23 APRIL 2023
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has stated that Ukrainian forces took up positions on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
Source: ISW report
Details: Analysts at the ISW have said that Russian “military journalists” provided enough geographically referenced video footage and text messages to confirm that Ukrainian forces had taken up positions on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast.
Quote: “Geolocated footage published by a Russian milblogger on April 22 shows that Ukrainian forces have established positions on the Dnipro River bank north of Oleshky (7km southwest of Kherson) and advanced up to the northern outskirts of the settlement on the E97 highway, as well as west of Dachi (10km south of Kherson).
This footage also indicates that Russian forces may not control islands in the Kinka and Chaika rivers less than half a kilometer north of the geolocated Ukrainian positions near the Antonivka Bridge.”
More details: ISW has noted that on 20 and 22 April, Russian “military journalists” claimed that Ukrainian forces had been holding positions on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast for several weeks, had established stable supply lines to these positions and were regularly carrying out combat tasks, indicating that there was no Russian control over the area.
ISW has noted that a battle map by another Russian blogger claimed that Russian forces do not control some islands in the Dnipro Delta southwest of Kherson, suggesting that Ukrainian forces may be advancing to these islands.
Analysts have also stressed that some Russian “military journalists” complained that low-intensity artillery fire allowed Ukrainian troops to land on the eastern bank due to the over-centralisation of the Russian military command.
Quote: “Russian forces may be prioritizing maintaining defenses in urban areas such as Oleshky and Nova Kakhovka, leaving the islands in the Dnipro River delta unmanned. The extent and intent of these Ukrainian positions remain unclear, as does Ukraine’s ability and willingness to maintain sustained positions in this area.”
Details: ISW has highlighted that it was the first time that it recognised the territory on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast as controlled by Ukraine, as it had only just received reliable geolocation images of Ukrainian positions on the eastern bank, as well as Russian reports from various sources of a continued Ukrainian presence in the area.
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“The extent and intent of these Ukrainian positions remain unclear, as does Ukraine’s ability and willingness to maintain sustained positions in this area.”
The extent should be kept secret. The intent should be obvious. And, I’m sure that the willingness to maintain is strong.
I’m surprised that the orcs made it so easy – apparently – and that this happened so “silently”.
Does anyone know why filthy putinazi cockroaches are still polluting Kinburn Spit with their presence and not been expelled by now? The dirty pigs are still firing at Ochakiv almost every day.
If true about AFU being on the left bank, this will end very soon.
This looks like a prelude to the counter attack and I like it!
I doubt they will limit themselves to just a river crossing. I see the counter attack as being a multi pronged offensive designed to pull Russian reserves away from the main attack.
1) An attack from Lymann to fix Russian troops in the north and play on their paranoia that UAF are pulling a Kharkiv manuver and catch them off guard. To sell it as the main effort this should include a contingent of western tanks Only a company with much fanfare.
2) an attack threatening to cut off the Russians in Backhmut. Again a small contingent of tanks will need to sell it.
Then the fun really begins.
3) offensive towards Berdyansk that threatens to close the land corridor. The field fortifications are lightest here. Even if they only advance 10-20 Kms it will bring the Russian supply line along the coastal highway under long range artillery fire. Russia will have to commit reserves to stop this. Once the reserves are detected moving toward Berdaynsk the next attack can begin.
4) An amphibious across the Diniper. The main Russian defenses here are some 30 kms back from the river. This will threaten their supply lines from Crimea and their retreat. If unchecked it will make Crimea vulnerable to assault.
All of this is leading up to the main show.
5) An offensive south towards Melitopol. Because the estuary UAF only has to advance some 30kms and they will have cut the land bridgde. Once they are through the first two lines of defense a flanking attack will brake off towards the Diniper. This is the heavist defense that the Russians have built up. However no defense will hold without the troops to man them. This is for all the marbles so All of the UAF needs to thorwn at it.
The UAF can hold back their main armored force until a breach is made then it can be there. the beauty of this is the UAF have internal lines of communication. Any where the break through happens they can reinforce it in a matter of a day. Russian reinforcements have to travel days to go from the north to south to reinforce Kherson and Crimea.
Russia has only one good defeat left in them. A UAF success anywhere will force them to the table. However the most primary objective will be to break the land corridor. The second most important will be to secure Eastern Kherson and isolate Crimea.
Yes this war will end with diplomacy, they all are. However it must be with Ukraine in the stronest barganing position.
I believe the focus of the counterattack will be Melitopol too. Plus the partisans have been very active for a long time. It could be a twofer, one to cut their supply lines and two to get within range of that ill gotten bridge.