From the FB page of Robin Horsfall
There is a gradual change taking place in the eastern front in Ukraine. In specific areas the war is very hot as the Russian desperately continue to force a breach in Ukraine’s defences but after several weeks of failure the cost to Russia in men, materiel and moral is starting to show. Rumours of Wagner troops withdrawing and going back to easier missions in Africa where they have technical and physical superiority are rife.
However, the real change is that UA forces are mounting reconnaissance missions in strength. They are probing and forcing Russia to react to what might be the beginning of an offensive. These probes will reveal Russian weaknesses but will also cause them to move troops constantly. This affects their ability to sit in fixed defences for any period of time.
At the same time supplies from the west are building up behind the front. The Challenger and Leopard tanks, the Self Propelled Guns the drones, ammunition and fuel are concentrating for when the time is right.
There is an information drought in Ukraine right now and this might be an indication that the pressure is building. The quiet before the storm. The weather will be an important factor.
To take on the Russian defences Ukraine needs a considerable advantage. They cannot achieve this across the whole front so they must concentrate their forces and achieve said superiority in one area. Where to concentrate is the question that the Generals need to decide and most importantly not reveal. The media must not report UA build ups, must not search for the exclusive that reveals UA intentions. It is the job of the press to report the news responsibly or not at all.
Security is vital, the crisis point is coming. I call on all journalists to ensure that they do not (unwittingly) become agents for Russian intelligence.
Who Dares Shares
Two days ago, Robin also posted a comment about the apparent deployment of tactical nukes in Lukashenkastan:
It might seem simplistic to relate international relations to a bar fight but when we boil down diplomacy with authoritarian leaders it does relate quite closely to a hero and bully scenario.
The two adversaries take off their jackets and leave the bar. The bully is confronted and has been knocked across the car park. Backed up and knowing that he is losing he utters threats about the future. He says ‘I will be back, I know where you live, I have a gun in my car. Best you back off now or it will be the worse for you.’
Putin is trying all these threats in the hope that one of them will create enough doubt to get Ukraine and more importantly their supporters to hesitate.
The most recent threat is to position tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. I don’t think the people of Belarus will be too happy about that idea, because it would focus a western response onto their country. That isn’t going to keep Lukashenko in power. His position grows weaker as his boss grows weaker.
In my analogy the bully makes his threats and the hero tells him, ‘Go ahead, give it your best shot. Throw your punches, get your mates or your weapons. It is my response that you must worry about, Do it now!’
Putin can rant and rave and perhaps he can escalate to tactical nuclear but what he and his supporters must think about it what is coming back. There is no advantage to that kind of escalation, no chance of achieving victory. The only advantage is in the threat and the potential reply is the deterrent.
Who Dares Shares
Robin E. Horsfall official :
“To take on the Russian defences Ukraine needs a considerable advantage. They cannot achieve this across the whole front so they must concentrate their forces and achieve said superiority in one area.”
This is despicably sad and unnecessary when you envision the masses of material the United States alone has sitting around worthlessly in depots, collecting rust and dust.