Yuri Shutyak
Sept 15
💪 It’s official! In the course of assault, the Defense Forces took control of the village of Andriyvka in Donetsk region, – General Staff
Our heroes are causing significant losses in manpower and machinery, consolidating at the borders reached, The General Staff added.
Very positive news!
Yesterday, this page, which normally confines itself to factual reports on military activity, published a curious item. It’s an imperfect translation, like everything on FB, but it’s very interesting. It purports to come from “Oleg Sharp”, who does not seem to have a media presence. Comments were mixed. Some agreed, some thought he was a kind of Ukrainian Vanga (the Bulgarian woman believed to have Nostradamus-type powers).
Anyway here it is:
“When will the war end and will we be able to cross the 1991 borders?
I’ve talked to many politicians and military analysts about this. Based on their opinion, in general:
The hot phase of the war is likely to end with a frozen front in November-December 2024. No documents, except the international ceasefire document, will be signed. Likely, “peacekeepers” from India, China, Kazakhstan, Britain, Germany and Japan will be deployed on the line of conflict (these countries are currently being considered during sideline consultations). All sanctions against Russia will be preserved.
The Korean version for many years to come. But these years will play on Ukraine, which will quickly switch to weapons (including aviation) NATO and launch production of RSD. Russia has already shown its military maximum – except YAZ, but the likelihood of its application is extremely low.”
– Oleg Sharp
Thoughts?
Anyone know what YAZ refers to?
Original:
Коли закінчиться війна, і чи вдасться нам вийти на кордони 1991 року?
Я розмовляв з багатьма політиками та військовими аналітиками з цього приводу. Спираючись на їх думки, узагальню:
Скоріш за все, гаряча фаза війни закінчиться заморозкою фронту у листопаді-грудні 2024 року. Жодних документів, окрім міжнародного документу про припинення вогню, підписано не буде. Скоріш за все, на лінії бойового зіткнення буде дислоковано “миротворців” з Індії, Китаю, Казахстану, Британії, Німеччини та Японії (ці країни наразі розглядаються під час кулуарних консультацій). Всі санкції проти росії збережуться.
Корейський варіант на довгі роки. Але ці роки гратимуть на Україну, яка швидкими темпами переходитиме на озброєння (включаючи авіацію) НАТО та запустить виробництво РСД. Росія ж свій військовий максимум вже показала – хіба що ЯЗ, але ймовірність її застосування вкрай мала. – Олег Шарп
По термінам співпадає з моїми прогнозами оголошеними більше року тому🤷
I don’t think that we will see such an ending.
The time frame seems unfortunately to be quite likely, given the trickledown weapons policy, the GOP split on Ukraine funding and the pending election?
Romney sadly thinks that his pro-Ukraine faction is now in the minority.
The writer is perhaps purposely vague, but he seems to imply one of the better outcomes, ie return to legal borders, demilitarized zone, peacekeeping forces, continuation of sanctions.
Absence of course of reparations and war crimes prosecutions, which would have to wait until the collapse of the RF.
Do you visualize a more, or less positive outcome facts?
I do, Scradge. Although it will cost lots of blood, the Ukrainians are NOT willing to relent on any of their lands. Most in the West do not comprehend this level of determination. We have lived too long in a fluffy, pink, soft woke world to understand. This strong determination to be free alone will prevent anything else but to at least liberate the entire country of these creatures, if not, to completely destroy their military.
Another point is that the mafiosi have no viable concept to win this war. They acted stupidly a year and a half ago, and they are still acting stupid. This is true regardless of how many generals get fired and hired. Although the Ukrainians had made their own mistakes, they do learn quickly and adapt fast. Right now, they are concentrating not only on liberating land, but destroying the orc’s capabilities in logistics and their artillery systems. Without gun barrels available, even having 10,000,000 rounds won’t do you much good.
This, in a nutshell.
That’s what I said :
“return to legal borders, demilitarized zone, peacekeeping forces, continuation of sanctions. Absence of course of reparations and war crimes prosecutions, which would have to wait until the collapse of the RF.”
It’s everything except a formal peace deal (impossible under putler), reparations and war crimes prosecutions; which can’t happen until the end of putlerism.
Ukraine gets her legal borders, demilitarized zone and peacekeeping forces.
Conflict is frozen, but not to Putler’s advantage.
When I said that I don’t think that we will see such an ending, I meant the one described in the article. I guess I should’ve made that clear.
I chose to interpret the “line of conflict” as the legal borders of Ukraine. I think that’s what “Oleg” was saying.
But he leaves it open to a range of interpretations.
We both agree 100% that only the legal borders are acceptable.
Where I would compromise is on the question of reparations and prosecution for war crimes. There can be no possibility of waiving them, only deferring until the end of putlerism.
The solution I outlined is acceptable. No end to sanctions, no compromise, no ‘peace deal’, a demilitarized zone and permanent peacekeeping forces.
Ukraine will rebuild in comparative safety.
It’s a virtual mirror of the Korea solution.
I don’t see anything else being possible without a liberal revolution in Russia. Which at the moment seems about 1% likely.
Spot on! Can’t argue with that logic!
Only YAZ I found thus far is the ruzzian tanker, but that doesn’t seem to fit the narrative.