Aug 18
I cannot believe this assessment. If the U.S. had supplied ATACMS to Ukraine, even as few as 20-40, they could have taken out the Kerch Strait Bridge in a timely manner so that the land bridge wouldn’t have had nearly the number of mines and trenches built. If the Kerch Strait Bridge had been taken out at the beginning of the year, less mines, weapons, ammunitions, and supplies would have made their way into Crimea and north and onto the landbridge.
It seems obvious that Russia cares most about Crimea, if they lose Crimea and access to Crimea, the land bridge becomes infinitely less valuable territory. Then Putin has to question why he would continue to fight the war. Ukraine must win and retake Crimea. Give them ATACMS.
Quote:”U.S. officials reject criticisms that F-16 fighter jets or longer-range missile systems such as ATACMS would have resulted in a different outcome. “The problem remains piercing Russia’s main defensive line, and there’s no evidence these systems would’ve been a panacea,” a senior administration official said.
In an interview this week, Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the United States has been clear about the difficult task facing Ukraine.”
U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal
Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won’t reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment
By John Hudson and Alex Horton
August 17, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. EDT
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
Mr Bartram commented on his own post :
Ukraine needs 20-40 ATACMS to take out the Kerch Strait Bridge ( Road and Rail). They need to launch 6 to 8 ATACMS at the same time, then repeat later the same day or the next day, repeat until it cannot be repaired. Aim 2 at each end (road and rail) and 4 in the middle (road and rail). Noting that the middle bridge strikes cannot be fixed until both ends are repaired. If strikes continue more often, repair will be deterred.
Ukraine used two S-200s on the last strike on the Bridge, they need more missile strikes at the same time, coordinated across the front. Russia is resupplying mines, weapons, ammunitions, food, drones etc. over these bridges. They must be shut down for Ukraine to be able to retake Crimea. These strikes will save Ukrainian lives.
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Deliberately withholding weapons has enabled the orcs to plant millions of mines. Now the same people that denied Ukraine ATACM’s are saying the offense is going too slow.
“The problem remains piercing Russia’s main defensive line, and there’s no evidence these systems would’ve been a panacea,”
That’s a pathetic strawman argument. Nobody claimed that F-16s would be the one decisive weapon, the magic trick that decides the war. It’s simply that Ukraine can’t successfully apply the Nato doctrine of combined arms as long as its air force ain’t up to the task. It takes modern western jets, with long range radar and a vast assortment of available weapons, to fill that void. Everybody who really wants Unraine to win should be aware of that and support speedy training and delivery of the jets. The Biden administration and the Pentagon, with their myriad of lame excuses for delays and denials, don’t seem to share that goal. Still trying to get an appeasement deal with Putin?