10.03.2026
Large-scale counterattacks by Ukrainian forces on the southern front in early March 2026 created a critical situation for the Russian command. The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ tactical successes near Orekhov and Huliaipole are turning into operational problems for the aggressor, jeopardizing the Kremlin’s ambitious plans to seize the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Following the launch of counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian Dnepr Force Group has almost completely lost its offensive momentum in key areas of the front, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War.
The failure of the “pincers” of Orekhov and Gulyaipole
According to ISW analysis, Russian forces’ attempt to pincer Orekhov by advancing simultaneously from the east (from Hulyaipole) and west failed. Ukrainian forces not only halted the advance of the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army but also drove the enemy out of several settlements.
The active actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces forced Russian units to switch to a deep defense instead of preparing for the announced summer offensive.
One of the reasons for the success of the Ukrainian counterattacks was the overconfidence of the Russian command. Using infiltration tactics, penetrating small groups of infantry into the rear, the Russian occupiers neglected to consolidate their positions.
The lack of fortifications at the newly captured positions allowed the Ukrainian Armed Forces to quickly recapture lost territory. Furthermore, the Starlink blockade, which took effect on February 1, dealt a serious blow to Russian logistics and command and control, disorienting Putin’s army at a critical moment in the Ukrainian offensive.
Cascading reserve crisis
The situation in the Zaporizhia region is forcing the Russian command to make urgent and risky decisions. To hold the front near Orekhov, Russia plans to withdraw troops from the Kherson direction, which will expose the Dnieper River coastline.
It is also known that the 137th Airborne Regiment was transferred to the Kherson region, but due to the threat that arose near Sumy (Yunakovka area), some units had to be urgently returned.
The transfer of marines and airborne troops from the Donetsk region to the south undermines the ability of Russian occupiers to advance in the main direction – against the Ukrainian defensive wall in Donbas.
The Kremlin’s Strategic Deadlock
Analysts emphasize that a series of local counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces has become a strategic problem for Russia. Limited human resources prevent Moscow from simultaneously containing breakthroughs in the south and preparing a large-scale attack in the Donetsk region.
Currently, Russian troops are demonstrating an inability to breach Ukraine’s fortified defenses, despite dictator Putin’s regular claims of superiority. According to ISW analysts, the Kremlin will likely be forced to either completely revise its 2026 campaign plan or admit the impossibility of achieving its stated goals of seizing large territories.
It was previously reported that Huliaipole in the Zaporizhzhia region is currently almost occupied , according to Ukrainian defenders. However, the overall situation in the Zaporizhzhia sector is “very dynamic,” and the Defense Forces’ counteroffensive continues.
As OBOZ.UA reported, Ukrainian defenders carried out a successful operation, halting the occupiers’ advance on Zaporizhia. At the same time, Ukrainian troops inflicted significant losses on the enemy and replenished their reserves.