29.08.2023
The political component began to prevail in the rhetoric of the United States leadership about military assistance to Ukraine, because Washington is already preparing for the next presidential election. They talk about the continuation of the war in 2024 and announce the further strengthening of the Ukrainian army. But all the weapons and equipment provided to Ukraine are not enough to win this war. In particular, the Ukrainian army receives dozens of tanks and armored personnel carriers, while hundreds are needed to win.
When the deliveries are exactly like this, it can be seen as a certain sign: the West has finally agreed that the occupying country, Russia, must lose. So far, unfortunately, there is no such readiness. The Ukrainian military-industrial complex has many excellent developments, however, their implementation also requires insane financial injections, and, consequently, the consent of the West. However, there are also positive expectations. In particular, cluster munitions received by Ukraine have already changed the situation at the front. F-16 fighters will also significantly strengthen the positions of the Ukrainian defenders. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZREVATEL by military expert Mikhail Zhirokhov .
– Washington Post military columnist David Ignatius said that today the US administration is considering the possibility of continuing the war in Ukraine next year. Actually it is obvious that this year the war will not end. However, the expert also noted that Washington is working on the creation of Ukrainian “forces of the future.” So, we see that the West is preparing for a long war. Earlier, assessments were repeatedly voiced that the West is not ready to lose Russia in this war. Do you see such signs, in particular, based on recent assessments and statements? What kind of military assistance to Ukraine would clearly show that the moment has come when the West began to do everything for Ukraine to win?
– Obviously, with the upcoming elections in the United States, the war in Ukraine is taking on a political dimension. Therefore, now not military, but political factors will act to a greater extent. Biden will be forced to take into account the domestic policy of the United States more than foreign.
The weapons they are announcing as military aid now – cluster munitions, F-16 fighter jets – are obviously badly needed. After all, we have a huge problem in that we are losing demographically to Russia. No one will fight for us, and the losses of personnel that we are now suffering are critical in such an offensive. Recovery takes time. Yes, there is a mobilization resource, but it is impossible for him to immediately enter the battle.
So far, all these weapons, which are provided in small batches, have very little effect on the course of hostilities. If tanks, armored personnel carriers, etc. will be provided to us not in tens, but in hundreds, then it will be possible to say that the West has completely switched to tactics so that we defeat Russia. So far this is not.
For example, we are receiving 30 American Abrams tanks and 80 Leopard tanks. This is not the amount that affects the density and course of hostilities.
– Nevertheless, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is developing. We see what a big step he has taken, in particular, in terms of the production of drones, UAVs. Can we expect that even with such a level of Western support, we will still be able to cope with the task of completely liberating the occupied territories in a certain time?
– You see, the development of the military-industrial complex means money, money and more money. Therefore, we can say whatever we want, that we can build 5-10-20-30 drones, but the fact that we are financially dependent on Western allies is obvious.
Therefore, the development of the defense industry of Ukraine will depend only on how much our country will have financial support. It is obvious that we do not have our own funds. In particular, due to the fact that the production of steel and agricultural products has fallen very much. The loss of Mariupol, the termination of the grain deal, etc.
There are developments, we are supplying some shells, but now this is not enough. Without financial injections, we will not be able to do this in 3 or 5 years. Because huge financial resources are needed.
– A question about the Crimea. We saw a demonstrative special operation – the landing of Ukrainian troops in Crimea on Independence Day. It is clear that this is primarily a propaganda action. Nevertheless, we see that there is no peace for the occupier on the peninsula. Despite the fact that a Ukrainian soldier is far from setting foot on Crimean soil, some enemy military facility is blown up in Crimea almost every day. According to your estimates, when the Ukrainian army reaches the Crimean Isthmus or when it reaches the Sea of Azov, will we have a real opportunity to liberate the peninsula? If Crimea is liberated, can we talk about a real turning point in the war?
– Even the president is no longer talking about the military liberation of Crimea. In an evening address on August 27, he said: we will go to the administrative borders of Crimea and then the Russians will run on their own. One can understand that a certain non-military path is being considered.
But this is a big misconception. Because, in my opinion, the Russians will hold on to Crimea to the last, despite the fact that it will be economically unprofitable, unprofitable from a military point of view. But from the point of view of internal stability in the Russian Federation, they need Crimea.
It is too early to say that we will be able to reach the administrative borders of Crimea. We see how hard the offensive is going. Of course, in the near future there may be shifts in our direction. So far, we can talk about Tokmak, about Berdyansk. Of course, access to the coast of the Sea of Azov will allow inflicting fire damage throughout the territory of Crimea. Actually, we have such an opportunity even now, because we have both the British Storm Shadow and the French Scalp.
But there is and will be a very difficult situation with Crimea. Therefore, I personally would not talk about a purely military version of the liberation of Crimea. There are many different factors that will influence this.
– President Zelensky announced a “powerful September”. According to him, Ukraine expects new packages of military assistance, additional security guarantees. Also, our state will take part in a number of important international events. Do you think that in the next month or two, something quite significant can happen at the front?
– Yes, it can be. But to say that on September 1 we will be given tanks, and on September 3 they will go on the offensive is too optimistic. Because it is necessary to form new brigades, we need people who will pass the military agreement. Even if tanks arrive on September 1, they certainly cannot be used at the front in the coming months.
If our president is confident that Ukraine will receive some kind of powerful support in the form of, for example, the same ammunition, then, of course, it will also affect the front. Yes, the provision of cluster munitions for artillery has changed the nature of combat. It may be that we have either been promised or are already being given cluster munitions for HIMARS. Then yes, they can be used right now. But with armored vehicles and aircraft, the situation is different – it cannot be used immediately.
Therefore, only an increase in ammunition can quickly change the situation and if it is better than the previous ones. Because it is obvious that it takes time to prepare people for new equipment.
Even being eighteen months into a terrible war, we have yet to see a strong Western approach to deal with it. There is no firm concept, no plan, no idea on how to end it quickly and with a decisive victory, despite the vast power and resources available to us. Not even our silly sanctions are having the desired effect.
We see the very same dithering, the very same cowardice, the very same ball-and-chain firmly clamped on Ukraine’s ankle and one hand tied behind its back. We stand before the world as weak, insignificant pussies, where wokeness plays a greater role than defeating a dark evilness, and where pro-mafia sentiments are running rampant, even from certain presidential candidates of the United States. And, no one can earnestly and positively say why things are the way they are.
No one will put troops on the ground, planes in the air or ships in the Black Sea.
Gen Zaluzhnyi requested 400 modern MBT’s; a very modest amount. He got about 100, including 28 Challenger 2’s and an unspecified number of Leopards. About 30 Abrams are on the way.
He requested F16’s. He got zero,
He requested ATACMS. He got zero.
He requested 100 HIMAR systems. He got less than half that number.
He requested modern attack helis. He got zero.
He requested attack drones like Grey Eagles or Reaper. He got zero.
He got some decent modern artillery, but nowhere near enough. In the interminable battle for Bakhmut, his defenders were using old Soviet artillery.
The putinoid scum who owns starlink tried to block its use over Crimea and so on….
Joe has kept Ukraine in the game; he can be thanked for that. But there is no clear strategy to end the nightmare.
Still Ukraine is insufficiently provided for with air defence from the monsters.
Still no one will declare that putler is running a vile nazi genocide machine.
Still no one is doing anything to get the kidnapped children back to Ukraine.
I dread to think what is being done to them by the subhumans. It’s probably worse than my nightmares.
Give Ukraine an independent nuclear deterrent, for a start.
Having such a pack of pansies in our capital cities is downright scary.