Elizabeth Bullock

Russia’s Modern War, Ukraine, Defence & Technology | Adviser and Public Speaker | Founder & CEO, Prammavox Ltd.

PRAMMAVOX Ltd.

London Area, United Kingdom

Jan 5, 2026

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘄𝗲 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗮 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲 𝗳𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮 𝘁𝗼 𝗠𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗴𝗮𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗿?

Russia has begun supplying weapons to Madagascar’s military-led government. On 20th December, a Russian Air Force aircraft reportedly flew in 40 Russian soldiers and 43 crates of weapons — including assault rifles, sniper rifles and anti-tank missile systems.

This was not routine military cooperation.

The delivery was led in person by no less than the deputy head of Russia’s GRU — commander of 𝗨𝗻𝗶𝘁 𝟮𝟵𝟭𝟱𝟱, 𝗮 𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲. He also leads former Wagner Group operations in Africa following the mercenary group’s collapse. That level of senior involvement signals key strategic intent.

Why does this matter?

• 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲
  As the image illustrates, Madagascar sits beside the Mozambique Channel — a critical artery for global east-west trade. When the Suez Canal or Red Sea routes are disrupted, shipping diverts around the Cape of Good Hope and passes directly through this corridor. Influence here equals leverage over Europe–Asia trade flows.
• 𝗗𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗼𝗳 𝗪𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀
  With Western states and the African Union pausing cooperation with Madagascar following the military coup in October, Russia is exploiting the vacuum. This is a familiar Russian playbook: arms deliveries, security guarantees and political backing in exchange for long-term strategic access.
• 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀
  Madagascar is a leading producer of graphite and holds significant deposits of nickel, cobalt, rare earth elements and precious stones — all strategically relevant to Western supply chains.
• 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮 𝗵𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲
  As pressure grows in the Black Sea and Mediterranean, Madagascar provides the alternative ports and logistics Russia needs for its shipping — including its shadow fleet.
• 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲
  Russia is planning to open a Rossotrudnichestvo cultural / soft-power centre in Madagascar to push pro-Kremlin narratives — part of a broader influence strategy across Africa.
• 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴-𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲
  Entrenched influence here could enable Moscow to exert future pressure on global commerce — without firing a shot.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀𝗻’𝘁 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗴𝗮𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗿. 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮 𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗲𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗲𝗹𝘀𝗲𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲.

Comment from :

Andrew Henderson

Given how easily the Red Sea passage via Suez can be blocked, I agree that this could present a real threat to the alternative East to West shipping route.

Jan Adam King

As Britain gives the Chagos islands to Mauritius against their will in the name of woke virtue signalling ….

Thomas W.

Russia is in deep shit, but they are not giving up. I assume you are talking about Andrei Averyanov who showed up at the meeting on the 20th-21st Dec. with Colonel Michael Randrianirina, also to prove that he was not killed. Supposedly he did bring a small present of sixteen loitering drones and a hundred small arms. This is more a Political Optics present to restart business & negotiations. Of course the GRU are interested in monitoring the Indian Ocean. Colonel Michael Randrianirina seems to be still looking in different directions to get military support including France & China. The GRU-Randrianirina don’t seem to have a contract yet, but will not hurt to let them get settled first without a contract. Putin & Trump are teamed together so there will not be any problems from that direction. If China moves in, the GRU can stay anyway.

Alexander Yearsley

Very interesting and thanks for posting. Dont forget the gold….Wagner had a JV on gold in there and some other issues….always look at who now owns relevant media operations in various African states…radio and print are key to getting an anti Western and pro Kremline voice heard!

………….

𝗜 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿’𝘀 𝗘𝘃𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗹𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘃𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗱. 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗵𝗼𝘁𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗵 𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗮 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲 𝗳𝗹𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲, 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆, 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗜 𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗴𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗮 𝗼𝗳 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝗿𝗶𝘀.

This New Year’s period has been a concentration of Russian escalation:

• 𝗛𝘆𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗱 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗳𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲: An undersea communications cable between Finland and Estonia was damaged, now under investigation as sabotage of critical infrastructure.
• 𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗱𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝘂𝗽 𝗮𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲: Russia’s top general announced that Putin has ordered new “buffer zones” to be created by further invading Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv regions — framed as protecting Russian civilians.
• 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗳𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝘂𝗲: After claims that Ukrainian drones attacked one of Putin’s residences were widely exposed as fabricated, Russia rapidly pushed a new narrative alleging Ukrainian attacks killed civilians in the Russian-occupied part of Kherson oblast. Meanwhile, Russia continues daily strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets, including two ballistic missile strikes on a civilian building in Kharkiv today.
• 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: Russia deployed its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system to Belarus.
• 𝗗𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴: Russia used New Year’s Eve to reinforce the message that nowhere in Ukraine is safe, launching strikes across Ukraine as far west as Volyn.
• 𝗡𝗼 𝗽𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲, 𝗻𝗼 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲: In his New Year’s address, Putin reaffirmed his commitment to the war, telling Russia’s armed forces: “We believe in you and our victory.” This New Year’s Eve also marked the 26th anniversary of Putin coming to power, following Yeltsin’s resignation on 31 December 1999.

𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮 𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗮𝗿 – 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽’𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗸𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗮 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗺 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗺 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻.

Comment from :

Kai Robertson

Controversial Weapon
The use of flechettes as indiscriminate anti-personnel weapons has been highly controversial, and human rights groups have condemned their use in civilian areas. However, their use is not explicitly prohibited by international law or the Hague Convention. They have reportedly been used in recent conflicts, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine and by Israeli forces in Gaza.

Ian R. McAndrew

How were you in the Russian side and now not?

Elizabeth Bullock

Ian R. McAndrew PhD FRAeS : I am referring to liberated territory – what the Russians left behind after they withdrew following Ukrainian counter-offensives. Naturally as a Brit I do not go into areas that are under Russian occupation.

Jonathan Frost

The Golden Rule
In Russian moral and folk tradition, the Golden Rule appears in proverbs and sayings that stress empathy, reciprocity, and fairness. The most direct equivalents are:
“Don’t do to others what you don’t want done to you.”
(Russian: Не делай другим того, чего не хочешь себе.)
— A near-exact folk version of the Golden Rule.
“As you treat people, so they will treat you.”
(Russian: Как аукнется, так и откликнется.)
Literally: “As it echoes, so it responds.”
— A classic proverb expressing moral reciprocity.
“Don’t dig a pit for another — you’ll fall into it yourself.”
(Russian: Не рой другому яму — сам в неё попадёшь.)
— Warns against harming others; what you do returns to you.
“Put yourself in another’s shoes.”
(Russian: Поставь себя на место другого.)
— A moral appeal for empathy and understanding.

What went wrong?

Elizabeth Bullock

Jonathan Frost : As you say, if only these were being applied.