Roman Sheremeta

Nov 19, 2024

1000 days of russian war crimes, 1000 days of killing, 1000 days of torture, 1000 days of rape, 1000 days of executions of POWs.

But also 1000 days of Ukrainian bravery!

………….

How long can russia sustain the war?

Here are some calculations to address this question:

1. Artillery

• At the current rate of firing, russia requires about 2.5-4k artillery barrels per year. Including direct losses in battle, the total annual need is approximately 4-5k barrels.
• Before the invasion, russia had nearly 17k artillery units in long-term storage warehouses.
• Satellite images indicate that at least 10k units have already been removed from storage over the three years of war, aligning with loss estimates.
• According to satellite data, about one-third of the artillery in warehouses is irreparable. By next year, russia may face a shortage of artillery barrels.
• To conserve resources, russia will likely reduce its artillery use to around 5k shells per day. This would extend the lifespan of their artillery by 1-2 years but significantly limit their offensive capabilities.
• As an alternative, russia could rely on aerial bombs. However, with the introduction of F-16s, the future of russian heavy aviation is uncertain.

1. Tanks

• The situation with tanks differs. Russia has sufficient tanks to sustain the war until at least 2027–2029.
• However, tank production and restoration capabilities are limited.
• Russian tanks suffered the heaviest losses during the war’s first year, as initial tactics relied on large armored columns vulnerable to ambushes.
• In 2023, russia increased production and can now supply around 1.5k tanks annually, including restored older models.
• Satellite images reveal that 30–40% of stored tanks are beyond repair, often stripped of engines or turrets and left in open storage.
• This growing difficulty in replenishing tank losses will gradually lead to equipment exhaustion, but it may take years. Additionally, russia will likely use any pauses in offensives to rebuild tank forces in the rear.

1. Armored Vehicles

• The situation with armored vehicles is similar to tanks, but russian stockpiles are not as extensive.
• Armored vehicles are lost more quickly, and if current tactics remain unchanged, russia’s armored capabilities could degrade significantly in the next 3–4 years.

1. Soldiers

• Human resources remain one of Putin’s most reliable assets.
• Each year, russia conscripts more people into military service than it mobilizes into the army, maintaining a steady mobilization reserve.
• The main uncertainty lies in the willingness of russians to continue fighting. So far, there are no signs of significant public opposition to the war.

………..

Olaf Scholz is a modern-day “knight” of Europe – or, perhaps more accurately, a lame duck.

Somehow, this “knight” thought he was being clever by initiating a conversation with Putin. Likely, his intention was to signal to Trump that he is a European “peacemaker.”

Putin, however, accepted the call for an entirely different reason. To him, Scholz’s outreach was a sign of weakness – an indication that Europe might be ready to capitulate and plead for mercy.

In Putin’s eyes, Europeans are merely puppets of the U.S. By showing weakness, Scholz inadvertently strengthened Putin’s negotiating position with Trump.

Following the call, Putin reportedly presented Scholz with a long list of capitulation terms and broadcasted these demands across russian state media. The very next day, he launched one of the largest missile attacks on Ukraine, killing civilians and destroying infrastructure.

Why would the lame-duck Scholz take such an action? Why haven’t European leaders learned anything from the past 100 years of dealing with this “empire of evil”?

Russian tactics have remained unchanged since Soviet times and are well-documented by Alexey Gromyko, the renowned Soviet-era foreign minister. Their strategy is built on three principles:

1. Demand the maximum: Don’t request, but demand things that were never yours to begin with.
2. Present ultimatums and threats: Use pressure as leverage.
3. Concede nothing: Hold firm, knowing that there will always be Western leaders willing to make concessions.

……….

Ukraine has received U.S. approval to use long-range ATACMS missiles on russian territory. This decision comes in response to russia’s move to deploy North Korean troops in the war.

The missiles will likely be used against russian and North Korean forces to defend Ukrainian troops in the Kursk oblast.

This permission should have been given a long time ago. Truly sad that it has taken thousands of Ukrainian lives for the permission to be granted. Sometimes it feels as if the amount of Western support directly depends on how much Ukrainian blood is shed.

………….

“No one will stop Putin with phone calls,” says Polish Prime Minister Tusk.

Shortly after the call with Scholz, Putin launched one of the largest missile attacks since the full-scale invasion, striking Ukraine with 210 missiles and drones.

The only thing that can stop Putin is strength, not weakness. Weakness escalates and provokes war. In Putin’s “bandit’s Petersburg” playbook, phone calls are a sign of weakness. Negotiations are seen as weakness.

Strength means arming Ukraine to the teeth and making clear demands for Russia to end this war – or face even greater consequences.

………….

And finally:

Another painful reminder that Ukraine has a relatively new, increasingly powerful and incredibly hateful enemy :

This is really sad.

Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy said in an interview: “The US cannot force us to “sit and listen” at the negotiating table. We are an independent country,”

Elon Musk responded by saying: “His sense of humor is amazing.”

Denying Ukrainian agency and its sovereignty is exactly the portion of russia. And apparently, it’s the position of Elon Musk.

The really sad part is that Musk has a huge audience that listens to him and believes him.