Feb 01, 2024
00:50
Donald Trump Suffers Polling Blow Among Independents
US News ReporterFOLLOW
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Joe Biden is on course to defeat Donald Trump in November with two more electoral college votes than he secured in 2020, assuming they are the respective Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, according to a new study.
The report by Moody’s Analytics, which specializes in modeling political and economic events, predicted Biden is on course to win a second term “by a thin margin,” picking up North Carolina, but being defeated in Arizona, which he won in 2020.
Following their victories in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries, Biden and Trump are the strong favorites to be their respective party’s standard bearers in November, setting up a rematch of the 2020 election.
Moody’s Analytics released its study, created by chief economist Mark Zandi, senior economist Brendan LaCerda and economist Justin Begley, at the end of January, predicting which candidate would win each state and the District of Columbia based on factors including past voting trends, approval ratings and the state of the economy.
They concluded: “President Biden is expected to win re-election but by a thin margin, and the election could easily flip with only small shifts in the economy’s performance, his approval rating, voter turnout, and how well third-party candidates do. On the margin, political factors favor Trump’s candidacy, while economic factors favor Biden’s.”
In the analysis, Biden won 308 electoral college votes, two more than he achieved in 2020, and 38 more than required for victory. However the margin in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania would be very tight, at less than 1 percentage point per state, meaning “the outcome may not be determined on election night as several states face the prospect of automatic recounts and court challenges.”
The model gives Biden some leeway, as even if he loses North Carolina and Nevada he’d still win overall by 16 electoral college votes, while also losing Georgia would bring the incumbent to the exact threshold he needs for a second term. However, also losing Pennsylvania would be fatal, with Moody’s concluding “the upcoming presidential election will likely be determined” in that state.
Newsweek has approached representatives of Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaigns for comment by email.
Moody’s admits its analysis for the 2020 election was faulty, when it incorrectly forecast a Trump re-election, and emphasised that “the upcoming presidential election will be close.”
It concluded: “If the economy continues to perform well as we anticipate and voter turnout and third-party vote share remain close to their recent historical norms, President Biden should win re-election. But these are big assumptions in a highly uncertain economic time and given our highly fractured and contentious politics.”
A new Quinnipiac University survey conducted January 25-29 found Biden is leading Trump by 50 percent to 44 percent in the national presidential matchup, up from 47 percent against 46 percent in the previous survey the university conducted in December. Biden had built up a particularly strong lead of 52 percent to 40 percent with independent voters, according to the poll.
Trump did it!
I’m a lifelong Republican. And, I’m not a big fan of Biden. Nor do I condone the situation on our border. But, sometimes in life, one must choose a lesser evil. In this case, the lesser evil is Biden. Trump did it … he managed to make me want a Democrat to be the next president again. And it’s all because of his traitorous behavior and the disgraceful, reprehensible, intolerable behavior of a group of dirty politicians who dare call themselves Republicans. Their refusal to accept Biden’s compromise on border security for the sake of Trump’s political goals was the last straw for me. Thus, this article is good news and I hope its prediction will come to pass.
Sorry, Red, but you’ve failed to give me even a single, small reason for not feeling the way I do about this.
If Nikki defeats Trumpkov that would be even better; two pro-Ukraine contenders!
If as seems horribly likely, Trumpkov is the GOP nominee, putler has a 50-50 chance of his asset getting back in the WH. In that scenario, we would have to hope that Reagan Republicans would hold their noses and vote Dem.
That would be optimal.
Naturally, I still hope for a Nikki victory over Trump, but if not, then I’ll have to vote for Biden.
OFP you read my mind. Absolutely right on. I just wish we can get an alternative. Right now my hopes are the effort to create the third party…NO LABELS. Last I heard they achieved getting registered in about 25 states and are confident they can get all states in. Seems like Joe Manchin could be their candidate who has been pro Ukraine and although he’s a democrat , outside of Nikki, he is close to being a Reagan republican
Yeah, effing Joe Manchin, who has been a pro-coal-energy thorn in the Dems’ side, preventing and watering down important bills, sure will attract some conservative voters. But hardly any on the center-left side. Whatever, still better than voting for Trump, that’s for sure.
Joe Manchin would certainly be a good alternative, Sir Cap.
Agreed. I’d still like Nikki. It would be awesome if she would head that ticket. She’d kick the crap out of both dems and republicans and send a clear message to the life long politicians…,yours fucking up and we don’t like it.
Kudos to you, Mr. Ofp. You prove that being conservative doesn’t necessarily mean to be a radical. I hope more moderate conservatives feel the same way about Trump and his crazy, aggressive mob.
I’m one of them, Mister Gray.
😎👍
I’m sure that there are, but the big question is, will there be enough?
By the way Moody Analytics has 50/50 track record. I wouldn’t put all my money behind their analytics IMHO
Yeah, that prediction is basing on too many assumptions. Most importantly, i don’t believe voter turnout for the main contenders will be on the same level as 2020. The question is, imho, who has lost more sympathies, Trump or Biden. With the large number of battleground states in play, the needle can swing in either direction. Too much can happen til election day to predict the outcome with any certainty.
Of course, Cap. It’s still a ways to go for the elections. Lots can still happen.
Polls at this point are worthless. I’ve seen polls go either way.
I’d have to strongly disagree that Biden is the lesser evil. The man, and the people behind him are evil and vile to their core. They have not supported Ukraine in the way needed. I doubt they want Ukraine to win.