Putin refused full mobilization: Shoigu mentioned the timing of the end of the war – ISW

Yana Stavskaya08:29, 14.03.23

The Kremlin does not expect the war in Ukraine to last longer than the next three years.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has refused full mobilization , as evidenced by a bill submitted to the Duma to raise the draft age.

The Shoigu project provides for an immediate increase in the maximum age of conscription from 27 to 30 years, as well as an increase in the minimum age for conscription from 18 to 21 years with an annual increase of one year from 2024 to 2026.

“The immediate increase in the maximum age in the bill is likely intended to widen the age range for conscription to meet some of the immediate needs of the Russian military in Ukraine, and then subsequently reduce the general conscription requirements for Russian society in subsequent years,” the statement reads . Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report

The gradual increase in the draft age means that the three-year groups of potential Russian conscripts will, in fact, receive deferrals of three, two and one years each, while the year-long draft groups of 2023 will continue to fight at attrition in Ukraine.

Analysts say the Kremlin may be trying to shield a new generation of Russians from the demographic and social impacts of the war of attrition in Ukraine by distributing those impacts among a generational group of Russians.

The schedule for reducing the draft age may also indicate that the Kremlin does not expect the war in Ukraine to last longer than the next three years. This proposed expansion of the age range for conscription is yet another additional force-building measure well below full mobilization, and indicates that the Kremlin remains highly opposed to the prospect of full mobilization.

(C)UNIAN 2023


  1. The putinazis may well feel that they can win after another three years. Sanctions are a failure, the BRICS will keep their economy ticking over, kremprop will keep the vatniks’ malignant minds poisoned with anti-Ukraine hatred and shills in the west will continue to do their job.
    The putinazis might lose c. 360,000 orcs this year, which won’t faze the kremlin murder gang one bit. Totalitarian fascist states care nothing about their own losses.
    The defenders may well lose 200,000 of their finest plus God knows how many civilians, which will hurt Ukraine very much.
    There is only one way out for Ukraine; the putinazis are negotiating exclusively on the battlefield. Ukraine know they have no alternative but do the same. Provide them with the capability to inflict unsustainable losses on the enemy and the nightmare will come to an end. Smoke 3000 orcs per day and the job will be done.

  2. “The Kremlin does not expect the war in Ukraine to last longer than the next three years.”

    We know what to think about any predictions from mafia land. The war was supposed to be 3 days, then 3 weeks, then 3 months and now 3 years. The longer the war takes, the less they have on hand to influence the time period of the war.

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