Front-line review with Roman Svitan
March 23, 2023
Russia began to suddenly transfer its troops to a new direction. It seems that the enemy is planning to create a “new Bakhmut”, because this is exactly what his actions near Avdiivka resemble.
This situation was commented on in the daily review from the front for Channel 24 on March 23 by Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reserve, military expert and instructor pilot Roman Svitan.
The Russians suddenly transfer troops
Now the Russians are urgently transferring troops to the direction of Avdiivka. The authorities even urged civilians to immediately leave the city .
The interlocutor explained that the primary task of the Russians in the Avdiivka direction is to move the Ukrainian troops away from the city. After all, from here our artillery can even reach Donetsk and Makiivka.
The entire Donetsk agglomeration is under artillery attack. For them, it is very painful, because they can not accommodate either in the city or in the suburbs. That is why they are trying to move our garrison away,
– explained Roman Svitan.
True, the Russians have been trying to do this for 9 years of the war. However, nothing comes out, because the city is located on a hill, and the line of defense in this direction was built very competently.
The situation around Avdiivka and the distance to Donetsk / Screenshot of DeepStateMAP
The officer also explained a number of reasons why the Russians were never able to capture Avdiivka or at least encircle the city:
- flat terrain around – in particular, the Donetsk airport, located between Donetsk and Avdiivka. The city itself is located on a hill;
- the impossibility of cutting off supply routes – for 9 years there have already been a lot of mechanisms for supplying ammunition and military ammunition;
- difficult terrain of the Karlovsky reservoir – one of the banks here is very high, and it is occupied by Ukrainian artillery, which controls and protects the area from encirclement.
Over the past year, every bush has been shot there. You don’t even have to wake up the artilleryman – he will put the required number of shells in any place in his sleep,
– the reserve colonel explained.
Report from the front with Roman Svitan: watch the video
Will the counteroffensive start in Bakhmut?
Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky said that the Russians are losing significant forces in Bakhmut, and soon the Ukrainian army will take advantage of this opportunity.
Our interlocutor emphasizes that the Russians decided to carry out their offensive operations at a very inconvenient moment. This is because there were no severe frosts in winter, and spring began with rains.
“The soil is wet, the equipment can’t really get through. Therefore, the Russians mostly carry out all these offensive actions at the expense of manpower, and they have such a problem – they can run out of steam,” explains Roman Svitan.
According to him, the Russians can try to advance for a month – maybe one and a half, but after that the human body will simply not withstand it. It is this moment that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can now catch.
At the same time, when it becomes already dry, it will be possible to advance, to carry out large-scale offensive operations. But it is unlikely that we will do this directly to those Russian troops who are now trying to put pressure on Bakhmut, emphasizes the Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
He suggests two other promising directions for the Ukrainian counteroffensive:
- from Belogorovka to Bakhmut
- from Belogorovka to Popasnaya
Perspective directions of offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine / Screenshot of DeepStateMAP
The military expert is convinced that the Russians themselves created the prerequisites for the operational encirclement of their forces near Bakhmut. After all, from Belogorovka to Bakhmut is only a little more than 20 kilometers.
Any movement within 10 kilometers from Bakhmut, 10 kilometers southwest of Belogorovka, is a threat to encircle the entire Wagner PMC. They understand this very well,” said Roman Svitan.
The generals of the Ukrainian army also understand this. Therefore, they are just waiting for the right moment – to go out on tanks and work not only on hard-surfaced roads, but also in the fields.
Like I said before, encircling the cockroaches by Bakhmut would be a sound military move, so going from Belogorovka to Bakhmut is a likely strategy. Of course, conquering Belarus and Transnistria would also be a grand idea.