Ukraine in Focus
By Svitlana Morenets
Dec 19, 2025
Portrait of the week in Ukraine
- EU leaders struck a deal to give Kyiv a £79bn loan jointly funded by the bloc after failing to agree on using frozen Russian assets.
- Ukrainian drones struck a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker in the Mediterranean Sea for the first time.
- Ukrainian and US delegates will hold another round of peace talks in Miami this weekend while Russia’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev also meetsDonald Trump’s aides in the city.
- European leaders presented a six-point plan for security guarantees and economic recovery for Ukraine after Monday’s talks in Berlin.
- The joint US-Ukraine investment fund will go live early next year, allowing sponsors to submit proposals.
- Kyiv and Berlin signed a new defence agreement, with Germany allocating £10bn in support to Ukraine next year.
- Ukrainian drones will be manufactured in Europe on an industrial scale for the first time under a joint Ukrainian-German venture.
- Volodymyr Zelensky said he supports online voting for Ukrainians living abroad in a future presidential election.
- Europe has launched an International Claims Commission to compensate Ukraine for damages from the Russian invasion.
- Ukrainian long-range drones struck the Belbek airbase in occupied Crimea, destroying air defence equipment and a fighter jet.
Wider reading on the war
- Russia’s shadow fleet is doubling as a spy asset– CNN
- ‘We risk losing foreign fighters’: the 2nd International Legion speaks out about its unit being disbanded – Ukrainska pravda
- Belgian politicians and finance bosses targeted by Russian intelligence over seized assets – Guardian
- Article Five without Nato: Why security guarantees may fail to protect Ukraine – Kyiv Independent
- Ukraine scrabbles for handholds against Russia’s massive assault – Economist
The analysis
Putin still wants victory, not peace
Speaking at his choreographed annual news conference this morning, Vladimir Putin declared he will achieve his goals by force if Ukraine refuses to agree to Russia’s terms for ending the war. Like a broken record, the Russian President repeated his maximalist demands for peace, insisting that Kyiv cede not only the Donbas region in the east but also the partially occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. When asked by a US journalist whether rejecting Donald Trump’s peace proposal would make him responsible for Ukrainian and Russian deaths next year, Putin replied: ‘We do not consider ourselves responsible for the deaths of people, because we didn’t start this war.’ Curtain.
Putin’s conference in Moscow, where he sat in front of a huge projected map of Russia which included four illegally annexed regions of Ukraine and Crimea, revealed he has no intention of entering serious negotiations. The moment it became clear that US and Ukrainian delegates had come close to some kind of compromise on the Donbas during peace talks, Putin reverted to his summer ultimatum: he called for Ukraine to cede even more land to Russia or else have it taken by force. His appetite has grown in direct proportion to the pressure Trump’s administration has applied on Ukraine to sign a peace deal. No matter what compromises Kyiv and Washington agree on, the final word will always rest with Moscow.
It seems the Kremlin will continue pretending to consider a deal this weekend as Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev meets US delegates in Miami. Dmitriev will be briefed on the talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Berlin this week, as Washington tries to persuade the Russian government to accept an updated proposal. The US is reportedly preparing new sanctions on Russia’s energy sector if Putin rejects the deal, although whether these are given the green light depends on the notoriously fickle Trump. Indeed, it looks implausible that further penalties will be introduced, given Washington has today lifted sanctions on several firms that previously supplied equipment to Russia, including to its defence sector.
The Kremlin also rejected a Christmas truce put forward by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, saying it could give Ukraine’s forces time to recover and regroup. In reality, Putin has no reason to order his troops to halt their costly but steady advance along the frontline. Last month, Russian forces seized almost 200 square miles of Ukrainian territory – almost twice as much as in September. In the eastern city of Myrnohrad, Ukrainian soldiers have been encircled; further north, the city of Siversk is on the brink of falling. Even after passing the toll of one million casualties, even as the fourth anniversary of his full-scale war looms, Putin believes he can still win in the new year.
This newsletter will return in January. Until then, I wish you a very merry Christmas and, above all, peace.
In pictures
Novorossiysk, Russia: Smoke billows from the Black Sea as Ukrainian underwater drones attacked a Russian submarine in a historic first. (Ukraine’s Security Service)
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Quote of the week
‘Supporting Ukraine is not charity. It is the most important investment we can make in our own security… Had we left Brussels divided today, Europe would have walked away from geopolitical relevance. It would have been a total disaster, and we would have sent a message to the world that Europe can no longer deliver anything.’
– Bart De Wever, the Belgian Prime Minister, on the EU’s decision to give Kyiv a £79bn loan.
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The war in numbers
Russian oil prices dropped to
$40
per barrel on average, a record low since February 2022
The EU imposed sanctions on another
41
vessels in Russia’s shadow fleet, bringing the total number of sanctioned ships to 600
Russia’s central bank filed a lawsuit seeking
£170 billion
from Belgian security depository Euroclear, which houses many frozen Russian assets
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A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectat