09.15.2023 

According to Ukrainian military intelligence, North Korea has been supplying shells to the occupying country of Russia for the past month and a half. In particular, we are talking about artillery shells and rockets for Grads. But the problem is that all of this is effectively old junk that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is happy to get rid of. Moreover, this rubbish can also be dangerous for the occupying army. After all, ammunition manufactured 50-70 years ago can explode right in the barrel of artillery installations. Another problem with this military aid to the enemy is that the logistics are too complex.

In the spring of 2024, the Russian occupation army may need 300-400 thousand new bayonets, therefore, a second wave of mobilization in the Russian Federation is virtually inevitable, despite the fact that Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin is trying to avoid it. However, unfortunately, Russia still has human resources. This opinion was expressed by military expert Mikhail Zhirokhov in an exclusive interview with OBOZREVATEL .

– Recently it became known that the American billionaire Elon Musk actually disrupted the operation to destroy the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which was carried out by the Ukrainian intelligence services in 2022. So far, another strange case has become known – it was during the attack of Ukrainian assets on enemy bases in Sevastopol on September 13 that Starlink communications disappeared again for 50 minutes. Do you admit that this was another attempt by Musk to protect a Russian military base? If so, how dangerous is it for Ukraine to have such an ally?

– First of all, it is not entirely clear whether Starlink was turned on at all in the occupied territories. Even at the beginning of the large-scale invasion, there was evidence that in the occupied territories of mainland Ukraine and Crimea, Starlink was not turned on at all. I remember the Russians presented some of their own evidence that they allegedly captured Starlink, wanted to use it, but it didn’t work. This is the first thing.

Secondly, Elon Musk is convinced that using Starlink for military purposes could lead to nuclear war. Thus, he supposedly saves the world. These are such leftist ideas – they say, there is no need to fight, we need to negotiate. Judging by some of his statements, Musk believes that if Starlink is not used for military purposes, the war will end sooner and fewer people will die.

In addition, I know that Russian diplomats also had conversations with him. The Russian Ambassador to the United States spoke with him separately behind closed doors. We don’t know the content of this conversation, but we can assume that the Russians found some vulnerabilities in Musk’s unique perception of the world and actively put pressure on it. Therefore, different options are possible. Both the Western media and Musk himself give different explanations that have a right to exist.

– Yes, but, as you know, the US Senate initiated a serious conversation with Musk. He was actually called “on the carpet” to give an explanation. After all, the Pentagon has a contract with Space X , therefore, the owner of Starlink cannot simply interfere in certain processes without the knowledge of the US Department of Defense.

– I personally view this as one of the elements of the election race, which has not formally begun yet. Now all congressmen use every opportunity to make themselves known. In addition, the question is that some of the Starlink devices were purchased with Pentagon money and transferred to Ukraine, and some were purchased by various volunteer funds, simply brought by volunteers. That is, it does not fall under the jurisdiction of the Pentagon.

So, here is the question of how those devices for which there is a contract with Elon Musk were used, and how others, private ones, were used. After all, some of the Starlink devices in our army are practically private. Therefore, the American defense department cannot influence them directly.

Under these conditions, Elon Musk, I think, made the simplest decision – he simply transferred control over the entire Starlink network in Ukraine and around to the hands of the American military in order to avoid any investigations that could lead, in particular, to the termination of the contract with the Pentagon. And we are talking about billions. These are quite large amounts, which are very important for Musk’s private company.

– According to the Main Intelligence Directorate, Russia is now transferring the 25th Army to the front in the Lugansk region. This is associated with large losses of the occupiers in manpower. What kind of army is this? How do you assess its combat effectiveness? How can the enemy solve the problem of lack of soldiers?

– So far, the Russians have no shortage of personnel. The transfer of certain units indicates that through active offensive actions, not only our reserves are being reduced, but also the reserves of the Russians, who are forced to transfer them to different sectors of the front.

As long as they have reserves. This is a personnel army, reinforced by mobilized ones. But already now Russian generals see that they do not have the reserves for the spring of 2024. That is why they insist that a second wave of mobilization begin in Russia. So far, Putin is fighting back from this, but the situation at the front indicates that, most likely, such a step will take place. All this plugging of holes with some personnel armies does not fundamentally solve the problems facing the Russian army.

– How much do they need for spring? 200-300 thousand?

– I cannot know the plans of the Russian General Staff, but it is obvious that about 300-400 thousand. This is an uplifting figure for Russia; the country is large. The only question will be the quality of this personnel. But the fact that they can find so many people is not a question for me.

It is also not entirely correct to say that they will be poorly armed, because Russian armored tank factories work in three shifts, as do small arms factories. The number of shells produced by the Russian Federation is already greater than those produced in Europe. Unfortunately, they still have potential with which they can continue to fight.

– Just about the shells. According to the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, General Budanov, North Korea has been supplying ammunition to Russia for the past month and a half. In particular, these are 122 and 152 mm caliber shells, rockets for the Grad MLRS and tank shells. So the ammo situation is probably not that great. Do you know how great the potential of the DPRK is in the context of military assistance to Russia? Perhaps it will only last for a month or two?

– Absolutely not. North Korea has not fought since 1953, but since that period it has been stockpiling shells and all ammunition. The North Korean-made ammunition that I saw photos of was produced in the 1960s and 70s.

That is, in this way North Korea is deprived of excess property, shells whose shelf life has expired. They hand them over to the Russians. Moreover, they are handing over certain types of shells to the Russians – 122, 152 mm. They have a reduced action, some have a long action, and some are simply high-explosive fragmentation. Russia only needs certain types of projectiles that they have already used during combat operations.

First of all, we are talking about long-range projectiles, that is, those that can hit targets at a great distance. With this they are trying to compensate for the lack of long-range weapons, because our 155-mm artillery fires further than the Russian one. Therefore, they use these extended range shells first, and they quickly run out.

Regarding tank shells from North Korea, I personally have not seen any photos or videos. There was a video of the Russians using North Korean shells in the Grad, but they were also not in the best condition. They were rusty, made in the 1950s.

I don’t know how much this will increase the combat effectiveness of the Russian army. Because such shells do not explode in one go or even pose a danger to their own crew – at any moment a shell can explode right in the barrel.

This problem is well known to the Ukrainian army, because in 2014 we began using shells from the 1960s and 70s. There were a very large number of cases when self-propelled artillery mounts and shells exploded right in the barrel.

Therefore, the strengthening of the Russian army at the expense of North Korea may indeed be possible – the DPRK has many such shells. But it’s hard to say how this will affect the front. Don’t forget about logistics too. After all, there are only two supply routes from North Korea to Russia: either transit, that is, the railway, which is already overcrowded with military trains, or transportation by military transport aircraft. But in this case, these shells will be golden.

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