By Shaun Topham. (Ex RN). From his LinkedIn page.
My parents told me how they celebrated VE day joyously in 1945. My father was still serving in the RAF and my mother had endured the heavy bombing of her city, Portsmouth, by the Nazi Luftwaffe.
I have been thinking about that a lot as I sense the Ukrainian victory over russia coming ever closer. I have started to plan my own celebrations, in the UK and later in Ukraine.
It has become increasingly clear that the writing is on the wall for the malevolent invaders. I can clearly see the light at the end of the tunnel. A gloriously bright day lies ahead.
The modern MBT’s are ready and manned by skilled and intelligent Tankers, thousands of freshly trained Ukrainian troops are moving East and Ukraine’s allies are continuing to stand resolutely with Ukraine.
Ukraine has now received just over 90% of the artillery promised by her allies. Perhaps F-16’s or Gripen will be the icing on the cake. Meanwhile, the russians are divided, demoralised and running out of key components. Their logistical infrastructure is being depleted, as in SevastopolI yesterday. I expect the trickle of them that are surrendering, to turn into a steady flow.
Whilst I do not know how many months it will take, I do know that once the tide of war moves from a russian retreat to a full on rout, things can accelerate very fast. The phrase ‘house of cards’ will be very appropriate. I am not a gambling man, but my money would be on a Ukrainian victory in the next 3 to 4 months.
Yes, things could go very fast, like in the Kharkiv region last fall.
Kharkiv was never fortified by the invaders. Also the invaders could not rely on much reinforcements since most of their troops were ammassed in the south, not near Belgorod. It will become very difficult for UA Forces to break through enemy lines, in particular because the invaders have four times more men in the field. Yet i hope US military assistance can help Ukraine solve this. I hope high-ranked US military experts are present all the time.
The AFU was also never equipped as much with Western weapons during the Kharkiv campaign. I agree with what you’re saying, Mike, but I’m sure that the AFU general staff have taken the fortifications into their offensive calculations.