How long will the ban on flights over Ukraine last: Eurocontrol’s disappointing forecast

Oleksandr Topchyi20:00, 10.04.23

The aviation industry is affected by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Restrictions on civil aviation flights in the airspace of Ukraine , Moldova, Belarus and Russia will be in effect until 2029.

This is stated in the spring report of the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation (Eurocontrol).

“No return to “normal” routes (before the closure of the airspace of Ukraine and Russia) is expected until the end of the seven-year horizon,” the forecast emphasizes.

Experts note that after showing good results in the summer of 2022, the aviation industry of European countries continues to recover after the COVID-19 pandemic, which, among other things, is facilitated by the opening of borders by China from mid-January 2023. At the same time, the industry is affected by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Also, among the key factors that affect the forecast for the recovery of the aviation industry, in addition to the ban on flights, experts single out the general deterioration of the economic situation. In particular, a downward revision of the GDP forecast for 2023 and 2024 due to the impact of the energy crisis may negatively affect air traffic. High energy prices and the cost of living crisis will affect travel demand, analysts say.

The cargo segment of air transport has been severely affected due to limited operations of key cargo carriers. “After the increase in demand during the pandemic, the market share of the All-Cargo segment returned to the pre-pandemic level (4.2%) in 2022. The drop in cargo transportation caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine is now strongly affecting this segment,” experts note.

Eurocontrol also expects that the air traffic of the EU countries will return to the indicators of 2019 only by 2025. Previously, analysts noted that this will happen already this year.

(C)UNIAN 2023

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