putin loses face as russian advance near Kostiantynivka implodes (video commentary)

01/27/2026

Today, the biggest news comes from the Kostiantynivka direction.

Here, Russian forces have exaggerated their advance, reporting to their command that they have reached and even entered Kostiantynivka. Despite these claims, the reality on the ground looks different, and the Russian military analysts are sounding the alarm about the imminent collapse even worse than that just suffered at Kupiansk.

Inflated Russian progress reports have produced a discrepancy of approximately seven kilometers between claimed and actual frontline positions. The scale of misrepresentation by the Russian command has become so massive that even traditionally supportive military analysts are openly exposing the credibility of reported advances north of Kostiantynivka. Even Maiske, near Chasiv Yar, remains contested despite being reported as captured three months ago, while Klynove, located further west and important for the Ukrainian defense, was prematurely declared under Russian control, without the Russians even reaching it. In reality, Russian forces have struggled to achieve meaningful advances near Chasiv Yar, as the area remains a heavily fortified zone, designated by the Ukrainians to protect territory both to the west and to prevent the encirclement of Kostiantynivka.

False reporting of territorial control creates severe problems for Russian assault units across all levels. At the tactical level, units advance under false assumptions that positions are secured, leading to ambushes and high casualties. Artillery and drone fires are often misaligned with reality, increasing the risk of friendly fire or insufficient fire support. Assaults are frequently ordered prematurely, before consolidation, resupply, or proper reconnaissance, resulting in suicide attacks against intact Ukrainian defenses. At the command-and-control level, distorted reports undermine decision-making, as the higher command reallocates reserves based on fictitious gains.

Believing they had succeeded north of Kostiantynivka, the Russian command ordered a renewed offensive from the south, with the idea of putting more pressure on the Ukrainian defense by trying to advance near the Kleban-Byk reservoir. Footage from the Ukrainian 28th Brigade shows how their skilled drone operators, obviously not so overwhelmed as the Russians expected, are operating around the town and hunting down infiltrating Russian soldiers with FPV drones and drone-dropped grenades. Those who managed to slip through by exploiting the bad weather conditions and entrenched themselves are then attacked by Ukrainian infantry, whose job is to clear the outskirts before the Russians can consolidate.

In addition to more losses without a real chance of success, there is also a significant strategic risk for Russia because Ukraine retains the ability to reverse the battle at a politically sensitive moment, notably during negotiations. Ukraine can launch localized counteractions, infiltrate far behind by sending forces to operate up to 10 kilometers behind the Russian-reported front line, directly exposing the gap between narrative and battlefield reality, just like in Kupiansk.

If, suddenly, while claiming to have encircled Kostiantynivka, Russian troops find themselves in encirclement, in a similar disaster, this could lead to a complete halt in offensive operations that would derail Russia’s ambitions of taking the rest of Donbas under control. Without Kostiantynivka, Russia would not be able to advance further, and its plans would be delayed by months, as the winter window for attacks is short, and then the spring mud season follows.

Kostiantynivka represents a key Russian target, as its capture would allow Russian forces to even the frontline, consolidate control over an estimated 400 square kilometers of territory, and provide them a foothold for subsequent operations against Druzhkivka. From there, Russian forces could advance northward to apply pressure on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk from the south. Failing to capture it would be even more catastrophic on the political front than what happened in Kupiansk, because Russia repeatedly claimed that the capture of the entire Donetsk Region is one of its main goals in the war. Continuous failure to achieve this objective would represent another reputational setback for Putin and undermine efforts to portray Russian advances as inevitable, weakening the Russian narrative that the fall of the Donbas is looming large.

Overall, false reporting may create the appearance of progress within parts of the Russian command structure and the Russian public, but it does not translate into real battlefield gains. On the contrary, it systematically amplifies Russian losses, making the capture of Kostiantynivka less likely rather than a matter of time…