Reflections on the latest US intel report on Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

By Lemuel Chyme, Palookaville Free Press

Aug 20, 2023

It can be seen here:

U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal:

Brian Whitmore’s latest podcast was recorded in the aftermath of the “authorized leak” of the U.S. intel assessment of the counteroffensive, which concluded that the defenders won’t reach Melitopol this year and consequently will fail to split the invader army in two, which was the original plan.

Prof Whitmore and guest Michael Kofman conclude that the leak was essentially an ass-covering exercise.

The podcast is available here:

Recall Blinken stating in the spring that “Ukraine has everything it needs for the counteroffensive.”

Sure. Everything except the 400 modern MBT’s, 1000 ATACMS, 40 F16’s etc that were requested by Gen. Zaluzhnyi.

The counteroffensive will be forced to culminate sometime in October. No one knows what land or how much land Ukraine will have clawed back by then, at what cost in terms of valuable manpower and at what cost in terms of support from the allies. Weather conditions will force a pause or a slowdown at the very least.

Putin is happy to continue his genocide until next year’s pivotal election and hope for a result in his favour.

He won’t even care about Ukraine battering his orcs into the dirt; plenty more where they came from. He will just continue with the main plan; genocide, mass destruction of infrastructure and more extreme emotional pain for Ukrainians. His regime is so evil and monstrous that it seems to feed off Ukraine’s agony.

Only a crashed economy, ie starving vatniks, miles long bread queues and mass rioting might change his calculus.

That and/or orc losses at 8-1 in Ukraine’s favour. (At the moment they favour Ukraine, but not even 2-1).

The best Ukraine can hope for at the end of this year’s counteroffensive is a steady flow of decisive weapons throughout the winter and modern jets in time for next year’s counteroffensive.

Even more vital: the monsters intend to attack the energy infrastructure again; probably even more so, as well as apartment complexes, schools etc.

Therefore, before the heating season commences, there needs to be installed many, many more air defence systems, including Patriots.

Remember also the confident claim from Blinken/Biden that “after the counteroffensive, negotiations will be able to begin.”

That was always going to be complete nonsense. Putin will never negotiate with Ukraine. Ain’t gonna happen. His successor or successors might.

Neither Brian Whitmore or any of his guests in the entire history of the show have ever suggested the possibility of putting US troops on the ground. I wonder why?

Mark Galeotti in his latest podcast floats a very, very unpleasant scenario for late next year :

Trump is about to enter the WH, Ukraine has suffered another year of devastation, its troops are worn out and Zel is under enormous pressure to “do a deal” with Putin, ie a surrender of land to preserve what’s left of Ukraine.

It could happen! Through no fault of Ukraine.

What can the current Biden administration do right now to prevent that?

Ans: send ATACMS; in huge numbers, so that Ukraine can pound the occupiers right through the winter, take a breather, mobilise another 100,000 combat troops and build up an enormous arsenal for next year’s counteroffensive, including several squadrons of F16’s.

This winter Ukraine will need a massive mobilization; including from the diaspora.

Let’s assume a minimum of 100,000 new combat troops are needed to counter the gargantuan threat of the putinaZis. That can’t be far off the mark.

Also, the allies should consider the funding of high quality mercs for Ukraine. To be going on with, Peshmerga troops might be a pretty good option.

How did we get to where we are now?

Putin’s first war was the second Chechnya war, which began in 1999 with FSB-planted apartment complex bombings in Moscow oblast, which were then used as the pretext for a second huge, genocidal attack on Chechnya. One third of the entire population was wiped out, the city of Grozny was leveled and a puppet ruler was installed.

This was the business model for Ukraine 2022. If Ukraine had not resisted, Ukraine would be ruled by Yanukovich, Medvedchuk and overseen by Putin. Many cities would have been leveled and one third of Ukrainians murdered.

Chechnya was a repeat of the Serbian genocide in Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo. Bill Clinton saw fit to intervene.

Why is it that Slobodan Milosevic was not permitted to get away with genocide, but Putin was?

The answer is of course nukes and the threat to use them. Putin has paralyzed the west with that threat ever since Chechnya.

He got clean away with genocide in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and now Ukraine, which now at long last must be determined by the allies to mark the end of his reign of terror.

One comment

  1. I’m going with Sir OFP assessment that the US intell is garbage (my words) these days. I’m looking forward to the day Ukraine can stick the US intell down their throats.

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