22.03.2023 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
The creation of an encirclement of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, or cauldrons, was planned by the Russian occupying army. At the beginning, the enemy wanted to form two large pockets in the east of our country, then he was forced to reduce his “appetites”. Now he is trying to take Ukrainian positions into small pockets near Bakhmut and Avdiivka. With the first, nothing will come of it again, so efforts are concentrated on the hypothetical Avdeevka cauldron. For this, the enemy will transfer forces to there from Bakhmut.
Only the leadership of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Zaluzhny, knows what the plan of our army is in this direction. But it cannot be ruled out that a “surprise” awaits the enemy in Avdiivka. There he himself can be trapped. Such a forecast in an exclusive interview with OBOZREVATEL was voiced by a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Aleksey Hetman .
– The head of China, Xi Jinping, during his visit to Moscow , said that on the issue of war in Ukraine, “there are voices for peace and rationality.” At the same time, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, commenting on China’s ” peace plan “, stressed that the purpose of this plan is to freeze hostilities. If a truce is indeed declared, how big a threat is this to Ukraine?
– Any truce now will be in favor of the Russian Federation, because they need to regroup, they need to recuperate, complete the missiles that they are running out of, pick up old equipment from warehouses, etc. So far, they have already begun to pull out T-55 tanks from some unknown warehouses. It seems to me that hands will soon reach the T-34.
As for China’s “peace plan”, it really cannot be called that. It’s something like “let’s fight for all the good against all the bad”. There are only general phrases – respect the sovereignty of countries, etc. A real peace plan should include concrete proposals on how to stop the war, how to find a compromise. Although what kind of compromise can we reach with the Russian Federation while its troops are on our territory? So, the Chinese plan is beautiful words about nothing.
But the issue is timing. You said that the occupying army is already getting outdated T-55 tanks from warehouses. But we understand that tanks cannot be made quickly – this takes more than one month or even a year. It also takes more than one month to collect an additional 500 thousand “chmobiks” (meat puppets). In your opinion, how long can the Ukrainian army take to prepare for a powerful counteroffensive? How much time does the occupier need to organize his attack?
“Every day matters here. If we talk about relatively modern tanks, then about 20 of them per month can be produced in Russia. If we are talking about long-range high-precision missiles, then they can produce about 50 missiles per month.
If you start negotiations and declare a truce, it will not last a few days. Russia wants to start first, then revise something, meet again – and drag it out for a very long time. A month or two is what the Russian Federation needs to significantly restore its armed forces.
But, analyzing the capabilities of the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation, experts said: in order to restore everything that the Russian army has lost, they need 20 years. Russia suffers very heavy losses, no matter what they say about its military power. But in two or three months they can conduct a “young fighter course” for the mobilized, train these people, make at least 100 missiles, which is enough for one powerful strike on Ukraine.
They will have time to regroup the troops, restore order in the army, where there are already big problems with discipline. For example, on the left bank of the Dnieper River near Kherson, the Russian National Guard and the FSB are bringing order, because there are many cases of non-compliance with orders, desertion, etc.
So they need a break. Moreover, if a truce is declared, the Ukrainian army will not be able to carry out counter-offensive actions. At the same time, our military leadership noted that we were planning an offensive in April-May. That is, a truce may affect our counter-offensive actions.
– A question about the current situation at the front. Residents of Avdiivka are urged to evacuate, because this settlement is actually in a semi-encirclement. If you look at the map of hostilities, you can see that Bakhmut is in almost the same situation, it also looks like a semi-circle. How do you assess the danger of creating so-called boilers for Ukrainian army units?
– This is the plan of the Russian Federation – to create boilers. They tried to make very large pockets – through Bakhmut to the north, towards Slavyansk, to attack our positions at Kupyansk and Liman, in order to form one large ring. They planned the second large ring from Bakhmut to the south towards Ugledar, from there to the north. But the enemy did not succeed.
Now the enemy is trying to make a small encirclement near Bakhmut. But they fail to do this either – to surround our positions from the north and south, despite the fact that the distance between the northern and southern groups of Russians west of Bakhmut is only 3 km. But the enemy cannot overcome this distance.
According to numerous analysts, the fighting around Bakhmut has become less intense. Perhaps the reason lies in the fact that part of the occupying forces stationed there concentrated their efforts precisely in the Avdiivka direction in order to make the same encirclement there. After all, there are not only “Wagnerites”, there are also two air assault regiments and one motorized rifle brigade.
The situation there is difficult until they succeeded. Will it succeed or not? We believe that it will not work. But in war it is unacceptable to make such assumptions. Because the situation can change while we are talking.
– And yet, what about Avdiivka? What is your forecast?
– General Syrsky, the commander of this direction, and other military leaders are well aware of the emerging dangers. Of course, in response to these challenges, we will take retaliatory actions. What exactly these actions will be is the prerogative of our General Staff. But there is an assumption that many of those things that seem to us to lose are actually tactical actions of our command, including Mr. Zaluzhny, who is a specialist in creating traps for the enemy. It could be a trap.
Indeed, during the war, certain groups may be surrounded, but let’s believe that this is a trap for the Russians. Let’s believe in the best.
“It seems to me that hands will soon reach the T-34.”
This might not be so unrealistic. The cockroaches are being forced to draw on older and older weapons. An evil dictator doesn’t care what he sends his meat puppets to battle with. In the end, they will fight with bows and arrows, and clubs, if necessary.
If I was to bet on which generals will have the better battle plan – Zaluzhny or the cockroaches – guess where I would place my money on?
Soon Zaluzhny will have some serious bug spray.