate for leasing a truck could be around 15%, recently it has reached 30%. This hinders fleet renewal, where the average age of a carrier’s vehicle reaches 23 years, the Gaidar Institute concludes.
The Development Center notes that there are few people willing to invest in the industry: high interest rates, which have increased loan and lease payments, are hindering this, as well as the fact that “investing in long-term projects against the backdrop of an unpredictable market seems unpromising to investors.”
Freight carriers are convinced that next year will be even more challenging, and therefore price increases for their services are inevitable. Rising fuel prices, repair costs for spare parts, and truck prices themselves will continue to weigh on the market. In 2026, in addition to the “traditional” factors, market participants and experts emphasize, there will be an increase in taxes, fees, and fines from the Platon system. Andrey Myshkin, deputy director of the transport company PEK, estimates that the VAT increase will increase costs by 3%.
Furthermore, the Ministry of Transport warned that next year, the reduction factor used to calculate tolls for trucks weighing over 12 tons in the Platon system will be reduced and abolished . As a result, tolls for trucks will increase from 3.34 rubles per kilometer to 5.1 rubles per kilometer starting in March. And starting in February 2028, they will increase by approximately a quarter more. Furthermore, logistics providers are preparing for fines for non-payers to increase from 5,000 to 20,000 rubles per violation – a law passed in its first reading.
To top it all off, starting next year, the revenue threshold for companies using the simplified tax system (STS) will be reduced threefold to 20 million rubles per year. Even individual entrepreneurs with one truck, who account for up to half of the freight transportation market, will struggle to meet this threshold. The number of VAT payers in the industry will increase sharply—another reason for rising transportation costs, explains the owner of a transport company.
This year, it has increased by at least 10%, and will rise even more in 2026, according to market participants. “There’s no escape; our estimates suggest that production costs will increase by at least another 12%, meaning customer rates will have to be raised by at least 15%,” says a top manager at a federal transport company.
This will impact other prices. According to the Association of Road Freight Carriers and Forwarders “AvtoGruzEx,” the share of logistics in the final price of goods ranges from 2% to 16%.
A top manager at a major transportation company fears that a comparable increase in effective demand from cargo owners is unlikely, meaning companies will have a hard time passing on increased costs to customers. According to MA Research analysts, only a moderate (approximately 3%) increase in demand for road freight transportation can be expected next year.
All this economic damage just for a few percentages of Ukrainian territory, which the vampire will never be able to hold for long.
putler has two choices. Destroy russia, or destroy himself. Either will do for me, preferably both.
I guess it’ll be both.
Nothing will save mafia land, not even back door deals from Witless and kushner.
Yes, that’s true. The mafia state has already passed the point of no return.
10% of trucking co and truck manufacturers are already bankrupt? Atesh has the trains smoking, you can’t use rubles, oil isn’t pumping and Vladolf doesn’t have any spare parts for planes…we’ve almost shut down Mordor