2 APRIL 2023
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) states that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
Source: ISW report from 1 April 2023
Details: Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed on April 1 that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing the Donetsk and Luhansk oblast administrative borders by March 31.
The ISW says that the Russian milbloggers fretted that Russian forces must finish their offensive operations in Bakhmut and Avdiivka to prepare for the Ukrainian counteroffensives they expect between 16 April and 9 May.
Milbloggers highlighted their disappointment that there have not been any decisive battles throughout the winter and observed that Russia will not be capable of continuing a large-scale offensive operation if it is unable to secure Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the coming weeks.
ISW had long assessed that the Russian winter offensive is unlikely to be successful due to persistent failures of the Russian command to comprehend the time and space relationships involved in such a campaign.
ISW also assessed that Russia would lack the combat power necessary to sustain more than one major offensive operation in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, and ongoing recruitment campaigns in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories may indicate that Russia is preparing for reserve shortages.
Growing Russian speculation about Russian military command changes likely indicates that Russia may soon reshuffle its senior military command due to the failed winter offensive, the report states.
Key ISW Takeaways as of 1 April:
- Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by 31 March.
- Growing Russian speculation about Russian military command changes likely indicates that Russia may soon reshuffle its senior military command due to the failed winter offensive.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Russian forces did not make any confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut and continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.
- Russian forces continued to build defences in occupied southern Ukraine.
- Russia began its semi-annual conscription on 1 April, the largest conscription call-up since 2016.
- Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under rest-and-rehabilitation schemes.
- Russian nationalist figures criticised Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for failing to pursue the Union State between Russia and Belarus efforts since the mid-1990s.
Background: UK Defence Intelligence reported that the Russian military command’s plans to expand the territories under its control in Donbas during the winter offensive failed.
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“ISW had long assessed that the Russian winter offensive is unlikely to be successful due to persistent failures of the Russian command to comprehend the time and space relationships involved in such a campaign.”
You can believe me when I say that the ruskie generals are not real generals. They got into their lofty positions through ass-kissing and utter corruption. They are not capable of conducting a war as the one being fought in Ukraine. All the other wars had largely been fought by throwing enough men and material at the enemy. This is clearly not working in Ukraine. They are stumped and have no answers … except for throwing in yet more men and material than ever before.
“Growing Russian speculation about Russian military command changes likely indicates that Russia may soon reshuffle its senior military command due to the failed winter offensive, the report states.”
Replacing useless leaders with even more useless leaders, is not going to change anything on the ground. The russian military is falling apart at the seams. Different factions are emerging, all criticising the dwarf and his gang of rapists. Soon we might have a WW1 style situation, were russia pulled out, to have their own war in russia.
“Soon we might have a WW1 style situation, were russia pulled out, to have their own war in russia.”
In other words, a best case scenario.