Analytics confirms dates of counteroffensive announced by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
❗️ Disclaimer. It should be noted that this article does not disclose any strategic classified information about the plans of the General Staff of Ukraine. Molfar analysts have collected and analyzed the facts that confirmed the official statements of Ukraine’s military leadership.
The Molfar OSINT agency analyzed all known facts of destruction of electronic warfare systems (EWS) and radars of the Russian army from February 2022 to April 2023.
In total, we managed to identify 133 facts of destruction, damage or capture of electronic warfare systems and radars of the Russian army. The total value of the destroyed systems is over $1 billion. Among the 37 identified types of complexes, the most destroyed, captured, or damaged were the Zoopark (11), Borisoglebsk (10), and Zhitel (9).
When analyzing the information, we noticed an important trend: the largest number of EWS and radar systems were destroyed on the eve of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counteroffensive operations in the Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson directions.
- March 2022: 18 electronic warfare and radar systems of the Russian army were destroyed, which preceded the Kyiv and Kharkiv counter-offensive operations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- September 2022: 13 enemy EWS and radar systems were destroyed, which preceded the large-scale liberation of territories in the south of Ukraine, in particular in the Kherson region.
- March 2023: 34 (!) electronic warfare and radar systems of the Russian army were destroyed, which may indicate the preparation of the largest counter-offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the full-scale invasion of terrorist Russia into Ukraine.
According to available data, a massive counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is expected to begin in April, most likely at the end of the second part of the month. The statistical forecast is also confirmed by the words of Ukraine’s Defense Minister, Oleksiy Reznikov.
The forecast for the counteroffensive is based on an analysis of the number of destroyed electronic warfare and radar systems of the Russian troops. However, we are also interested in the amount of damage caused by the destruction of equipment by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The following graph cannot be used to predict the timing of future military operations, but it clearly demonstrates the ability of the Ukrainian military to destroy Russia’s latest weapons regardless of their market value.
Methodology of cost calculation:
- Information on destroyed/captured/damaged Russian electronic warfare stations and radar systems was collected from open sources – General Staff of Ukraine reports, Oryx, TG, TW, news,Ukr.warspotting;
- Prices of known systems were found in open sources;
- Prices for systems for which the name is known, but the cost of which has not been made public, are calculated according to the cost of weapons of a similar class;
- The price of unidentified electronic warfare systems and radars (even the name is not known, only the fact of destruction is known) was calculated as the arithmetic average of unique known prices for electronic warfare systems.
👉 We remind that the calculated amounts are approximate, since the exact cost of all 37 electronic warfare/radar systems of the Russian armed forces is not publicly available, and after the equipment destruction often it is impossible to identify the type of equipment affected.
The total amount of destroyed equipment is ~$1001.917 million (over $1 billion). Part of this money – 13.5% or ~$135.26m – is now working for Ukraine’s victory.
The Ukrainian military destroyed the largest number of Russian’s EWS and radars in Kherson region – 12% of the total, in Zaporizhzhia region – 9.8%, in Kharkiv region – 7.5%, and in the Kyiv region – 6.8%. At the same time, the occupiers’ equipment was also burning on the territory of Russia in the Belgorod region – 0.8%; and in the temporarily occupied Crimea – 0.8% of the total.
In Ukraine, as of April 2023, we identified 37 types of electronic warfare and radar of the Russian Armed Forces. We have sorted them by the number of destroyed machines and the market value of the equipment.
The analysis of the Molfar OSINT agency showed an important trend of destroying electronic warfare systems (EWS) and radars of the Russian army before the Ukrainian Armed Forces counteroffensive operations. This indicates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are well-prepared for large-scale military operations and can effectively destroy the latest weapons of the Russian army.
The total amount of destroyed complexes is about $1001.917 million (over $1 billion), of which 13.5% (~$135.26 million) are now working in favor of Ukraine. As of April 2023, we have identified 37 types of Russian electronic warfare and radar systems in Ukraine, with the most destroyed being the Zoopark, Borysoglebsk, and Zhitel systems.
According to available data and forecasts, a massive counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is expected to begin in late April 2023. The data indicate that Ukraine is ready for the largest counteroffensive operation since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
You can read the details of the investigation and get additional data on all analyzed cases of destruction, capture and damage to Russian electronic warfare and radar equipment by following this link 👉 Report EN.
As we see, there are virtually countless factors to consider when preparing for a proper offensive. Destroying or capturing enemy electronics warfare systems is but one of them, although one of the most important, as was taught to Ukrainians by their American and British partners. Destroying the enemy’s radars makes him blind, and destroying his jamming devices preserves our vision.
The news is wonderful but how does this agency really knows what was destroyed? Even the recently disclosed pentagon papers didn’t seem to be so detailed. Is this a “feel good” report or is it real? I guess we will know in a few months
“…was collected from open sources – General Staff of Ukraine reports, Oryx, TG, TW, news,Ukr.warspotting;”
Those HARM missiles have really come in handy, as well as masterfully utilizing other means of destroying, rendering inoperable, or capturing rashist eyes. Way To Go AFU!!!
Since the very beginning of the full-scale invasion, there have been many reports about the destruction or capture of multitudinous mafia material, sir Cap, both in regular new media and social media. The vast majority gets lost to memory or has never been noticed by you or me or many others. Various osint and others do keep track of such things. It’s a very safe bet that what they’re saying in this article is legit. To be sure, you could do some research on it, since the material is open-source, after all.