The United States considered four “wild card” scenarios for the development of the war.
Secret Pentagon data contains US assessment of four “wild card” unlikely scenarios for the development of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
This has been reported by The New York Times.
It is noted that the analysis, conducted by the Defense Intelligence Agency a year after the start of the full-scale war, outlines four “wild card” scenarios and how they could affect the course of the conflict in Ukraine.
Hypothetical scenarios include the deaths of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a change of leadership in the Russian Armed Forces, and a Ukrainian strike against the Kremlin.
The document says the war will possibly be protracted. The analysis outlines four “wild card” scenarios, and describes how each of these situations could potentially lead to an escalation in Ukraine, a negotiated end to the conflict, or no significant impact on the course of the war.
The newspaper emphasises that such a scenario document is a fairly typical product for intelligence services. It is designed to help military officers, politicians or legislators think through the possible consequences of major events while assessing their options.
One of the four hypothetical scenarios games out what might happen if Ukraine strikes the Kremlin. A wide range of potential implications is identified. The event could lead to an escalation, with Mr. Putin responding to public outcry by launching a full-scale military mobilization and considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Or, public fears could cause him to negotiate a settlement to the war.
It is also noted that the Biden administration has been particularly worried about a possible strike on Moscow by Ukraine because one might prompt a dramatic escalation by Russia. The dangers of such an attack by Ukraine are one reason the United States has been reluctant to provide longer-range missiles to Kyiv.
“It is also noted that the Biden administration has been particularly worried about a possible strike on Moscow by Ukraine because one might prompt a dramatic escalation by Russia. The dangers of such an attack by Ukraine are one reason the United States has been reluctant to provide longer-range missiles to Kyiv.”
It’s clear that fear continues being very much a part of the Biden administration’s approach to this conflict. After more than a year of war, there is no sign of grab-the-bull-by-the-horn mentality. There is hiding-underneath-the-desk-and-shit-in-the-pants one instead.
Sad but true.