Tecla Sqillaci

Aug 16

🔴All in all , the Russian defense is fragile.
Russia appears to have abandoned its classic general strategy of layered defenses during the fighting in the Zaporizja region. According to ” Ukraine Matters” , they have deployed all their reserves in the Zaporizja region on the royal fronts. In addition, they sent some paratrooper units (VDV) from the Kherson region to reinforce their lines at the current hotspots of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
So instead of layered defenses they go “all-in” to stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive, rather than a slow and elastic defense war, trading land for better weather and positions. They don’t want to lose a meter of land and this is because they are aware that the territories lost today will hardly be recovered tomorrow.
War of attrition always takes a high toll of death on Russian troops, as well as supplies and morale. And also, having no reserves means they are unable to counter any surprise attacks, such as from the Kherson region.
Ukraine will not send large forces until it expands its gains on the southern shore of the Dnipro River, as high concentrations are at risk from Russian artillery. But when the controlled area expands, which is very likely, as well as a third bridgehead in the Kherson region, the situation will improve to bring a significant amount of Ukrainian troops into southern Kherson.
That’s a disaster looming for the Russian defense in the coming weeks. When this dynamic continues, their entire southern front could suffer a disastrous collapse in the coming months, before autumn.

Comment from Glenn Ashton:

The sooner the southern front collapses the sooner this criminal war of spite and vanity launched with not a crumb of justification will end with a complete and crushing victory for Ukraine
Russia must be totally humiliated and punishment must be harsh.

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From the same FB page: John Chacos:

The head of NATO statement that Ukraine must give up territory to Russia as a requirement to joining NATO is a betrayal.
Ukraine has suffered immense loss of life and materials. Russian initiated an unprovoked and illegal war against Ukraine. They have committed crimes against humanity and other war crimes. Ukrainians are fighting for their lives and freedoms. The NATO secretary needs to go.

Reply from Jeremy Taylor:

What are they saying must be given up? Crimea or all the territory Russia currently holds? As an American, im in no position to say what Ukraine should do. The biggest concern with ceding territory to stop the war now means Russia rebuilds for a few years and comes again. Unless Ukraine joins Nato, then Russia won’t attack again. I could see the temptation to cede some territory if it meant being in Nato and safe permanently. But I also understand that ceding an inch of territory to Russia after everything Ukraine has been through would be unacceptable to Ukraine. Ukraine has to do what they think is right and Nato should respect the decision. The big issue is that Nato won’t accept a country in a current war. So the war would have to be stopped to join Nato now meaning going to the negotiation table with Russia and getting a raw deal or just giving Russia what they currently hold and join Nato. Otherwise I’d say Ukraine would have to continue the war until they either gain all their territory back or have had enough and then join Nato. Either decision should be respected.