Robin Horsfall
March 1st. Just now.
The tactical withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Bakhmut has begun as predicted. The defensive performance of Ukrainian troops in this single town has been impressive and has cost the Russian a huge amount in men and materiel. Their losses in this one tiny zone are more than the manpower of the whole British Army.
The Russians placed a great deal of importance on this pinprick on the map making it symbolic of Russian progress. When Russian soldiers enter the town it will be projected by Putin as an important victory. In reality, Bakhmut never really had much more than a local symbolic value. However, defending the town did fix a large Russian force in place.
Now, the Ukrainians will move back a short distance to new defensive positions and force the Russians to start all over again. It is very exhausting to be engaged in offensive warfare without respite. The Russians are not rotating their men out of the battle they simply lose and replace them.
The rains have come and the land is turning to mud. Any chances of a winter offensive have passed. On the battle field this means that Russia must try to create an air war or a long range artillery war.
To fly the Russian air force must neutralise UA air defences otherwise the majority of attack aircraft would never reach their destinations. UA air defences have grown stronger and more mobile. They are layered across the country covering all approaches. Drones are disrupted by electronic weapons that take them off course, 80% of Russian missiles are shot down. If Russia intends to take the battle to the air in fast jets they will be shot down en-masse. If they attempt this it will be the end of the Russian air force permanently and possibly the end of Russia as a fighting force.
Long range missiles and drones aside, Russian artillery has a shorter range than UA artillery. This range is of vital importance as it forces Russian headquarters and stockpiles farther back from the battle areas. The range advantage means that UA guns can strike Russian guns without fear of counter battery fire.
The mud will cause a pause on the front and there will probably be a race on both side to build up enough power to launch a major offensive when dry weather comes. With increasing support from the western democracies Ukraine will win this race. Russia will worry about where the attacks from Ukraine will come and spread its forces. Ukraine will concentrate its forces and choose a direction of attack. I expect that attack to be directed at Crimea but Ukrainian Generals are experts at deception.
The only way Ukraine can lose now is if the democracies (especially the USA) lose their will to continue. This must not happen. The coming months will be a tipping point in this war. We must not grow weary of providing our full support, we must not grow tired of hearing about the courage of Ukraine, we must not fail our friends.
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall
I don’t know where Robin got this info; it doesn’t appear on mainstream news sites at present.
Oleksii Goncharenko reports on FB that there are confirmed to be 360,000 fucking orcs polluting Ukrainian soil.
That’s well over twice what there were a year ago.
That’s a fucking ginormous horde of scum.
Ukraine badly needs air support at the very least.
Who will offer?
Crickets….
It should be obvious that no one wants to see a quick end to the war or a total defeat for mafia land.
“Russia will worry about where the attacks from Ukraine will come and spread its forces.”
A pincer movement with Bakhmut in the middle would be like plunging a dagger into the heart of the enemy. This would trap a very large enemy force, partially made up of their best units. Mafia land could not recover from such a blow. After that, the rest of the front lines would do a domino number.