Yuri Kobzar11:55, 27.04.23
The Kremlin is trying to recruit soldiers and not provoke a riot, but in the end it destroys the economy of the Russian Federation in any case.
Out of fear of causing popular discontent, the Kremlin decided to abandon the new wave of mobilization , replacing it with the recruitment of more than 400,000 volunteers for the war in Ukraine. However, government officials are concerned that this will exacerbate the shortage of workers in the Russian civilian economy.
The Washington Post writes about this based on Pentagon materials that hit the Web after a recent large-scale leak.
Western intelligence estimates that Russia launched an invasion in February 2022 with about 150,000 troops. More than 300,000 were called up in “partial mobilization” last fall, and another 50,000 are believed to be fighting in Ukraine as part of the Wagner mercenary group, including convicts recruited from prisons. Also, an unknown number of men were forcibly drafted into the “LDNR” units to participate in hostilities on the side of the aggressor.
According to the leaked Penyagon documents, the US estimates that Russia lost from 189,500 to 223,000 people, of which up to 43,000 were killed. conservative estimates suggest that about half of the approximately 500,000 troops deployed or called up in the past 15 months are still in service. However, Russia has not made any significant territorial gains since last summer, forcing the Kremlin to increase its troop levels.
However, the new mobilization could alienate the Russian public and further destabilize the country’s economy, which is already under pressure from Western sanctions. Partial mobilization last fall caused a mass exodus of combat-age men from the country, reducing both the workforce in the economy and potential recruits.
To shield Putin from backlash against the recruitment of soldiers, the current plans involve the involvement of regional governors, who are entrusted with the task of organizing recruiting campaigns.
“The apparent political reluctance to order further mobilization to replace Russian military losses in Ukraine is leading senior officials to consider less centralized strategies to deal with the shortage of personnel,” the Pentagon document of February 17 said.READ ALSO:
Since then, the Russian government has indeed launched a large-scale decentralized recruitment effort, which includes advertising for contract service in the army on television, targeted advertising on the Internet, and campaign posts on city streets.
Also, they are probably going to replenish the combat units at the expense of conscripts, who are being agitated to sign contracts with the RF Ministry of Defense.
“Conscripts who decide to sign long-term military contracts will be taken into account when achieving Shoigu’s goals,” the newspaper writes.
According to the Pentagon, Russia’s immediate goal appears to be to recruit 415,000 contract soldiers, of which 300,000 will become reserves and 115,000 will be used to form new units and replenish understaffed units in Ukraine.
However, the same documents say that the plan was opposed by some Russian economic officials, who were concerned about the possible consequences for the civilian economy.
Russia is facing its worst labor shortage in 20 years due to the war in Ukraine, as businesses struggle to find skilled workers, according to Russian Central Bank warnings and an analysis released this week by the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, a major economic think tank. . in Russia.
Russian losses in Ukraine
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the total losses of the Russian army in Ukraine have already amounted to almost 189 thousand people. In the last 24 hours alone, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed more than 500 Russian occupiers. The losses in equipment are also impressive – almost 3700 tanks alone.
Even with tough sanctions, Russia will be able to fund its current spending for at least another year , according to US intelligence . However, this estimate is probably not complete and does not take into account the long-term losses from oil sanctions.
(C)UNIAN 2023