11:30, 02/19/2023

Russian human rights activist and opposition politician Mark Feigin in an interview with UNIAN spoke about the upcoming big offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, spoke about possible agents of Western and Ukrainian intelligence surrounded by Putin, and also allowed NATO to participate in the war.

Let’s start with Rammstein. On the one hand, we haven’t been given long-range missiles yet, but on the other hand, there were some interesting moments at the Austin briefings, Millie. Andriy Piontkovsky points out that there were phrases about turning points, that the Ukrainian offensive would take place in the coming weeks. Do you have the feeling that our Western partners are pushing and pushing us towards this?

First, the West knows something. See what unprecedented activity. And Biden, who has carefully made decisions about moving closer to Kyiv all year, is now on his way to Warsaw, and, God knows, maybe even end up in Kyiv. Maybe he will visit Lviv, symbolically meet Zelensky on the territory of the warring Ukraine.

The West would not move Ukraine if it did not know something that we do not know. Throughout the year, the position of the West in terms of forcing the de-occupation, the offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine was very cautious. To be sure, the decisions were made in Kyiv, but military experts from the Pentagon were undoubtedly working with the military and political leadership in Kyiv. And they have always held the position that one should be more careful with this, because the Russian potential is not fully understood, what reserves, forces and opportunities the Russians have. And since the beginning of the year, they began to gallop to transfer armored vehicles to Ukraine, quantitatively increased a number of ammunition. Apparently, there is something that remains behind the scenes. I am also driven to this by the thought that the planes were discussed and discussed, and something like this: “No, we need to take a break.” Such caution precedes some big decision

Is the West pushing Kyiv towards a decisive offensive and de-occupation of territories? Or it will be a cutting of the front – eastern and southern – by a campaign against Melitopol, or the landing of some kind of landing force on the left bank, where the Kinburn Spit is, or it will be a breakthrough to Donetsk. I don’t know, I’m not a military expert. But something like that, more or less prepared from the point of view of providing personnel, intelligence and from the point of view of understanding that there is nothing to resist in certain areas of the Russian Federation.

What else could have prompted this? Moscow held a global IPSO about its offensive. But, as we understand, the offensive is already underway. So they tried to go to Vuhledar, we see the hottest point – Bakhmut, where significant forces are involved, exceeding the Ukrainian defense. But the achievements are modest. If this is the beginning of such an offensive, then definitely and definitely it will not justify the calculations that Moscow puts on it. Perhaps this is due to the fact that the bulk of their forces are mobilized, not a professional army. These are people who have been trained for a couple of months, and apparently this is not enough. Maybe the American leadership has an understanding of this, which is watching everything and sees the picture more broadly. US intelligence stretches from the building of the Russian General Staff to the front line in Bakhmut. They listen to phones

I admit that, having seen how modest Moscow has the capabilities to carry out an offensive operation, plus having intelligence information that allows us to judge that the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can be successful, the Americans are really pushing Kiev. But Kyiv must be held back, Kyiv itself would like to go faster. Zelensky’s position is known, he is really determined.

The Americans have the whole picture. It is made up of many elements. And, perhaps, this picture allows us to organize and initiate a decisive offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Moreover, it is not known in what area. Maybe they even know which one.

You said that the West knows about something, and I immediately remembered how just a few days ago there were calls for US citizens to leave Belarus and Russia. Both Brazil and France applied. What does it say? We remember that before the start of the large-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, these same calls were made about Ukraine. What can happen in Belarus and Russia?

Maybe only Belarus is in the zone of such a defeat, where it is really desirable not to be American citizens. Let me remind you that in 2021, after the arrival of Secretary Pompeo in Minsk, the US consular offices were returned there. Now they, apparently, are empty, but someone remains there. From the point of view of getting into the combat zone, these could be the territories – Belarus, the occupied territories of Ukraine. Although I can hardly imagine US citizens in the occupied territories.

And I rule out that it’s because of the nuclear interchange.

I think it’s rather something else. The West admits that in the event of a lightning operation, they can become hostages. That these people can simply be intercepted at some point, concentrated in some places, giving an ultimatum. Why am I leaning towards this idea? The Americans specified that there were citizens with Russian and American citizenship who could be mobilized. And Peskov commented on this. He said: we don’t care what kind of second citizenship there is, for us all citizens of Russia are primarily theirs. Such people are certainly being identified – in Russia, criminal liability for failure to report the presence of a second citizenship. And the Russian special services are well aware of who is the person with the second passport.

Therefore, I do not exclude that this consideration is also here. We have seen many examples of hostage taking. They were isolated, but nevertheless it took place. And in a situation of “traps” how will the Moscow leadership behave? And the devil knows. Maybe like this, maybe like that. They can shoot someone.

It is clear that you cannot take everyone out, it is clear that someone will ignore it, someone will say: “This does not concern me.” In any case, publicly declare this, so that no one would say: “But I have not heard, I do not know,” the American leadership considered it necessary. Because really coming spring is a decisive stage of the war in Ukraine. And the United States, the West allow any development of events for themselves.

Moreover, this Russian IPSO in the form of Putin’s speeches at the Federal Assembly, concerts no longer affects either the West or Ukraine.

No.

Today Timchenko said that they are going to pass laws on the integration of new regions into the legal field of Russia. As a lawyer, can you advise what this new set of nonsense is?

I admit that they draw them up as subjects of the Federation. They must decide in what combination these regions can be included. I understand that the Constitution has not yet been amended. Whether it will be four subjects of the Federation or only three, they will unite Zaporozhye and Kherson. It’s a completely insignificant question. Who is interested in Russian legislation? There is no parliament, no laws. And where are the boundaries of these subjects? That is, they should formally define it all, but how will they determine it? All Zaporozhye and Kherson regions? To health. So they might just as well add New York to the Ryazan region.

To look back at what the Russian parliament is doing, as if some kind of action follows from this? This is wrong. Everyone can win in one second. Any negotiation process that Moscow is begging for can rewrite it in a second.

Now they represent a process of integration. Let them portray. I never attached importance to this, because, being a parliamentarian myself in the best years of this parliament, I can say that for 20 years in Russia there has not even been anything like a parliament, the State Duma is not like that.

Perhaps they will adopt some package of laws, make changes to the current legislation. But what does it affect? Does it affect the war? Does it affect Ukraine’s readiness for de-occupation? Does it affect the West in terms of recognizing these territories as Russian? It doesn’t affect at all.

PUTIN EXHAUSTED THE RESOURCE OF STIMULATION OF WAR THROUGH PATRIOTIC SLOGANS 

The only thing that this can affect is the internal consumer, who needs to explain something. Maybe they have already begun to ask questions: what are we doing on a foreign land and how can we defend Russia in a foreign country? Perhaps, for this, they say, these are our territories and they need to be protected?

They are saying the same thing now. No changes to the law. Well, go – protect, return in packages from these territories. I don’t think it adds much motivation now. It’s still a year of war. “Get up, huge country” works once. Works or does not work. And how it works, we have already seen: stout peasants rush across the border to Georgia, Kazakhstan and other borders.

Yes, there is a propaganda rage, but some very small part, especially those already exterminated, have personal enthusiasm to get involved in this. This is the peculiarity, the internal inconsistency of the post-Soviet imperial consciousness. They seem to want some kind of revenge, satisfaction from the “return”, the annexation of foreign territories, but the question of personal participation is always in no way connected with this. We see as many examples as you like, starting from the highest – the son of Solovyov, ending with the simplest. The people strongly differentiate between agitation, public expression of loyalty and personal participation.

I don’t see any reserve of enthusiasm. Stimulate – do not stimulate: “Holy War” or whatever else Kiriyenko came up with. Well, Putin will say this, and what will change? Will the war acquire some other shade? Will they start fighting with some other weapon, using other means? I do not understand this. All this is designed for round morons. So I don’t think it can cause any kind of enthusiasm.

But they call…

They call, they just say that in general the whole meaning of life is to die. Here Dugin formulated it in an extreme form, in contrast to them and their reservations – a meaningful life, a transition from one state to another, as this fool Solovyov says. And this one said bluntly: the goal of a Russian person is to suffer and die, everything else does not deserve respect.

The rhetorical game will continue. But I repeat when they say: a war of attrition, attrition of what? After all, not only material, but also spiritual feelings are depleted. A long war dulls a lot of things, including this frenzied patriotism.

This patriotic feeling and enthusiasm are depleted. And Putin’s words alone, his appeals, appeals to the Federal Assembly and shouts at rallies will no longer be able to stimulate more strongly. Well, let him call it a patriotic war – let’s mobilize even more. So, you have already mobilized and will continue. What will change? Can you give me a form? Modern tanks will appear instead of this junk? Aircraft of the fifth generation? Nothing will change.

I think Putin has exhausted the resource of stimulating the war through patriotic slogans and propaganda appeals. Even if the war goes to the territory of Russia, if they really shell Moscow, it’s not by chance that they deploy air defense systems there, I rather believe that this will bring more fear than cause more enthusiasm.

That is, no one will defend themselves?

Now, if you imagine that the troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will enter Shebekino or Belgorod, they will scatter like cockroaches. Further there may be some mixture of regular units, but border annexations … nothing at all. A simple layman who went to work will continue to go to work.

Do not wait. Moreover, the power in Russia is wild, built on eternal coercion, any weakening of such coercion can cause the opposite effect.

There will be no such effect that “I must die”, such a dichotomy: “if I love the Motherland, I must die”. How many people are ready for her to make a choice in favor of the second? Love – please, but die – no.

PRIGOGIN IS A FREE RADICAL AND GIRKIN IS A SYSTEM ELEMENT

And for what to die, it is not clear. When Ukrainians defend their land, this is understandable, they go not to die, but to defend. I remembered the call to Prigogine about Bakhmut. He said that there would be no holiday, that Bakhmut had not been able to be taken since autumn, because the Ukrainians were on the defensive, and that “if you want to make sure of this, take a machine gun and go to the front.” Why did Prigozhin suddenly become so frank, suddenly calling a spade a spade?

It’s been some time now. Remember the quote about Zelensky that “he’s a tough guy.” And Prigozhin is not the first time he says that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are defending themselves. And he calls Bakhmut, not Artemovsk.

Prigogine is trying to sell himself as a hard realist. This is the first. Secondly, he always wants to contradict the Ministry of Defense and his bravura statements in the person of Konashenkov, which is understandable, because they have a confrontation. Thirdly, it turns out some kind of nonsense. If Bakhmut was entrusted to him, why don’t you take him? So, you’re not so trump, or what? You cannot provide a solution to the problem. For sure, the task was set to reach the borders of the Donetsk region by March. And he publicly says: “But I can’t take it. You set me tasks that are impossible to complete, because the Armed Forces of Ukraine are pulling up reserves, they have Western weapons, they protect their home, they are more motivated and stronger, and I have prisoners who sleep and see how to smoothly move out of it all. There are still patriots there – he killed his mother, raped his uncle. Who said, that they really love their homeland? They were in the zone. Can you imagine what they did with them? They don’t love their country. Prigozhin is not a fool, he understands all this perfectly, and he is engaged in their disposal. Now, apparently, this is over, since there are other contenders for the use of this resource. But one way or another, Prigogine is trying to be a tough realist in the war.

Why is he saying all this while in the combat zone? I think that he portrays that everything is staged, he is a PR man. But he is not broadcasting at the General Staff in Moscow like Konashenkov or the first leaders. He shows that he is right in the war zone. Whether he is in the zone itself or at a certain distance, we cannot judge, but he is somewhere there, they see him there. And this, combined with his tough, realistic statements, is largely directed at the mass of soldiers, at the lower officers. So, he tells the truth that Bakhmut is really impossible to take. This should have the political effect he is counting on.

Which one?

The effect is: “You won’t kill me because I’m popular.”

Are the prerequisites for killing him still real?

Certainly. Get rid of him by hanging on him all the sins – from sledgehammers to an international criminal organization. They will say: “It’s not all of us, it’s generally a type, he was imprisoned for nine years. They killed him, they killed him like that. Everything happens in life.”

The false idea that the “roof” is stronger, that they won’t get killed because of scandals. The West and Ukraine will generally applaud, they will arrange a holiday. Rather, it is designed for an internal audience. If you kill Prigozhin, and the General Staff, all his ill-wishers, have such a desire, then who will fight? Who will replace him? And he is tough, but he gave the result – Soledar took it. I think he develops public activity based on this. It’s in that vein. Not in bravura.

For Prigogine, it is important that he has public support, so that it restrains the desire to resolve the issue with him.

Maybe I’m wrong, but now Prigogine reminds me a little of Girkin. Or rather, his rhetoric.

Of course, this is partly true. But still, Girkin, in spite of everything, was an institutional element. He is an FSB colonel and has served there all his life. Girkin is a staff member, he has been in jail for nine years for robbery and with suspicion of involving minors in prostitution. Prigozhin is a completely free radical, a businessman. He has no title, no position. He says I am the senior commander of Wagner PMC. And what kind of position is this? It is not clear at all.

Rhetoric – yes, but Girkin is much more alien to the General Staff, to the authorities, even though he himself comes from Lubyanka. Lubyanka is his home. If they come to eliminate him, they will do it.

And almost all of Prigogine’s enemies. He is also connected with the Lubyanka, with Patrushev, but only because it is instructed by Putin. This is a personal relationship between Putin and Prigogine. I think at one time he carried out some dubious assignments for Putin, being his cook. restaurant, parties and so on. God knows who he pulled him up.

Girkin is just an element of the system. It is very beneficial for the special services to voice the mediocrity of the army leadership.

FSB profitable?

Yes, because it relieves them of responsibility: “We are not fighting, we are an institution for other purposes.” He says things that everyone understands anyway. What’s new? Some metered information has been supplied to him by his colleagues since those years who are in the so-called “Novorossiya” – “L / DNR”. Not all, but some things he knows. On the other hand, all these generalizations about the fact that “plywood generals”, “swindlers”, “embezzlers” – what’s new here? Everyone knows this. This is not a secret for anyone, almost public facts. War is a way to make money.

Girkin says things that do not carry any secret, but in connection with his background are perceived as revelations. He is a life sentence, he shot down a plane, he was called the Minister of Defense of the “DNR”. The background creates an image for him that follows him.

Prigozhin takes others, because Girkin does not have 50,000 men under arms. Now, perhaps, Prigozhin has less, but he received this permission from above. It’s not that he created the PMC himself, it’s impossible in Russia.

Still, Girkin is a more manageable and predictable figure, despite all his radicalism.

OLIGARCHS’ DEPENDENCE ON MOSCOW IS HIGHER THAN YOU SEEMS 

Andrei Chernyak, a spokesman for the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, said that Ukrainian intelligence is cooperating with people from Putin’s entourage. The intelligence officer noted that these people in the Kremlin are only capable of overthrowing Putin if he is sufficiently weakened. If he loses power, he will be destroyed. Who could these people be? And what does “Putin will weaken” mean? Has he weakened yet?

First. Military intelligence is engaged in some provocation of the situation, including. This is a common operational thing of psychological, informational impact. You say: “Everyone around you is our agents.” And the object begins to go nerve. I admit that this is also said in order to cause a provocative effect. To look at the reactivity of the ciliates of the shoe, you need to poke it with a needle. I think it definitely exists.

As for the agency. It’s hard for me to judge, I can’t imagine the drunkard Medvedev, who in the evenings snaps off cipher messages to Kyiv about Putin’s plans. I think that the American intelligence services, the CIA have long-standing contacts. I cannot call them ordinary operational cooperation, but I can quite say that some kind of communication is going on. There is a very important lubricating moment of these relations – the oligarchy. It is certainly closely connected with the military leadership, with the FSB, with the Presidential Administration, with the government. They appointed their ministers. Of course, all these “Abramovichs” have some kind of contact. It’s ridiculous to deny it. I would not rule out that the Ukrainian side also has some contacts of its own, perhaps peripheral ones. On the other hand, there is interest. If Moscow won in two or three days, then there would be nothing to talk about. But the prospects are not the brightest. And there are a lot of fools out there. The apparatus is full of fools on all floors. And there are such fools who certainly understand this. That tomorrow it can be pinched so that the “jam” will flow, as they say. Such people can start to fuss.

The oligarchs are the first to benefit from this war. For example, sanctions against Alfabank.

Of course, all this is unprofitable for them, they suffer from it. They don’t need it at all. They are generally about theft, earnings, pleasure.

Another thing is that having a relationship with them is also very dangerous. For example, the role of Abramovich, who is a trusted party to the Ukrainian authorities, is also dangerous. This is a person, and in general people of this class, whose cynicism must be multiplied by 10. They can hand over, sell at any moment. The fact that Abramovich “suffers from the death of people” is designed for idiots, for the finished ones. He is concerned about only one single thing – so that his capital is not taken away, given the opportunity to live as he lived, to return to London or somewhere else, he has a fan of passports. It doesn’t help him now. And if there are American sanctions, he can flush them down the toilet.

These people will never do anything that would be contrary to their direct interests. It will be necessary to continue the war, they will be the first to shout: “Come on the second “battle.” Therefore, one must be extremely careful with them, even if they sell themselves as intermediaries in exchanges and so on. This should not inspire the illusion that they are strong people, that due to contact with them, the environment expands, that they can somehow be useful. They can be useful only up to a certain stage, because they do not have decisive power and strength. They have the army, the FSB. The dependence of the oligarchs on Moscow is higher than it seems , they are also under the gun.

So, I think the GUR MO is not deceiving, they really have something.

As for Putin’s condition, that he will weaken. Putin is in his eighth decade. You know how it often happens: all the rumors are true. Or none of them are true. What is his state of health, how does he survive defeats, how does he look for enemies in his environment and is paranoid about this? Apparently this is happening. Why doesn’t this happen? Why shouldn’t he be a suspicious maniac? And this is taken into account, there is a certain impact on this. Maybe he even got something in there. Someone was framed and sent audio with negotiations with some such dude. Easy. To cause a split, so that the rats start eating each other. And it’s possible.

There is almost 100% of what we all know, but there is 1% of a hundred that is known to a trusted circle of people – top management in Kyiv or Washington. There is something that is not supposed to be discussed publicly, because it is strategic information that some people from Putin’s circle are probably passing on. This may concern his health, his intentions to use nuclear weapons, things that can affect him – children, grandchildren. When it comes to the sharp, no one will fuss and in nothing. It will be necessary – they will decide through everything. Or the planet in ruins? Thousands of people die every day. Why reflect on this? One more, one less. Everything will be extremely cynical. This understanding that the West can be like this inspires fear. That if necessary, they will kill, slaughter or drown. And the kids of someone in the West. They can. If they don’t understand. If the price of the issue is raised, escalated by the Kremlin to an unacceptable degree, everything is possible. And it can stop. Perhaps not Putin himself, but his entourage, I don’t know.

This ultra-exclusive information can influence the course of events. Maybe some decisions that we discussed at the beginning are connected with this information.

DEFLECTORS HAVE NO PLACE IN EUROPE 

The story of the flight of a Russian engineer associated with the development of the Tu-160 missile carrier. He was caught on the border with Mexico. According to him, he fled from the persecution of the Russian Federation, that he is in opposition to the authorities. And so he began to give out some information. We remember Andrei Medvedev, one of the Wagner PMC commanders, who fled to Norway and began to testify. By how much will such cases increase?

I think there are a lot of them now. It’s just that not everyone goes public. And not all of them have information. And also, did this developer-engineer leak this information himself or was he told to leak it on purpose? He also asked for asylum by crossing the Mexican border. This is a well-known corridor, it is crossed in the California area.

Surely, the American intelligence services have a fair amount of such people. As far as they are valuable and have information, I do not presume to judge. I do not understand how important it is to understand the modifications of aircraft models, experts will better tell about this. There is some information about how it works, who is the management of the plant. He probably brought with him some drawings that might be of some technical interest. But in Russia everything is so backward. If we talk about the Russian military-industrial complex, then, in my opinion, there are no mysteries for the American leadership. If they are, then this is 0.5%. Everything else is fairly transparent. Nobody has anything. There are no military operations in the theater, therefore, to judge by some secret developments of “zircons”, “Poseidons” … I think they already have all this.

As for the rank-and-file officers and commanders, many more of them have fled. There are also non-public figures, they are being prepared for trials. I know that a big trial is being prepared for PMC Wagner in the UK, British lawyers contacted me. This is one part. They don’t have any valuable information. What is she? That they are all animals, cannibals and sledgehammers kill each other? So it’s not hidden. That there are shootings there? What is the riddle? What, we didn’t know this even without Medvedev? They also knew about the atrocities against the civilian population and the enemy.

I don’t rate these defectors highly in terms of media. Yes, it makes a public impression, Western public opinion is surprised, but there is nothing valuable in their information.

I am critical of this. I think they have no place in Europe. Why should they all move to France? In Oslo? This is what I don’t understand at all. I know cases of people who served time in prisons for anti-war cases and cannot get a humanitarian visa. There are such cases.

And these come and receive benefits …

Yes. “Look, I am a valuable material. Protect me and give money, and yum-yum.” Well, then let all 300 thousand move and say: absorb us. I understand that this is a humanitarian, political issue. And then there are utilitarian and legal questions. Maybe they are more important. But I am critical of this practice. I don’t hide it. I saw this story with Filatiev, the purest swindler and swindler.

I don’t think you should ship them all. They want to clear their conscience, well, my friend, you need to go through catharsis – stay in Russia, they say, and they condemn those who are outraged. And how did you want? You served, fought, went on your own, all the more so as a contract soldier in Wagner PMC. So let your comrades deal with you, and thereby you will deserve purification. And why should they all immediately move here, to the West, to Europe? Also an interesting point. In Eastern Europe, these are not accepted. To appear like this in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, they will score. In Western Europe, in my opinion, there is even an overabundance of them. It seems to me that they will not report any new revelations.

IF NATO INTRODUCED TROOPS, IT WOULD BE A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT WAR

Let’s then move on to the issue of Moldova. She is now also suffering from Russian aggression: missiles are falling on her territory, and there is a problem with electricity, and Maia Sandu said that Russia is preparing Moldova for the 2014 Ukraine scenario. What is the current situation in Moldova and will Ukraine be able to help, as Volodymyr Zelenskyy said?

I am sure that Moscow has such plans. Of this I have no doubt. There are pro-Moscow elements in Moldova, not to mention Transnistria. But now the Russian Federation has no opportunity to implement these plans. All this could be done against the backdrop of success in Ukraine. We have resolved the issue with Ukraine, now we have the next target.

As for Ukraine’s assistance to Moldova, it is possible. I believe that in case of victory, this limitrophe zone will be crushed. All this will be decided differently there, immediately. Because hot, tens of thousands of units of the Ukrainian army that came out of the war can solve this problem in one day. Yes, and with the help of Romanian, NATO forces, I don’t know. It will take a little, only a few tens of thousands. And those three thousand Russian servicemen who are supposedly there – for one day. No one will resist and fight. Where to fight? They will throw bombs at Tiraspol, and that will be the end of it.

Moscow understands that the victorious army of Ukraine is a tool for solving all problems in the post-Soviet space. That’s how life works. Lost – you lose everything. Yes, the Ukrainian army will not go to Russia, will not go to Moscow. I don’t believe in this, it will never happen. But she’s heading west.

In Moldova, in contrast to Georgia, there is a more consistent government, tuned to Euro-Atlantic integration. And Moldova sees that it cannot go on like this any longer, that missiles are flying over it, that it is necessary to decide all this once and for all. It is clear that all the predecessors of Maia Sandu were Moscow corrupt puppets.

Both the Moldovan and Belarusian scenarios are very real. Moreover, these are two border countries with Ukraine. In the event of a victory, no one else can afford to allow himself in the future that there are threats from part of the union state from Minsk or from Transnistria to the Odessa region.

This is an important element of geopolitical change in this regional space. And I think that it was no coincidence that Zelensky made this fact public in order for it to be a signal for some groups. This is a sovereign state, why should there be some kind of separatist enclave there.

Yuri Felshtinsky said that NATO should intervene in this war, and it will intervene. That’s the only way to end it. Do you think this is a real scenario at all? There was information that NATO was already carrying out instructions for resolving the conflict in which case.

He is right. In order to finally solve the problem, Ukrainian forces alone cannot do. Now it is getting by with the forces of Ukraine and the weapons that are being transferred by the Western allies. But, apparently, this is not enough.

Another question is in what capacity and on what scale NATO forces will be involved. I would not rule out that they may turn out to be peacekeepers in some territories, become a buffer between Ukraine and Russia. And if Crimea is taken, some peacekeepers will also come there. Yes, Ukraine, its authorities and military units will come, but some sort of delimiting NATO forces will be stationed in the area of ​​the bridge. Why not? For example, if Transnistria is again deoccupied or reintegrated into Moldova, parts of European armies may also arise to ensure law and order there. Will they be NATO or under a UN mandate? Rather, NATO, the UN is not an organization that can act effectively.

Is it possible to assume that NATO forces will be directly involved in the conflict? Some countries, yes. For example, in the case of Belarus. Polish and Lithuanian military units can become involved, due to the general situation, they can provide protection for the population – Polish and Lithuanian, which is in Belarus, and to solve common problems.

Felshtinsky is referring to the involvement of NATO directly in the theater of operations in Ukraine. Well, it must be some special situation. For example, the use of nuclear weapons. Then yes. I believe that NATO will want to stop one day. And then it will be logical for them to send their troops everywhere. But this is a completely different war. This is no longer a war between Ukraine and Russia. Use of nuclear tactical weapons or something similar. Other rules will begin to operate, there will be other goals and targets, a different answer. And Moscow will avoid this in order not to come to this. I think. Everything is possible. The world is full of idiots. But there is already an understanding of the consequences in Moscow. The Americans have repeatedly stated that it will be very painful. Clearly, this is an element of intimidation, but I would not rule out that they would want to fire a rocket and solve the problem with one little old man.

Perhaps Moscow is not such a fool as to go to such an aggravation. Maybe. Will be avoided.

A year ago we thought exactly the same.

Agree. But they did not cross some borders that are dangerous for them specifically, personally. They started the war, it was predicted. They were sure that everything would be decided in 2-3 days, and then they would be friends with everyone. But this did not happen. And now what? Exacerbate the situation? They exacerbate it, but to the limits that, conceptually, are “red lines” for them. They understand that their intersection is already irreversible, fatal.

Are NATO forces ready to get involved? This is not a question of combat readiness, they have been preparing all year. Look, they are pulling parts time after time closer and closer to Romania and Poland and the Baltic countries. In general, in Europe it is customary to increase the contingent to 300 thousand, before that it was 60. They will increase, they will create new military bases, missile, air bases, motorized infantry units. Of course they will, because they are dealing with a monster. Fear and prepare. This is the saddest thing the Kremlin could achieve – to turn itself into an object of both fear and a target at the same time. Now everyone wants to kill them, destroy them, multiply them by zero. It is necessary to manage to turn the country not just into an outcast, but into an enemy that everyone wants to kill.

(C)UNIAN 2023