Nonresident fellow hos Centre of Defence
If RUS is not stopped now, if RUS is satisfied with the results of its aggression, then it will not stop in UKR. And it will not stop in this part of Europe. At some point, EU and NATO will also be directly threatened by RUS aggression, Dutch DefMin says.
UKR has made further tactically significant gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast. UKR forces believe they have broken through the most difficult defence lines and will now be able to advance more quickly.
RUS has reportedly laterally redeployed elements of a relatively elite formation from Luhansk to western Zaporizhia Oblast.
RUS to resume offensive in east UKR after regrouping. After fierce fighting and significant losses in the Kupiansk and Lyman directions, it is regrouping and simultaneously throwing newly formed brigades into the battle.
RUS is considering option of mobilizing additional 450,000 people.
RUS MoD is reportedly prosecuting junior officers and soldiers that complain about senior commanders’ inattention to frontline issues.
It’s impossible to return Crimea without military operations. It will be very hard as 30% of the terrain is mountainous. This does not mean that it is impossible to liberate Crimea.
ME: Yes, the sanctions against RUS are working, Josep Borrell, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, argues.
“Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, the EU has imposed 11 rounds of ever-tighter sanctions against RUS. Some people claim these sanctions have not worked. This is simply not true. Within a year, they have already limited Moscow’s options considerably causing financial strain, cutting the country from key markets and significantly degrading RUS industrial and technological capacity. To stop the war, we need to stay the course.”
He is right: The sanctions are working. Borrell does, however, not say to what degree they are working.
The EU sanctions were never meant to stop the war. They are designed to reduce the Kremlin’s ability to finance the war, impose clear economic and political costs on Russia’s political elite and diminish Russia’s economic base. But not stop Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.
That is why the last part of the statement is highly misleading. Staying the course will not stop the war. The report explains why.
The potential Russian gains far outweigh the short-term, temporary costs of Western sanctions. This is why the West will continue to fail in its effort to end the war.
Russia will continue to wage war until confronted by military means on equal footing. Russia is fighting Ukraine in the physical space and the West in the cognitive space while avoiding Western-imposed sanctions with support from its international partners.
Sanctions will only work when employed in combination with military power.
The report elaborates.
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