Yuri Kobzar14:06, 18.05.23
Washington is preparing for a scenario in which Ukraine will not be able to expel the invaders from its territory.
The US authorities admit the possibility that the Russian-Ukrainian war will turn into a frozen conflict for decades, following the example of the situation with the divided Korea. The American publication Politico writes about this following conversations with sources in Washington.
Preliminary discussions have already been held at the White House and other US authorities on possible configurations of the line of demarcation, which Ukraine and Russia would agree not to cross, but which should not be official borders.
“This is the scenario that may turn out to be the most realistic in the long term, given that neither Kiev nor Moscow is inclined to ever admit defeat. It is also becoming increasingly likely amid a growing sense in the administration that the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive will not inflict Russia fatal blow,” writes Politico.
It is noted that a frozen conflict could be a politically acceptable long-term outcome for the United States and other partner countries of Ukraine, as it will reduce the cost of supporting Kyiv. In return, Ukraine can be offered long-term security ties with the US and NATO.
“There’s a school of thought that says, ‘Oh, Ukrainians should have [the city] of Mariupol and access to the Sea of Azov.’ conversations in US government circles.
The publication notes that while such discussions remain in the early stages, and US officials expect that the war will remain in a heated stage for quite some time. Accordingly, for now, the Biden administration intends to continue to provide Ukraine with the necessary weapons and support.
One of the interlocutors of the publication stressed that it is typical for Washington in general to plan several scenarios for the development of the situation in parallel at once.
Some U.S. officials and analysts say that one of the rough models could be the Korean War. Active hostilities in this conflict ended with a truce in 1953, but even after 70 years the war is not officially declared over.
Prospects for the end of the war in Ukraine
The leadership of Ukraine, including President Zelensky, has personally noted many times that the war can only end if all Ukrainian territories are completely liberated. Recently, this position has already been openly agreed in the West, for example, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz .
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger , who is considered to be a genius of geopolitical analysis, believes that real peace talks between Ukraine and Russia will begin this year.
(C)UNIAN 2023
Trumps ideas become populair: Give the occupied lands to Russia, deal.
But that’s what is being considered by the biden administration. I agree with you that any occupied territory on the russian side of a “demarcation line,” will become a puppet territory of the kremlin, and Ukraine shouldn’t have to give up its sovereign lands. The only “surrender” putin would ever concede, is a bullet through his mushy little brain, to burn his body, and let dogs shit in his ashes year after year.
But biden’s “team” is the one bringing this up with the current situation of an active invasion. I seriously thought Trump was following a foreign policy inspired by Theodore Roosevelt’s, “speak softly while carrying a big stick.”
But then Trump’s meeting with putin before, had disappointed me. But biden’s in charge now, and it’s much worse. Maybe Trump would actually use the big stick if he got the chance, but I don’t have high hopes.
I don’t think he was ever speaking softly.
He was pretty vocal against Ukraine.
There’s such so much crap being put out by media it’s tough to figure out what’s true what’s false or more to the point quoting from an anonymous government employee who has an opinion. Is someone thinking about a frozen war? Sure, they’d be stupid if they weren’t thinking of all possibilities. They’re also trying to figure out how to commit $60 billion to Ukraine in 2024. There’s allot of stuff out there. Should a journalist put out a story based on one individuals opinion, no but that’s the world we live in.
At this point in my life and having relied on the lame street media for too long in my life and now understanding the old adage “opinions are like assholes, everyone has one” especially so called journalists, I’ll take this report with a grain of salt until I see confirming report.
Anyway the US has been so wrong on every element of this war, why would I believe them?
I agree with you, sir Cap. This news must be taken with a pound of salt.
You’re being pretty cheap on the salt. I’d say a few million tons.
I guess I should relocate to Salt Lake City.😉
Extracted from an article on April 27, 2023:
“the allies must change direction urgently and provide Ukraine with what she needs to surgically remove the cancer of Russian occupation from all Ukraine forever. The “shopping list” of munitions required is already well-known, so no need to repeat it here.
After that, the Korea scenario must be activated: a demilitarized zone covering the borders of Ukraine-Belarus and Ukraine-Russia, with Budapest signatories forces permanently in situ. This must be the 1991 borders, not some “land for peace” abomination favoured by Kissinger, the Sanders bloc of the Dems and the two current leading contenders for the GOP in 2024.
The “Korea solution” is likely to be the only way forward for Ukraine. Even after total victory, the Ukrainians will still have a savage and evil neighbour that wants to murder them all.
SK has 28,500 US troops permanently stationed there. Ukraine must have proportionally the same, plus an independent nuclear deterrent.
South Korea’s current wavering attitude to Ukraine is is extremely regrettable. They rely on the US for security, yet they won’t help Ukraine, which does not enjoy that luxury.
If the SK’s want to keep this rotten attitude but not lose total credibility, they can send $10 Bn in cash aid. They can easily afford it.
The above arrangement can stay in place until or unless Russia has finally and irrevocably given up fascist imperialism, paid reparations to Ukraine, withdrawn from all occupied territories and sent all its war criminals to The Hague.
How is the Nato agreement; “an attack on one is an attack on all” different from the agreement in the Budapest Memorandum?”
Full article:
https://ukrainetoday.org/2023/04/27/the-korea-model-as-an-outcome-for-ukraine-2/
I think it’s because they’re so small as a country, while fending off both the north AND china, that South Korea can’t send any material support. I don’t know exactly how well their economy is, for what they can do in financial support, but I expect it’s less than what the United States has sent, and for all biden’s bluster about his insubstantial “help,” that means South Korea has very little to offer. Maybe they should send some of their military strategists to Ukraine, since the situation seems to be developing into the same situation as Korea’s. Though Seoul has one extremely aggressive neighbor and another that’s only slightly less aggressive than Pyongyang.
The South Koreans can’t do much because of their military situation.
I don’t think this is a common idea in the administration, given they have allocated 60 billion dollars for the next fiscal year, almost twice what they gave this year.
You don’t give 60 billion to just hold the lines.
Furthermore, if true the idea is extremely flawed, as I think Russia’s resilience is overestimated.
Money is running out, equipment runs out and cannot be produced again.
Also, Ukraine will not accept giving up territories, as this will allow Russia to block Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and also will prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO, because NATO doesn’t want to defend a country that has Russian bases on its terrority, ready to turn up the heat at any moment.
So there will not he a peace deal, sanctions will remain and Russia will economically collapse if not just military.
As long as military aid keeps flowing to Ukraine, they will win and take back Donbas and Crimea, I have no doubt about it.
I gotta go and buy some more salt…
Much, much more.