03/20/2026
ISW now confirms that Ukraine is actively disrupting Russia’s spring offensive before it can fully develop. In this breakdown, we look at the surge in Ukrainian drone strikes targeting industrial facilities, logistics hubs, and air defenses, along with the rise of mid-range strike capabilities that are shifting the battlefield. We also analyze Russian losses, operational tempo, and what military bloggers inside Russia are now admitting. The key question: is this just friction—or the beginning of a failed offensive?
- ⏱️ Chapters
- 0:00 ISW confirms Russia’s offensive is faltering
- 0:20 Ukrainian drone strikes hit key industry
- 0:54 Achilles 429th unit shows new capabilities
- 1:19 Ukraine’s expanding mid-range drone power
- 2:07 Targeting Russian air defense and logistics
- 2:45 Shift toward FPV and mid-strike drones
- 3:33 The economics of drone warfare
- 4:40 Mapping Ukraine’s strike patterns
- 5:17 Hits on Russian nitrogen facilities
- 5:40 Russia’s drone activity and defenses
- 6:13 Mounting Russian losses in detail
- 7:05 Real-time casualty and equipment trends
- 8:10 Measuring the offensive’s intensity
- 8:55 ISW: Ukraine disrupting offensive prep
- 9:30 Defense holds on the Lyman axis10:11 Phoenix Regiment and Achilles impact
- 11:00 Russian milbloggers admit heavy losses
- 11:39 SBU arrests suspected infiltrator
- 12:03 Electronic warfare training expands
- 12:53 Kyiv battle anniversary context
Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points.
https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes