The Russian army is running out of reserves.
The Russian army has started to have serious problems caused by the exhaustion of reserves. Now they are moving units between different parts of the front line, which is very bad news for them. This was stated by former US army officer, military expert and author of the book “How to Fight a War” Mike Martin.
On his page in the social network Twitter, he published an analysis of the current situation on the front line, noting the good news for Ukraine.
“Time for another brief update as to what has happened in the last two weeks in Ukraine. This image is taken a few months ago, but the basic strategy hasn’t changed. That’s the sign of a good strategy – when it doesn’t change every 10 minutes and when resources are lined up for the things you hope to achieve.
Consider Russia (which has plans that change all the time). Here’s the last topic, which is an overview of the counter-offensive – the Ukrainians have momentum at this point.
So what is the Ukrainian strategy? It’s actually very simple. All those blue arrows are the axes of the Ukrainian attacks. The goal is to keep the Russians scattered and unable to reinforce. And it’s working. The Russians seem to have run out of reserves and are now moving units between different parts of the front line. This is very bad news for them,” he stated.
Secondly, this strategy means that the Ukrainians can keep a balance between the different axes, and they can choose which one they want to advance along when it becomes obvious which one is advantageous. The key axes are the two middle fronts going south to the Sea of Azov – as we know, this allows the Ukrainians to cut Russian forces in two – a major strategic victory.
Other fronts are very useful as they constrain the Russians. For example, in Bakhmut – the Russians are not going to withdraw from Bakhmut after they lost tens of thousands of soldiers there and told everyone that it’s extremely important.
And now – in the last week, the Ukrainians have established another bridgehead on the Dnipro River near Kherson. So now there are two bridgeheads opposite Kherson: near Oleshki and near Kozachi Laheri. Now these bridgeheads are important for the obvious reason (they give the Russians more to think about, and they give the Ukrainians more opportunities).
Yet they also told us something about the Russians: they are losing the ability to deliver counter-battery fire to the Ukrainians. Basically, when the first bridgehead was established, it came under continuous fire from Russian artillery. Gradually, the Ukrainians destroyed that artillery – and Russian artillery right along the front (Russian artillery has been destroyed twice as fast in the last couple of months).
It’s very difficult for the Russians to conduct effective artillery fire, which in combination with the lack of reserves doesn’t look good. This is what the Ukrainians have been striving for, and it makes me think that in the next month or so, things will start moving again,” he emphasised.