The Ukrainian army will attack in several directions at once.

12.04.202

Amid US intelligence leaks on strengthening the Ukrainian army, the AFU General Staff is preparing not only for a counterattack but also for a large-scale deception of the enemy. Along with real plans, “legends” – fake plans are being created to mislead the enemy. First of all, it is about the direction of the main strike.

The Ukrainian army will go on the offensive in several directions at once. The southern direction may become a priority, but it is possible that this may be a legend – because such a choice of the General Staff looks too obvious. The enemy is probably preparing for active resistance here. In this situation, the military leadership must show the art of deception. Lieutenant-General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, expressed this opinion in an exclusive interview with obozrevatel.com.

– In your opinion, what impact did the leaking of classified information have on the course of the future counterattack?

– It is a complex, complex leak. Judging by the reaction of Americans, all or part of the information, which they would not like to make public, became available. The Ukrainian side says it is a fake.

The leaked information, however, suggests that perpetrators are obviously not supporters of the US and Ukraine. No information on the real situation in the Russian army indicate this.

Developing such an operation, and especially one as responsible as that of the Ukrainian army, requires a special effort. It is necessary to complete a defensive strategic operation in the east of the country. Its aim is to halt the enemy’s advance and force it to turn to defence, destroying its manpower and equipment to the maximum. As we can see, despite all efforts, the Ukrainian Defence Forces have not yet succeeded in fulfilling this task. The task may be completed by the end of the month.

It is also important, while carrying out these tasks, not to use the reserves for a counterattack. A plot comes first, then a plan for a counter-offensive, and the final stage is a cover plan. These are all things that will have to be done along with the preparation and real action of the forces that are objectively available, plus measures to mislead the enemy.

Generally speaking, war is first and foremost an intellectual struggle, and only then a troop-level struggle. Preparations for a counter-offensive are already underway. This data leak catalysed it.

I would like to refer to the experience of last spring and summer as an example of the actions of our Defence Forces. A counteroffensive in the Kherson direction was announced. The Russians believed this information, withdrew reserves from Kharkiv and Donetsk directions, from Izyum. Then a very successful counter-offensive operation in the Kharkiv direction was unexpectedly carried out.

I assume that the General Staff will pretend that they keep to the plan that has been made public, but they may implement a different plan.

Surely, Russian intelligence is now cross-checking all the data and trying to establish where the legend and where the real plan of the AFU General Staff lies. However, the leak dates back to the end of March. It may take a month for a counterattack. Many things may happen in a month. The situation can change. Therefore, if one acts wisely, one can take advantage of the situation.

– Do you accept that both Ukraine and the US have more than one plan for a counter-offensive? Is there a Plan B, Plan C and so on?

– One could call it variants. Of course, when a major operation is being prepared – and it is a major one – there are multiple versions of plans. One direction will be the main one, and some direction will serve secondary strikes. Most likely, there will be more than one strike.

For example, the leadership expected to achieve results in the main direction, but the enemy was very strong, and it was not possible to achieve early success. However, the situation in the secondary direction is good. Then the reserves are not introduced in the direction of the main strike, but in the secondary one. It becomes the main one. It will be decided in the course of combat operations.

It will also be clear to what extent the cover-up of the operation succeeded with the leaks and everything else. There was a case of cover-up in the history of World War II. The British left the body of their dead officer on the seashore with a fake plan in his clipboard. The Germans found this plan, believed it was real, and fell into a trap.

War is, among other things, also the art of deception.

– Let’s not make wild guesses and try to predict which direction will be chosen as the main one. How expedient is it from a purely military point of view for the Ukrainian army to focus on the south and the Crimea?

– This direction would have been prospective a few months ago, but at that time, we did not receive the necessary assistance from the allies. But, first, the enemy has organised a strong defence there now. Secondly, it is becoming obvious to everyone. Thirdly, there is a leak of information.

Given all these factors taken together, our General Staff may demonstrate preparations for an offensive in the south, but to strike elsewhere. I do not rule out such an approach either.

– Colonel Roman Svitan on the Orestokratiya Project said that the first phase of the counter-offensive has actually started. It involves drone attacks on Rascist logistical bases. He predicts that the Ukrainian army will destroy Russian logistics in the next month. Could you comment on that?

– This is clearly crucial. One could say it is preparation for a counter-offensive or the completion of a defensive operation. Anyway, it is necessary to destroy the enemy logistics. It is like we acted in the Kherson direction against the enemy grouping on the right bank of the Dnipro river.

Then we advanced, took the first line and faced a heavy resistance from the enemy. There we stopped, fortified and began to intensively deliver strikes. And we achieved result – they had to retreat. This variant may occur even now. It requires a large amount of ammunition and strikes, including these by planes, helicopters, drones, sabotage and so on.

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