Director of National Intelligence says beleaguered military lacks ammunition and troops necessary to sustain its current level of fighting

By Josie Ensor, US CORRESPONDENT

8 March 2023 •

Russia will need to begin a mandatory mobilisation and receive a flood of weapons from China if it is to make any major territorial gains in Ukraine this year, according to a new US intelligence assessment.

Avril Haines, US Director of National Intelligence, told a Senate committee on Wednesday that the beleaguered Russian military lacked the ammunition and troops necessary to sustain its current level of fighting and may be forced to shift to a hold-and-defend strategy, dragging out the war.

Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, “appears to be focused on more modest military objectives now”, said Ms Haines, appearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee as officials released their annual threat assessment report.

“If Russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilisation and identify substantial third-party ammunition supplies, it will be increasingly challenging for them to sustain the current level of offensive operations in the coming months,” she said.

“And consequently, they may fully shift to holding and defending territories they occupy.”

After major setbacks and large battlefield losses, “in short, we do not foresee the Russian military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains”, Ms Haines told the Senate hearing.

Nevertheless, she added that Putin “most likely calculates that time works in his favour”.

The leader likely believes that prolonging the war, with intermittent pauses in fighting, “may be his best remaining pathway to eventually securing Russian strategic interests in Ukraine, even if it takes years”.

Moscow’s military power is now significantly constrained by troop losses and arms depletion that is exacerbated by trade restrictions and sanctions placed by the US and allies, she noted.

Ms Haines, reporting on the sum of views in the broad US intelligence community, said that one year after invading Ukraine but failing in his primary goals for the operation, Putin now probably has a better understanding of the limitations of his forces.

The threat assessment report notes that Russia wants to avoid direct conflict with the US, but setbacks in Ukraine could prompt Moscow to escalate the war.

“There is real potential for Russia’s military failures in the war to hurt Putin’s domestic standing and thereby trigger additional escalatory actions by Russia in an effort to win back public support,” the report said.