03/14/2026
In the last two weeks of February 2026, Ukrainian defenders liberated more territory than they lost. This happened for the first time since the summer counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2023.
This is stated in the latest analytical summary of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). At the same time, the Institute criticizes the current American government, which has not provided Ukraine with the necessary weapons.
Liberation of Ukrainian lands
ISW recalls the words of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (the words were spoken on March 3) that since the beginning of 2026, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have returned at least 460 square kilometers. The Institute ” has evidence that since January, Ukrainian troops have precisely liberated 257 square kilometers.”
At the same time, ISW notes that the number named by the Ukrainian leader may be reliable – in their calculations they relied only on open data and did not take into account the so-called “gray zones.”
Either way, Ukrainian defenders “achieved a net gain of almost 33 square kilometers between February 14 and 20,” and “at least 57 square kilometers between February 21 and 27,” ISW notes.
The last time Ukrainian soldiers “had a net gain in territory was during the summer counteroffensive of 2023,” the Institute reminds.
“Ukraine’s recent successes on the battlefield have thwarted Russia’s efforts to create the conditions for its spring-summer offensive in 2026 and will force Russian forces to first establish a stable defense before beginning the fight to regain lost positions,” ISW believes.
Lack of the necessary weapons
Separately, the Institute emphasized that Ukrainian soldiers achieved this success in the absence of weapons support from the United States.
“Ukraine has repeatedly requested American-made Tomahawk missiles, a request that the United States ultimately rejected in the fall of 2025. However, providing even a small number of Tomahawks to Ukraine by the United States would allow the Ukrainian armed forces to significantly damage or completely destroy key missile and drone production and storage facilities deep in the Russian rear … Such Tomahawk strikes could significantly worsen Russia’s missile and drone campaign against Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure in the winter of 2025-2026,” ISW emphasized.
The Kremlin’s alternative reality
“The Russian military command continues to operate in an alternative reality, setting unrealistic terms (of occupation) that do not correspond to Russia’s real combat capabilities,” ISW believes.
We are talking about Moscow’s plans to occupy the rest of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, continue its advance in the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, as well as advance deep into and capture the Odessa region. And although the ISW acknowledges ” the Kremlin’s disinterest in freezing the front line,” the Institute’s experts are confident ” that Russian troops are unlikely to be able to advance to Odessa, let alone capture the entire region .”
As OBOZ.UA reported, Ukrainian servicemen carried out two separate offensives in the Dnipropetrovsk region and advanced 10–12 kilometers deep into enemy positions. Thus, since the end of January 2026, more than 400 square kilometers of territory have been liberated as a result of these actions. Moreover, the military operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this region is still ongoing.
As much as I dislike Musk, I need to give him a 1/2 ounce of credit.
Me too. But. like I said before, I hope this is a lasting thing.
How did Peskov put it…their reality is changing
But in a different way from what he thought.