The situation in Russia is developing in a favorable direction for Belarusians.
What does the death of the Wagner PMC boss Yevgeny Prigozhin mean for Lukashenka? Will the “crime boss of all Russia” forgive the Belarusian dictator for betrayal? The Charter97.org website talked about this with the coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign Dzmitry Bandarenka.
How does Prigozhin’s death affect the situation in Russia?
— If you draw historical parallels, I heard such a version that the murder of Prigozhin resembles the liquidation of the head of the assault detachments of Nazi Germany, Ernst Röhm. However, at that moment, Hitler was just coming to power, he was energetic and powerful. If we draw parallels with Hitler’s Germany, Prigozhin’s assassination is reminiscent of the aftermath of the mutiny in which German generals took part at the end of the war in 1944, when Hitler miraculously survived.
Putin’s state of health today resembles that of Hitler during that period.
It can be said that Russia today is ruled by a collective Putin. Most likely, Vladimir Vladimirovich has long been unable to fully perform leadership functions. The fact is the use of doppelgangers. Just the same, Lukashenka and Prigozhin, who often met with Putin, were well aware of the real state of affairs. That is why there was a rebellion. Here, Putin has no chance to hold power for a long time, he can only react to what is happening.
The very death of Prigozhin accelerates the processes of the collapse of the Putin regime.
— At the beginning of the rebellion, you put forward the version that Lukashenka participated in a conspiracy on the side of Prigozhin. Do the behavior and words of the Belarusian dictator after the death of the Wagner boss confirm your version?
Let me remind you in a nutshell. Both Prigozhin and Lukashenka counted that at that particular moment Putin was very weak, they counted on the support of the military. The recent resignation of General Sergei Surovikin testifies to this. As well as Lukashenka’s statement that he was ready to transfer a special forces brigade to Moscow. After all, he did not want to do this to protect Moscow, but to participate in the rebellion on the side of the putschists.
However, something went wrong, most of the military at that time did not support Prigozhin’s rebellion, Lukashenka had to do everything to act as an alleged negotiator and hide the head of Wagner on his territory. Putin eventually cracked down on Prigozhin. Now, two months later, Putin and his clan — Shoigu, Patrushev — know perfectly well who participated in the rebellion.
Naturally, Lukashenka is frightened, because the “crime boss of all Russia” cannot forgive betrayal. Only Prigozhin is easier to replace, and in the situation that Russia turned out to be, it is more difficult to replace Lukashenka. However, I am sure that the Kremlin will definitely deal with him, and he understands this well.
— Is Lukashenka’s fate sealed?
— All this turmoil destabilizes our enemies, but it is important for us that Belarus becomes democratic. Yes, Lukashenka’s fate is sealed, but what situation will Belarus find itself in? It will depend only on the Belarusians themselves, on those people who call themselves leaders. We must be prepared for the fact that the situation in the region will change so much that we will need to return to Belarus, and people inside the country will be very active, because the main thing for all of us is the fate of our Homeland. In the meantime, events are developing in a very favorable direction for us.