Reporting From Ukraine

Day 753: Mar 17

Today, there is a lot of news from the Bakhmut direction.

Here, the most interesting developments happened in the southern part of the region, where Russian forces completely changed their offensive plan, opened a new vector of attack, and conducted a series of powerful assaults south of Ivanivske.

The reason why Russian forces suddenly decided to adjust their approach is twofold.

First of all, the village of Ivanivske has been reduced to ruins by Russian artillery and aviation, and with nowhere to seek shelter, it became increasingly hard for Russians to establish stable footholds inside the village. As a result, Russians sustained losses so heavy that they had to halt their attacks for replenishment and regrouping, as reported by Ukrainian fighters.

Secondly, Ukrainian fighters have exacerbated problems for the Russians even more by establishing their main positions around the settlement and turning it into a kill zone. If we look at the topographic map, we can see the tactical elevation to the northwest of the village, which gave Ukrainians the ability to observe and strike Russians who were trying to advance along the road.

Russian forces had already tried to assault Ukrainian positions on the hills, however, Ukrainians managed to withstand Russian artillery strikes and bombardments, followed up by intense infantry assaults. Since their plan of bypassing Ivanivske from the north failed, the Russian commanders decided to try bypassing the village from the south.

The main goal of Russian forces was to reach the forest, establish a foothold, and cut off Ukrainian supplies coming across the passage over the canal. Once Russian forces dig in, they could expand their offensive effort by moving north through the forest, gradually approaching the hills.

If the Russians manage to reach the hills, it would enable them to cut off the supply road and also seize the positions behind Ukrainian positions at the tactical elevation, which would allow them to strike Ukrainians from the rear. Such developments would put Ukrainians on the hill and in the village in a pocket and allow Russians to take control of the rest of the village and advance further towards the main stronghold in the next phase of their assault.

The first Russian attacks targeted Ukrainian positions in the tree lines just south of the village. Russian forces conducted mechanized assaults by driving through the southern street of the village and attaching Ukrainian positions in the tree lines from the north. Based on the nature of previous assaults in the region, Russians also seem to have conducted infantry assaults across the fields.
Ukrainian fighters reported that initially, Russians made incremental progress, advancing up to two kilometers to the south of the village. Nonetheless, the moment Russian forces reached the approach to the forest, their progress stalled, and Ukrainian forces retook the initiative. It seems like Russians overextended themselves, as it is very difficult to accumulate forces in the sparsely located positions across the fields while attacking densely located Ukrainian positions in the forest.

Moreover, Ukrainian fighters from the Ninety-Third Mechanize Brigade released many videos showing how their drone operators conducted a concentrated raid on Russian positions in the fields. The footage features dozens of strikes on Russian shelters that further complicated Russian forces accumulation efforts. These strikes, in combination with Ukrainian ground operations, resulted in the collapse of the front line. So, Ukrainians managed to repel the Russian flank attack and pushed them back to ground zero. Ukrainian soldiers reported that in the end, all Russian assaults were in vain, and Russians suffered heavy losses in manpower and equipment.

Overall, Russian forces underestimated the density of Ukrainian fortification southwest of Ivanivske, and failed to conduct a partial envelopment of the village from the south. The inability to supply the attacking forces through the death zone lead to the fast culmination of the offensive effort, and collapse of the bridgehead.

But what is even more important, Russians forces failed to reach Chasiv Yar by early spring. Based on the intercepted radio talks, Russians maintained such a high pace of the operation, sustaining much higher than necessary losses in manpower and equipment only…